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Post by tenfurlongs on Jun 17, 2024 12:37:24 GMT -5
GOING: GOOD TO FIRM, Good in places (GoingStick: Stands' side 8.0, Centre 8.0, Far side 7.9, Round 8.5) ( Watering) (Rail Movements: 4.25 +7yds and 5.05, 5.40 & 6.15 +14yds) ( Mostly cloudy) STALLS Straight Course- Centre; Round Course- Inside RAS R1 (9:30am ET)- 1m (Str) Queen Anne Stakes (Group 1) (British Champions Series) (Class 1) (4yo+)
Winner: £425,325 Runners: 14
www.racingpost.com/racecards/2/ascot/2024-06-18/865756RAS R2 (10:05am ET)- 6f Coventry Stakes (Group 2) (Class 1) (2yo)Winner: £99,243 Runners: 23 www.racingpost.com/racecards/2/ascot/2024-06-18/869179RAS R3 (10:45am ET)- 5f King Charles III Stakes (Group 1) (British Champions Series) (Class 1) (3yo+)Winner: £390,094 Runners: 17 www.racingpost.com/racecards/2/ascot/2024-06-18/865758RAS R4 (11:25am ET)- 1m (7f213y) (Rnd) St James's Palace Stakes (Group 1) (Colts) (British Champions Series) (Class 1) (3yo)Winner: £390,094 Runners: 8 www.racingpost.com/racecards/2/ascot/2024-06-18/865757RAS R5 (12:05pm ET)- 2m4f (2m3f210y) Ascot Stakes (Heritage Handicap) (Class 2) (4yo+ 0-100)Winner: £56,694 Runners: 20 www.racingpost.com/racecards/2/ascot/2024-06-18/869181RAS R6 (12:40pm ET)- 1m2f (1m1f212y) Wolferton Stakes (Listed Race) (Class 1) (4yo+)Winner: £68,052 Runners: 16 www.racingpost.com/racecards/2/ascot/2024-06-18/869180RAS R7 (1:15pm ET)- 1m6f (1m6f34y) Copper Horse Handicap (Class 2) (4yo+ 0-105)
Winner: £56,694 Runners: 16
www.racingpost.com/racecards/2/ascot/2024-06-18/869182TW |
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Post by mysaladdays on Jun 17, 2024 12:40:57 GMT -5
Glad to hear good to firm. Makes a difference in picking.
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Post by spiderjohn on Jun 17, 2024 13:53:44 GMT -5
Ascot seems to be one of the firmer courses over there--makes a difference
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docd
UpInClass Member
"Faster horses, younger women, older whiskey, and more money." -Tom T Hall
Posts: 1,958
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Post by docd on Jun 17, 2024 16:08:31 GMT -5
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Post by spiderjohn on Jun 17, 2024 17:09:03 GMT -5
Been a year or so since I have done this, but like Andy Beyer, I have been completely wrong often enough that it is not important
I hear that it will be firm ground, and they are already watering the course---so maybe downgrade the soft turfers(Frenchies etc)
not overly classy opening card, however it may be very competitive--$1 minimum tris restrict my wagering + no pik3s(thank goodness!). When over there, I love playing 10pence 8runner tri boxes.
Queen Anne
Still like #8 FACTEUR CHEVAL(Team Valor!). Varian's #5 CHARYN is off to a good year, and figures(not telling you anything that you can't see). #11 MALJOOM is my shooter in here from the Haggas/Marquand team to be focused for this
shotgun xboxing(my method of the day) 1-5-6-8-11
x partwheel 8/1-2-5-6-11-13
Coventry
Very shaky play here--no telling who will emerge as the next buzz. I like #9 COWARDOFTHECOUNTY(recently purchased by Stonestreet), —surprised by the choice of riders. Other top past form is
#5 CAMILLE PISSARRO(the other Obrien + Moore) lost to a steam runner that we will see later in the week, along with the runner-up to the #9. #3 is a $1 mil May purchase Justify out of a Galileo mare--we know what they can do, and ml 50-1(no way)
shotgun xbox 2-5-6-9-13-19
x partwheel 5-9/2-3-5-6-9-13-19-22
King Charles III
no clue
shotgun xbox 7-8-9-12-16-17
St James Palace
Pretty much a 2 horse race it seems..... going with #7 ROSILLION to turn the tables on the undefeated Appleby/Buick #6 NOTABLE SPEECH, and tossing in both O'Briens back on firm going. Really liked the way #7 won last out, and was not embarrassed losing to the favorite #6 two back.
#7 win
x partwheel 7/4-6-8
tri box 4-6-7-8 just in case Obriens show up big
Wolferton
#9 ISRAR could be good enough if he is at his best for Gosden/Crowley
#9 each way
so nothing earth shattering from me unless an exacta surprise
good luck!
who do YOU like?
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Post by mysaladdays on Jun 17, 2024 18:08:38 GMT -5
Here are my thoughts for Tuesday. 1st horse(s) listed I like the most, who I would single or play as keys in exotics. Then I included Others and Longshots who may hit the frame. Obviously, going for a price here.
(There are some I feel might get me like Big Rock but I just don't trust horses putting up big numbers when their previous progressions weren't similar, so could not take at low odds of 5-1, for instance.) I don't mind low odds if I think horse can win though. I left out some of the more chalky ones, so willing to take my chances on the first day and see how it all plays out.
Queen Anne Stakes R1
Facteur Cheval
Others: Poker Face, Docklands
Longshot Bombers: Flight Plan (50-1) Hi Royal (50-1)
Coventry Stakes R2
Andesite, Catalyse
Others: Camille Passaro, Midnight Strike
Longshot bomber: Rashabar (60-1)
King Charles III R3
Believing, Equality (Believing had epiglottal surgery, will run well here)
Others: Big Evs, Kerdos, Regional
St. Jame's Palace R4
Notable Speech, Almaqam
Others: Rosallion, Darlinghurst
Ascot Stakes R5
Pledge of Allegience, Pied Piper
Others: Kyle of Lochalsh, Tritonic
Longhot bomber: Get Shirty (30-1)
Wolferton Stakes R6
Astro King, Botanical
Others: Torito, Notre Belle Bete scratch
Copper Horse R7
Belloccio, A Piece of Heaven
Others: My Mate Mozzie, Bague d'Or scratch
Longshot Bomber: Kihavah (20-1)
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Post by tenfurlongs on Jun 17, 2024 19:29:48 GMT -5
Just got back from an away weekend at Turning Stone Resort Casino, trying to play catch up now that PPs are available. Will have to do the rest of the races tomorrow morning. RAS R1 (9:30am ET)- 1m (Str) Queen Anne Stakes (Group 1) (British Champions Series) (Class 1) (4yo+) This is always a barn-burner of a race, and no exception this year. One mile up the straight should be interesting, and I'm thinking that there will be two groups: one headed by #1- Audience (10-1) which drew high in PP14, and one led by #2- Big Rock (5-1) which drew down low in PP3. Audience is a front-runner, very consistent, and seemed to improve markedly on his 5yo debut, winning off easily on good ground at Newbury in the Lockinge S. (GI). I think the Gosdens and connections were going to keep Inspiral up in trip (10F) anyways, but Audience made their decision much easier. #5- Charyn (5-2) would probably like a bit more 'soft' in the ground, but finished right behind Audience last time, has progressed beautifully as a 4yo and should have every chance from PP9. Might drift up just a bit too, odds-wise. EX- 1,5/1,2,5,8,11 {Hooper probably wants his ' Team Valor' hat back, but I just think Facteur Cheval wants ground with a bit more cut in it. I'll be happy to be wrong, though. I loved him in Dubai and he complied.} RAS R2 (10:05am ET)- 6f Coventry Stakes (Group 2) (Class 1) (2yo) Hoping for a couple of scratches because I have too many to choose from in here. #5- Camille Pissarro (9-2) is a very expensive ($1.5M+) Wootton Bassett colt from Aidan O'Brien, won his debut going 6F on good, then ran a close second in GIII at Curragh last time. Expecting further improvement today. #11- Francisco's Piece (15-1) is one I really like, bred to be a sprinter (Mayson) and has progressed strongly through three starts. Seems to handle all ground, steps up to 6F today but should handle it on breeding. #14- Mr Chaplin (20-1) is my longshot special, jumped up to win second start by three lengths in a twenty-horse field at Newbury. Rossa Ryan may have a pretty good week at Ascot. EX- 5,11/1,5,11,13,14,19,22 WIN- 14 RAS R3 (10:45am ET)- 5f King Charles III Stakes (Group 1) (British Champions Series) (Class 1) (3yo+) #5- Regional (9-2) is in career form, winning three of his last five, with a close-up fifth in the Nunthorpe S. (GI) sandwiched in between. Callum Rodriguez clearly fits this horse well, based on results. Has GI form at 6F and should have plenty of stamina at the end of this stiff test with the uphill finish. From PP15, will likely be on or near the lead of his group among the higher drawn runners. #9- Believing (10-1) is an improving 4yo filly for George Boughey, also wants good-firm ground, has GI form at 6F too. Trip to Hong Kong earlier this season seems to have taken nothing out of her, with a powerful prep win at Haydock Park ten days ago. Will have a separate win wager on #7- Twilight Calls (10-1), 6yo was second and fourth in this race the last twice under Ryan Moore, Henry Candy can have one ready on the day, needs all the pace he can get up front and will be storming home late. EX- 5,9/1,5,7,9,12 WIN- 7 RAS R4 (11:25am ET)- 1m (7f213y) (Rnd) St James's Palace Stakes (Group 1) (Colts) (British Champions Series) (Class 1) (3yo) All the talk has been about #6- Notable Speech (3-2) and how impressive a physical specimen he has developed into this year. Unraced at two, won three in a row on the AW before surprising the 2000 Guineas field at Newmarket (16-1). Will be watching him in the walking ring. Son of Dubawi should have the necessary stamina for this stricter mile trip, but still needs some pace to close into. Not using Darlinghurst or Metropolitan based on their apparent preference for softer ground, even though you should always use the ALL-button for third in small fields (see, I remembered this time, even though I'm going to ignore it again  .) TRI- 6/2,4,7/1,2,4,7,8 RAS R5 (12:05pm ET)- 2m4f (2m3f210y) Ascot Stakes (Heritage Handicap) (Class 2) (4yo+ 0-100) Will probably play a four horse exacta box after watching how the track is playing early on. RAS R6 (12:40pm ET)- 1m2f (1m1f212y) Wolferton Stakes (Listed Race) (Class 1) (4yo+) If #9- Israr (5-1) really goes off at that m/l price he'd be the play of the week, I feel. Unless Botanical can jump up one more level from a very wide draw, it seems like Israr just needs to run to his current form to win. EX- 9/4,5,8,16 RAS R7 (1:15pm ET)- 1m6f (1m6f34y) Copper Horse Handicap (Class 2) (4yo+ 0-105) Similar to the Ascot Stakes, will probably find a four-horse box to play. Don't really want to take the time, effort, paper, and toner to print out the PPs for those big fields. TW |
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Post by mysaladdays on Jun 17, 2024 20:26:59 GMT -5
Will be interesting to apply some of my conduit mare profiles in this. Like in the St. James, Metropolitan has the lowest conduit mare stamina number of any horse in that race and the highest cmp index. (not good). Unfortunately I would not have time to do these calculations, it takes too much time.. its just fun to mess around with, for sheer enjoyment. Like Alyanaabi has the most black type winners in 5 generations ( 37) Unquestionable has most reines mares (17)and the only RF (Rasmussen Factor) in the field.
And gotta love Rosallion, has that Storm Cat which many who won this race had, like Black Minnalouche, Giants Causeway and then his son, Shamardal, won in 2005.
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Post by tenfurlongs on Jun 18, 2024 6:58:55 GMT -5
Still good-to-firm going.
Scratches:
R1- Royal Scotsman
R2- Andesite
2012 Queen Anne Stakes:
TW
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eye123
UpInClass Steward
Posts: 3,050
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Post by eye123 on Jun 18, 2024 7:50:05 GMT -5
Some price plays:
2nd) The Actor
3rd) Asfoora
7th) A Piece of Heaven
The logical's :
Charyn,three ml favorites 4th(box),Pied Piper,Botanical
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Post by spiderjohn on Jun 18, 2024 8:14:21 GMT -5
Warm and firm(Ascot can be more firm than most) is as dramatic as heavy/soft imo
Will be interesting to see who thrives
Could aid Notable Speech or Longfellow?
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propro
UpInClass Member
Posts: 986
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Post by propro on Jun 18, 2024 8:20:43 GMT -5
Tom, check your AOL.
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Post by tenfurlongs on Jun 18, 2024 8:42:20 GMT -5
Good start spider, that should pay alright. Mad that I didn't believe in Docklands enough to include him underneath, he loves Ascot (HFTC), instead of the two French soft ground runners. Onwards!
TW
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Post by spiderjohn on Jun 18, 2024 8:42:27 GMT -5
Looks as if stands side is the way to go today
1st3rd choices tried inside and were drowned after being prominent early
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eye123
UpInClass Steward
Posts: 3,050
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Post by eye123 on Jun 18, 2024 8:47:45 GMT -5
06/18 9:02 AM Royal Ascot 1 $1.00 EXA 5, 8 / 6, 7, 8 $5.00 $37.00
XPRESSBET
20% ROYAL ASCOT WINNINGS BOOST
TUE, JUNE 18 - SAT, JUNE 22 // GET A 20% BOOST ON YOUR EXACTA WINNINGS
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Post by tenfurlongs on Jun 18, 2024 8:52:14 GMT -5
06/18 9:02 AM Royal Ascot 1 $1.00 EXA 5, 8 / 6, 7, 8 $5.00 $37.00 XPRESSBET 20% ROYAL ASCOT WINNINGS BOOST TUE, JUNE 18 - SAT, JUNE 22 // GET A 20% BOOST ON YOUR EXACTA WINNINGS Nice hit Carl. Also, thanks for the heads up on the Xpressbet bonus. TW |
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Post by tenfurlongs on Jun 18, 2024 9:09:43 GMT -5
The triple in that race (Coventry) is going to pay five digits! 99-1, 25-1, 64-1. Wow.
TW
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propro
UpInClass Member
Posts: 986
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Post by propro on Jun 18, 2024 9:13:49 GMT -5
18 year old Billy Loughnane on the winner in the Coventry. Looks way younger than that and was really excited in his post race interview on ITV.
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Post by tenfurlongs on Jun 18, 2024 9:35:12 GMT -5
Race 2- Coventry Stakes results:
Rashabar
Billy Loughnane
Brian Meehan
$259.80 Win
$36.60 Place
Electrolyte
Hollie Doyle
Archie Watson
$15.80 Place
Columnist
Oisin Orr
Richard Fahey
$23.80 Place
Cool Hoof Luke
Silvestre de Sousa
Andrew Balding
$16.60 Place
$1 EXACTA
16/10
$4,210.60
$1 QUINELLA
10/16
$1,986.20
$1 TRIFECTA
16/10/7
$122,667.10
TW
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Post by mysaladdays on Jun 18, 2024 9:38:05 GMT -5
Coventry Stakes R2
Andesite, Catalyse
Others: Camille Passaro, Midnight Strike Longshot bomber: Rashabar (60-1) Wow. Rashbar won and I am pretty sure that is the most I've ever won on a $2 bet on a single horse in many many years. 16 $259.80 $36.60
Only reason I listed it yesterday and played was I saw his name and thought "billy can ride anything!" |
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Post by tenfurlongs on Jun 18, 2024 9:41:57 GMT -5
Great pick MSD! That's huge. Spider just got nosed for the $4K+ exacta, unfortunately. His would have paid even more  .
edit: Disregard that part about spider's pick, I looked at the wrong race. TW |
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5wide
UpInClass Member
Posts: 1,651
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Post by 5wide on Jun 18, 2024 9:49:07 GMT -5
Great hit Salad !
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5wide
UpInClass Member
Posts: 1,651
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Post by 5wide on Jun 18, 2024 9:49:42 GMT -5
So So happy for Asfoora and her connections.
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Post by mysaladdays on Jun 18, 2024 9:50:37 GMT -5
Queen Anne Stakes R1
Facteur Cheval
Others: Poker Face, Docklands Longshot Bombers: Flight Plan (50-1) Hi Royal (50-1)
Funny, in one of my edits last night I removed Charyn. I made some coin on Docklands in a place single though. 6 . $7.40 |
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Post by tenfurlongs on Jun 18, 2024 10:21:16 GMT -5
Race 4- St. James's Palace
Thinking that #2- Alyanaabi should not be 20-1 for Owen Burrows. Unquestionable probably gets sent to aid his stablemate, but not much other pace signed up, so Alyanaabi can sit right behind, maybe gets first jump on the cavalry. Playing a saver.
EX- 2/ALL
TW
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1hooper
UpInClass Steward
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Post by 1hooper on Jun 18, 2024 10:23:09 GMT -5
Also Metropolitan should not be 15-1.
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Post by mysaladdays on Jun 18, 2024 10:30:21 GMT -5
And gotta love Rosallion, has that Storm Cat which many who won this race had, like Black Minnalouche, Giants Causeway and then his son, Shamardal, won in 2005. history |
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eye123
UpInClass Steward
Posts: 3,050
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Post by eye123 on Jun 18, 2024 10:34:47 GMT -5
Some price plays: 2nd) The Actor 3rd) Asfoora 7th) A Piece of Heaven The logical's : Charyn,three ml favorites 4th(box),Pied Piper,Botanical Some price plays: 2nd) The Actor (LOSS) 3rd) Asfoora (WIN) 7th) A Piece of Heaven The logical's : Charyn,(WIN)three ml favorites 4th(box)(WIN),Pied Piper,Botanical |
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Post by mysaladdays on Jun 18, 2024 11:01:09 GMT -5
Ascot Stakes R5
Pledge of Allegience, Pied Piper
Others: Kyle of Lochalsh, Tritonic Longhot bomber: Get Shirty (30-1) Added Divine Comedy to others |
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Post by mysaladdays on Jun 18, 2024 11:16:04 GMT -5
Ascot Stakes R5
Pledge of Allegience, Pied Piper
Others: Kyle of Lochalsh, Tritonic Longhot bomber: Get Shirty (30-1) Added Divine Comedy to others KILLED IT!  Results: 1ST (18) PLEDGEOFALLEGIANCE 20/1 2nd (5) Divine Comedy 8/1 3rd (8) Kyle Of Lochalsh 12/1 4th (13) Get Shirty 33/1 18 $44.00 $14.20 . 5 . $8.20 . 8 . $10.00 . Winner $44.00 $1.00 Exacta 18/5 $206.20 $1.00 Quinella 5/18 $113.20 $1.00 Trifecta 18/5/8 $2,159.40 |
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