2018 Arkansas Derby @ Oaklawn

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Oaklawn Park - RACE 11
Saturday, April 14, 2018

1 Beautiful Shot (FL) - 30/1
2 Machismo (KY) - 20/1
3 Tenfold (KY) - 10/1
4 Dream Baby Dream (KY) - 15/1
5 Solomini (KY) - 2/1
6 Magnum Moon (KY) - 8/5
7 Plainsman (KY) - 30/1
8 Quip (KY) - 9/2
9 Combatant (KY) - 6/1

www.equibase.com/static/entry/OP041418USA11-EQB.html

[bobtailnag]

Every one knows who the main players are in the race. Think I might play a 5-6/8 exacta.

[frangooch]

I think Tenfold has a shot to hit the board.

[bobtailnag]

10/1 Does look better than 9/2.

[eye123]

Optixeq

#3 TENFOLD (10-1)" I made him the pick in here", knowing well the two favorites are definitely the ones to beat. Both of his starts have been solid. The last race was run over what seemed to be a deeper track, and horses were struggling to pass and make up ground in the lane. He had to be ridden closer to the pace to have a chance. Obviously he can sit close to the pace if needed, but does not strike me as one dimensional. Granted this is a serious test, he is the one new face that seems the most capable to take on the big two.

[bobtailnag]

Good luck eye but I gotta stick with Quip even though h=his ML is half of Tenfold's. Ten's last out was against a $75k OC field and only won for a length. Quip also won his last by only a length but that was a G2 field. Admittingly that was one of the slowest G2's we've seen in a while. I think both our horses are still growing and either one could surprise is group but I'm don't think either has much of a chance so I'm hoping one of those top two is having a bad day and Quip steals the Place.

Forgot to note that the pace numbers from each of their last races indicate Quip appears to have a better shot at making it to the board if one of the two leaders falter at some point down the stretch.

Quip - 77 89/109

Ten  - 84 87/96

[frangooch]

I'm wondering what to expect from Magnum Moon today. Quality is obvious, but he doesn't need to win to make the Derby. What does Pletcher want from him? Lean toward Solomini who absolutely has to show up?

[mysaladdays]

I was surprised that Solomini ran 3rd, to me he didn't look very good in the paddock. I dunno if he is a bad shipper or what.

[frangooch]

He didn't look that good in the race, either. Hope they don't run in Kentucky.

[frangooch]

Loved Stauffer's call, btw. Wish we could hear more from him.

[big18741]

Magnum Moon had everything go his way yesterday-he should've won by a large margin.

Ark Derby fractions 23.34 48.60 113.39 137.87 149.86
Oaklawn Handicap 22.97 46.63 111.53 136 14 148.28
Northern Spur 23.54 47.78 112.36 137.31
Allowance OC 23.55 47.77 112.58 137.36

Magnum Moon crawled along on the lead with Quip stalking.
For Quip to barely hold on to second in a blanket finish with three other horses tells me he has no business in the Derby.
I give the 1-2 finishers credit for carrying 4 lbs more than the field but that was made up by the glacial pace and inside paths they were on.

Magnum Moon was drifting in and out winning the Rebel but yesterday he took a right turn in deep stretch.
Given the crawling pace and how bad the drifting was Magnum Moon doesn't interest me in the Derby as a 3rd or 4th choice.

Solomini had everything go against him.
No pace,widest on both turns and he still managed to get his nose up for 3rd and in another step would've gone past Quip for 2nd.
Horse tries hard every time.Obviously lacking in talent compared to some of the top 3yo's but he'll keep grinding and there are worse horses to use for the bottom of the super.

[frangooch]

Just read Moon got a 98 Beyer. Not fantastic.

[1hooper]

Big,without knowing the number Solomoni ran yesterday,are you concerned that he has not come close to the figure second time out? Maybe he gets back to it in Derby?
Hooper

[big18741]

I'm expecting he got back close to it yesterday given all of the wide.

[longshot]

I saw where Solomini got a 92 Beyer for the Arkansas Derby. That the same as he got in the Rebel and 1 point below his best.

[bobtailnag]

I think Combatant ran a credible race for a horse that's a stayer and needs a pace to run his best race. He certainly didn't get anything like that and was closing
late it within about 5 lengths of the winner. He has about a 5% chance to win the derby but a very good chance to be part of the super.

[Deleted]

3 & 9 certainly ran very good races...and should be ready to roll on the under cards on derby day or there abouts.......lol...

[mysaladdays]

Apr 15, 2018 13:12:00 GMT -5 big18741 said:

For Quip to barely hold on to second in a blanket finish with three other horses tells me he has no business in the Derby.

I guess you could look at this more than one way.  Some of these horses who win the prep races can't run "good"  past 9F, and we will see many of those in the KY Derby.  The horses who ran 1-4 in the ARK Derby posted the quickest closing fractions out of all the other derby preps...when they're all wobbly-legged in the stretch at Churchill, give me the horses who run faster as the race gets longer.   

Magnum Moon drifting out in a race that is shorter than the KY Derby was not a good sign for me.
Solomini looked horrible in the paddock, and that was confirmed by others around me in person.  He didn't run so great here....he couldn't beat Moon or Quip, and didn't run well against Good Magic or Bolt d'Oro either.   

 
As for Quip, he may have avoided certain other prep races in order to make the gate and/or owners wanted to run in a G1 race.  He may need longer (like Hofburg, who I love, and won't do his best running til the distance is longer).  Quip's final fractions of 37.13 and 12.33 are very good, a nice RAN pedigree, but Tampa Bay Derby horses have terrible record in the KY Derby.   At any rate, all the ARK Derby horses had very good closing fractions.  If you like one of the Scat Daddy's, Combatant is a nice one with buckpasser.

[bobtailnag]

While I read all the comments and consider to which degree I agree or disagree with the authors; almost all these opinions, including my own, go out the window after the official PPs become available. I start the analyzation process all over again. Position in the gate is if utmost consideration. Also important to me is identifying those horses who are short on experience and try to identify those, if any, that appear to possibly still might make a significant improvement. Quip is certainly one. There are probably others but until I can see all of them together where they are lining up, I'm not tossing anyone out.

[big18741]

Magnum Moon got away with a second quarter on the lead in 25.26 seconds with Quip sitting on his flank.
Assuming the timer/chart is correct THINK ABOUT HOW SLOW THAT IS for a grade 1 dirt race.

They ran it like a 12f turf race.
Of course several in the field were gonna finish fast.

Solomini and Combatant were severely disadvantaged sitting back off a brutally slow pace while having to go wide.

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