Today's contest race is very unusual in that 9 of the 10 entries all have "S" running styles. The 10 entry is a "E/P 4". 9 stayers plus a presser who hasn't hit the board all year. I nailed the last 4 contest races using my usual class, distance and form but all the better horses appear to be long distance specialists preferring to go 1-1/4 or longer in here. I'll either just pass this race or select one of the chalks. I'm leaning towards McCarthy's horse but for the wrong reason. I'm not choosing the horse, I'm choosing the trainer because he wins 20% of his graded stakes races.
Upon further review I have selected Next Shares. Usually once a make a selection I stick with it 97% of the time but this is the fourth different horse I've entered for this race since yesterday. Cleopatra, then Flamboyant, then Liam and now Shares. I'm just hoping if Shares doesn't win none of the other 3 don't either.
Thanks for the advice stranger. (Who was that masked man? His indian friend kept calling him Kemosabe.) I first reread the rules to insure it didn't say scratches would he replaced with the betting favorite, which it didn't. I sent my missive off a couple minutes ago and hop to get an answer sometime about 12 hours or so.
Post by bobtailnag on Jan 12, 2019 11:28:14 GMT -5
We have a speed demon in todays race, Selcourt 2/1, but she's never run on grass before. So, do you cover the favorite thinking she'll wire the field or do you gamble she won't handle the turf that well? My current thought is that she won't. I'll go with the 2nd choice, Belvoir Bay.
It now appears that yesterday's and this morning's rains in Arcadia will likely force the track to move this race to the dirt. Call that the "slop". It so, Selcourt will likely go off at 2/5 and several entries will likely scratch. I will probably just pass on the race.
Last Edit: Jan 12, 2019 12:17:36 GMT -5 by bobtailnag
Bobtail, I read that Sadler had entered Selcourt in case the race was taken off of the turf, and that she probably would be scratched if they run down the hill as planned. She is also entered in tomorrow's 4th race, which is a sprint on her preferred dirt surface. Looks like a cakewalk if that's where she makes her comeback race.
Agree that she is a questionable favorite if she remains in today's race on the turf. Didn't Harvey Pack always say not to bet as the favorite a horse doing something for the first time?
Edit: After posting this, I looked back at the SA entries and saw that Selcourt has been SCRATCHED.