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Post by tenfurlongs on Jun 18, 2024 16:26:54 GMT -5
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Post by spiderjohn on Jun 18, 2024 19:28:18 GMT -5
lol see below
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Post by spiderjohn on Jun 18, 2024 19:44:36 GMT -5
i did a much more detailed version of this, however lost it when I tried to post Grrrr….. ——————- Nice to read how most everyone had a good opening day.......same here, though nothing major Made a large win play that came through in the last jump, which enabled me to make a decent win play on the 6th--2 for 2 plus a couple of small exactas to cover most of my losers $ Looks more competitive Wednesday Queen Mary Always watching out for the Balding/Murphy team----they are often undervalued. Like #9 KASSAYA here and can't see getting 15-1. #17 MISS RASCAL seems to be the buzz runner, and Boughey's #5 ENGLEMERE might be worth a look. A few have finished behind #3 BETTY CLOVER. #9 win xbox 2-3-5-9-16-22 Queens Vase Aidan's #3 HIGHBURY is the top rated of the Aidans/Galileo/Coolmore lot, though we know that any of them could step up for the win. #3 seemed to improve 2nd out.I will be stubborn here and go with #1 BIRDMAN from the Ms Harrington/Foley team, who just happened to beat #3 first time out. #1 win xbox 1-2-3-4-16 Duke of Cambridge Coming back with #1 again, beause Willie McCreery is one sneaky shit who pops for a score when you ignore him, and nothing jumps out at me in this race. #1 win xbox 1-2-3-6-11-13 Prince of Wales A lot of runners here who take serious wagering $$$. Much talk about #10 INSPIRAL skipping the Queen Anne to go 10f here. I didn't think much of her prep, and don't like her here--leave it to me to doubt John Gosden. #2 AUGUSTE RODIN is an even bigger name + coming off an impressive run losing to WHITE BIRCH(who isnt here!). The French runners have a lot of class however this race is @ a warm dry Ascot. I will blow this up by playing #1 ALFLAILA. #1 win xbox 1-2-9 tri partwheel 2/1/all Royal Hunt Cup I usually skip this race. Noted that #1 SONNY LISTON lost to JIMI HENDRIX here last year.......and I did play #4 Holloway BOY when he won 1st time out here 2 years ago @ 40-1. xbox 4-6-8-9-11-20 skipping the 6th Windsor Castle no clue xboxing 3-7-8-12-22-24 good luck! |
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Post by tenfurlongs on Jun 18, 2024 20:18:49 GMT -5
Good write-up spider, thanks for your thoughts and analysis. Mostly thinking along similar lines to you.
R1- 5f Queen Mary Stakes (Group 2) (Fillies) (Class 1) (2yo)
I need to lay off these 5F 2yo races, I put too much in and get little back out. Came up with #3- Betty Clover (15-1) which has done little wrong in three starts, likes good ground and should have every chance from PP15 given some pace on the stands side. #9- Kassaya (15-1) expensive ($1.27M) Kingman filly from Juddmonte/Balding has a win and a second in two starts, also has four SW siblings including Dewhurst (GI) & 2000 Guineas (GI) winner Chaldean. Has a high draw in PP21 which historically and yesterday was a favorable location.
EX- 3,9/3,5,9,12,16,17
R2- 1m6f (1m6f34y) Queen's Vase (Group 2) (Class 1) (3yo)
3yos that should be pointing towards the Melrose or ideally the St. Leger (GI) later this year. #4- Illinois (7-1) was second to Derby second Ambiente Friendly in the Derby Trial over good ground, no way a Galileo colt with Ryan Moore goes off at that m/l. #7- Meydann (8-1) progressive Frankel colt wants good ground, won Listed race last out, Buick rides for Simon Crisford, I'll take every bit of m/l price.
EX- 4,7/1,3,4,7,12 WIN- 7 >= 5-1
R3- 1m (7f213y) (Rnd) Duke Of Cambridge Stakes (Group 2) (Fillies & Mares) (Class 1) (4yo+)
Real head-scratcher of a race. I'll stubbornly stick with #12- Royal Dress (12-1) even though she appears to be better over ground with some cut to it. She had absolutely no room to run for most of the last two furlongs at Epsom last time, would have won with any kind of luck or seam. Must bet back. #13- Running Lion (15-1) drew wide in PP11 but should appreciate better ground, hoping Murphy breaks well and can sit in the second flight early, this filly has got to have a big race in her for the Gosdens, maybe today is the day.
EX-12,13/1,9,11,12,13 WIN- 12
R4- 1m2f (1m1f212y) Prince Of Wales's Stakes (Group 1) (British Champions Series) (Class 1) (4yo+)
Clearly Auguste Rodin and Inspiral are the two most accomplished runners in the race, but you can get paid if you can beat them. As John Gosden said the other evening to Nick Luck, "Baldrick has a plan." {see: Blackadder, BBC series} Inspiral drew the outside in PP10, so she'll be held up behind by Kieran Shoemark. She was able to win at 10F at SA last fall, but I think the uphill final furlong here could be her undoing. I believe Gosden reached out to Wm Buick with a two-race scenario, running #5- Lord North (20-1) at a too-short mile to put some speed back into him, and he will go to the front today and try to back the pace down. Auguste Rodin should move forward from his good second at the Curragh against White Birch, but failed to fire in his previous Ascot appearance, is probably best at 12F, and has lost badly three times on big stages with huge crowds. Also using #1- Alflaila (10-1) off the September break, he fires when fresh, drew well in PP2, and has won here previously. Shadwell and Owen Burrows work for these big days.
EX- 1,5/1,2,5,8,10 WIN- 5
"Am I jumping the gun Baldrick, or are the words 'I have a cunning plan' marching with ill-deserved confidence in the direction of this conversation?"
R5- Will wait to call an audible.
R6- Same.
R7- 5f Windsor Castle Stakes (Listed Race) (Class 1) (2yo)
I think that the US-based runner from Jose D'Angelo could make some noise in here. #11- Gabaldon (10-1) won the invitational Royal Palm Juvenile race at GP to get in, dueled through a half in :43 4/5 and drew clear. Nice draw in PP26, worth a saver stab. Otherwise, I'll make a 'cast a wide net' quinella play with three keys: #16- Pont Neuf (10-1) is two-for-two, drew nicely in PP23; #22- Shadow Army (9-2) may go off as the favorite, won a big $ Novice race at York over good ground, trainer Fahey is not to be overlooked; #24- Treasure Isle (4-1) looks like a prototypical Coolmore juvenile stakes-winner, hard to leave out.
QUIKEY- 16,22,24/12,17,21,23 WIN- 11
TW
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eye123
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Post by eye123 on Jun 18, 2024 20:26:50 GMT -5
(Source bet 365)
Queen's Vase - Illinois
The Queen's Vase, by contrast, is a race O'Brien has won seven times since 2007, with the likes of Mahler, Mikhail Glinka, Leading Light, Aloft, Sword Fighter, Kew Gardens and Santiago all scoring.
Moore has been on the two more recent of those, in 2018 and 2020, and has elected to partner Illinois over stablemates Grosvenor Square (Dylan McMonagle), Highbury (Wayne Lordan) and The Equator (Declan McDonogh).
Moore was on Grosvenor Square when he disappointed at Chester last month and prefers fellow Galileo colt Illinois now. They are joint top-rated coming into this contest.
Illinois went close in a French Group 1 on second start in October and has twice shaped with purpose this season in good races, including when second to Ambiente Friendly in Lingfield's Derby Trial in early May.
The winner was a cracking second to City Of Troy in the Epsom Classic since, while third home Meydaan won a Listed race at Goodwood on his next start. Illinois should have strong claims for his top team.
Prince Of Wales's Stakes - Auguste Rodin
The latest clash between Auguste Rodin and White Birch was expected to come here this week, but last month's impressive Tattersalls Gold Cup winner has ducked out.
That leaves last year's Epsom and Curragh Derby scorer seemingly with the path clear for Royal Ascot success.
The Deep Impact colt will have to banish memories of a no-show here last July in the King George VI And Queen Elizabeth Qipco Stakes but, having won the Irish Champion Stakes and the Breeders' Cup Turf afterwards, he bounced back from that in style.
White Birch had his number in the Curragh Group 1 last time, but Auguste Rodin was some eight-lengths clear of third in turn and has major claims of giving his trainer a fifth win in this race.
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Post by tenfurlongs on Jun 19, 2024 5:32:20 GMT -5
Non-runners for Wednesday:
R1- Glorious Kitty
R2- Grosvenor Square
R5- Silent Film
R7- Jm Jhingree
TW
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Post by spiderjohn on Jun 19, 2024 7:41:05 GMT -5
Didn’t notice that we can wager on a $.10 placepot p4starting with the 3rd) and a placepot p6(1st thru 6th) Very popular over there ———— Evidently not on TwinSpires Shows $1 minimum  |
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eye123
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Post by eye123 on Jun 19, 2024 7:47:17 GMT -5
Didn’t notice that we can wager on a $.10 placepot p4starting with the 3rd) and a placepot p6(1st thru 6th) Very popular over there ———— Evidently not on TwinSpires Shows $1 minimum You can bet a dime on XPRESSBET....but the pk4 takes into account all placings, so the payout is terrible. (paid $2.57 on a dime yesterday) The pk6 is also a dime (XPRESSBET) that paid decent. Odd Wagers: Odd payoffs (Royal Ascot) (Tuesday) $0.10 Pick 4 (5,8,12/4,5,7/5,8,13,18/8,9,16) Paid $2.57 (4OF4) $0.10 Pick 6 (5,6,11,13/7,10,16/5,8,12/4,5,7/5,8,13,18/8,9,16) Paid $540.64 (6OF6) |
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eye123
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Post by eye123 on Jun 19, 2024 7:49:41 GMT -5
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Post by spiderjohn on Jun 19, 2024 7:54:04 GMT -5
Called a placepot, eye
However deep the places
Confusing terminology here
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Post by mysaladdays on Jun 19, 2024 7:54:30 GMT -5
Wednesday June 19th: Really disliked this card but giving a try anyway R1: Queen Mary
Make Haste, Leonvani
Others: Betty Clover, Kassaya Longshot Bomber: Flicka's Girl (60-1) Sands of Havana (30-1) R2 Queens Vase
Meydaan, Highbury
Others: Illinois, The Equator Longshot: Imperial Sovereign (20-1) R3 Duke of Cambridge
Rogue Millenium, Laurel
Others: Breege, Sea the Lady Longshots: Doom (15-1), Gregarina (15-1) R4 Prince of Wales (Some not true 10F horses. August Rodin won 4 G1s at or over 10F plus 2nd in another G1. definitely not a miler.) (I do not have confidence in Inspiral) August Rodin, Royal Rhyme
Others: Alflaila Longshot Bomber: Hans Andersen (60-1) R5 Royal Hunt Club - with 31 entries, I will use more others than usual. I used swear words while capping this race.  Metal Merchant, Beshtani
Others: Coeur d'Or, Holloway Boy, Thunder Ball, Ropey Guest Longshot Bombers: Raadobarg (33-1), Crackshot (30-1) R6: Kensington Palace Stakes
Doha, HopefulOthers: Fakama, Summer of Love Longshot: Cell Sa Beela (20-1), Elim (20-1) R7 Windsor Castle
Cheval de Guerra, Shadow Army
Others: Treasure Isle, Sir Yoshi Longshot Bomber: Bretton Wood (60-1) Calyxoh (33-1) |
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eye123
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Post by eye123 on Jun 19, 2024 7:58:01 GMT -5
Called a placepot, eye However deep the places Confusing terminology here Yes, confusing to the US player calling it a pk4 lol (why bother wager..not worth the effort to place it) |
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Post by mysaladdays on Jun 19, 2024 8:00:53 GMT -5
Didn’t notice that we can wager on a $.10 placepot p4starting with the 3rd) and a placepot p6(1st thru 6th) Very popular over there ———— Evidently not on TwinSpires Shows $1 minimum I would not have noticed since I use Twinspires. (and Oaklawn Anywhere when at my local track, same thing). |
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eye123
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Post by eye123 on Jun 19, 2024 8:06:35 GMT -5
Called a placepot, eye However deep the places Confusing terminology here Yes, confusing to the US player calling it a pk4 lol (why bother wager..not worth the effort to place it) On second thought...maybe not such a bad bet if you can single all four races(as in a NY GSL wager) at a higher increment, say $10. 20-1 on your money. Hmmm |
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Post by mysaladdays on Jun 19, 2024 8:40:51 GMT -5
Wednesday June 19th: Really disliked this card but giving a try anyway R1: Queen Mary
Make Haste, Leonvani
Off to a good start: R1 Leovani won at 23-1. 12 $48.60 $10.60 Kassaya ran 4th. Definitely only playing some singles and exactas today....fields are too big. |
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Post by tenfurlongs on Jun 19, 2024 8:44:02 GMT -5
Great selection again MSD! I guess if you liked the card, you would have had the exacta and triple?  There's another triple that is going to pay big balloons. TW |
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Post by mysaladdays on Jun 19, 2024 8:51:24 GMT -5
Great selection again MSD! I guess if you liked the card, you would have had the exacta and triple? There's another triple that is going to pay big balloons. TW Not in these big fields. My confidence number for races today on a 1-10 basis is about a 5. Some select singles on my top horses and longshots, and maybe include "others" in exactas. I don't have "strong opinion" about any horses in most of these races today, like I'm not loving anyone too much. The way this race came in was astonishing for the place and show horses. |
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Post by spiderjohn on Jun 19, 2024 8:52:19 GMT -5
Nice pick!
KASSAYA was lucky to get anything—blocked and bounced —pretty common in those races
Next!
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Post by mysaladdays on Jun 19, 2024 8:58:26 GMT -5
Twinspires has "get your win bet back" on Races 1, 4, and 7 (I think those were the races they said in my Offers). So I did put a few win wagers on those and just lucked out on Race 1.
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Post by mysaladdays on Jun 19, 2024 9:13:34 GMT -5
"Some select singles on my top horses and longshots, and maybe include "others" in exactas."
Worked good in R2. Got the Illinois/Highbury exacta. Chalky as all get-out though. At least I haven't lost a lot of $ (yet)
Take what ya can get today. Meydaan ran out. Results were: Illinois, Highbury, Birdman.
R2 Queens Vase
Meydaan, Highbury
Others: Illinois, The Equator
Congrats on the winner, TenFurlongs.
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Post by mysaladdays on Jun 19, 2024 9:49:55 GMT -5
Congrats on Running Lion, TenFurlongs!
Came in Running Lion, Laurel, Doom.
Rogue Millenium ran 5th.
Well I had doom and laurel
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Post by tenfurlongs on Jun 19, 2024 10:11:09 GMT -5
Congrats on Running Lion, TenFurlongs! Came in Running Lion, Laurel, Doom. Rogue Millenium ran 5th. Well I had doom and laurel Thanks, but I didn't think Laurel would be that tight off the long layoff, so no $$ for me. Chalk exacta in the previous race so I still lost money on R2. Usually just need one good exacta or winner to make a profitable day, so will keep plugging along. Looking at R5 right now, what a mash-up that is. Ropey Guest, Metal Merchant, and Dutch Decoy look interesting so far. TW |
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Post by tenfurlongs on Jun 19, 2024 10:24:54 GMT -5
R5- Royal Hunt Cup
Five horse exacta box: #15- Ropey Guest (20-1), #16- Aerion Power (15-1), #23- Metal Merchant (15-1), #24- Daysofourlives (15-1), #28- Dutch Decoy (20-1).
R6- Kensington Palace
Four horse exacta box: #9- Back See Daa (20-1), #13- Rowayeh (12-1), #16- Doha (8-1), #18- Hopeful (10-1).
TW
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eye123
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Post by eye123 on Jun 19, 2024 10:30:36 GMT -5
(Source bet 365) Queen's Vase - Illinois The Queen's Vase, by contrast, is a race O'Brien has won seven times since 2007, with the likes of Mahler, Mikhail Glinka, Leading Light, Aloft, Sword Fighter, Kew Gardens and Santiago all scoring. Moore has been on the two more recent of those, in 2018 and 2020, and has elected to partner Illinois over stablemates Grosvenor Square (Dylan McMonagle), Highbury (Wayne Lordan) and The Equator (Declan McDonogh). Moore was on Grosvenor Square when he disappointed at Chester last month and prefers fellow Galileo colt Illinois now. They are joint top-rated coming into this contest. Illinois went close in a French Group 1 on second start in October and has twice shaped with purpose this season in good races, including when second to Ambiente Friendly in Lingfield's Derby Trial in early May. The winner was a cracking second to City Of Troy in the Epsom Classic since, while third home Meydaan won a Listed race at Goodwood on his next start. Illinois should have strong claims for his top team. Prince Of Wales's Stakes - Auguste Rodin The latest clash between Auguste Rodin and White Birch was expected to come here this week, but last month's impressive Tattersalls Gold Cup winner has ducked out. That leaves last year's Epsom and Curragh Derby scorer seemingly with the path clear for Royal Ascot success. The Deep Impact colt will have to banish memories of a no-show here last July in the King George VI And Queen Elizabeth Qipco Stakes but, having won the Irish Champion Stakes and the Breeders' Cup Turf afterwards, he bounced back from that in style. White Birch had his number in the Curragh Group 1 last time, but Auguste Rodin was some eight-lengths clear of third in turn and has major claims of giving his trainer a fifth win in this race. Ka Ching, Ka Ching  |
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Post by mysaladdays on Jun 19, 2024 10:35:04 GMT -5
Race 4: Auguste Rodin, Zarkarem, Horizon Dore
I didn't end up playing as posted, though I did have Auguste in the win spot. But my favorite 'ARC winner of all time was Zarkava, I have her photo on my desktop "jumping a shadow".....so I went with my heart on Zarkarem, esp. at 37-1. Auguste Rodin had so many G1 wins against this field there didn't seem much point in trying to beat him.
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docd
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"Faster horses, younger women, older whiskey, and more money." -Tom T Hall
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Post by docd on Jun 19, 2024 11:01:17 GMT -5
5:05
Daysofourlives each way for my favorite story 
GL
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Post by mysaladdays on Jun 19, 2024 11:11:51 GMT -5
The announcer gave out 3 horses in a field of 29, and they came in exactly like that. What are the chances. Like getting struck by lightning. I passed the race. Too crazy
1ST (20) WILD TIGER 11/2 JF
2nd (1) Sonny Liston 17/2
3rd (8) Perotto 25/1
4th (24) Daysofourlives 20/1
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Post by tenfurlongs on Jun 19, 2024 11:43:52 GMT -5
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5wide
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Post by 5wide on Jun 19, 2024 11:49:19 GMT -5
One of the things I love about this forum is the wealth of knowledge you guys have .
Taking a chance in the last with Wesley Ward on the firm ground .
#7 Honorary American w/p
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Post by mysaladdays on Jun 19, 2024 11:53:42 GMT -5
Wednesday June 19th: Really disliked this card but giving a try anyway R6: Kensington Palace Stakes
Doha, HopefulOthers: Fakama, Summer of Love Longshot: Cell Sa Beela (20-1), Elim (20-1) Got that one!  (exacta) $1.00 Exacta 16/18 $115.60 Came in: 1 Doha 10/1 2 Hopeful 13/2 3 Victoria Falls 20/1 4 Rowayeh 10/1 |
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