Mystik Dan

[5wide]

ML 20/1 , I can get 25/1 antepost. What odds do you think he goes off at  if it rains ?

[Badactor]

Feels to me like it could be 6-1 odds in the rain.
The generous 20-1 Morning Line will be bet down. 
I'll say he wins the race @ 8-1. That's my Bad-Opinion.

GOOD LUCK and thanks to all for posting @ UpInClass. Dell.

[mysaladdays]

6-1 if it rains sounds about right. If it doesn't rain, I'd say 10-1 and upwards at least.

[cherokeescot]

No way he goes off at odds less than 10-1 even if we get rain of biblical proportions 😜

[eye123]

[ozzy]

I’ll never again so no way but I’m inclined to agree with Bev. He may be shorter than 20-1, but he’ll be higher than 10-1 for sure

[1hooper]

We'll get an early odds indicator starting Tuesday.


Those with a debilitating fear of getting shut out of wagering on the Kentucky Derby and Kentucky Oaks can rest easy because Churchill Downs is opening the pari-mutuel wagering pools for those races on Tuesday.
Churchill has in the recent past opened wagering for its two marquee races as well as the special two-day Oaks-Derby Double wager on Thursday of Kentucky Derby week, but it has taken steps to open wagering for those pools Tuesday this year.

[5wide]

Thanks for the thoughts, I think 10/1 if wet, 25/1 if dry. Imo he does move up in the slop.

[Deleted]

i like his name
better now

[Deleted]

Apr 29, 2024 19:09:40 GMT -5 1hooper said:

We'll get an early odds indicator starting Tuesday.


Those with a debilitating fear of getting shut out of wagering on the Kentucky Derby and Kentucky Oaks can rest easy because Churchill Downs is opening the pari-mutuel wagering pools for those races on Tuesday.
Churchill has in the recent past opened wagering for its two marquee races as well as the special two-day Oaks-Derby Double wager on Thursday of Kentucky Derby week, but it has taken steps to open wagering for those pools Tuesday this year.

imho any money bet before friday is STUPID MONEY.
unless you are going to be sumwhere
to get a refund right away
your money is held hostage in the event of a scratch
i'd rather be shut out then be forced to bet early
(says the person with
15 future wagers)

[lure]

Does anyone know if I can use my TVG account (I live in CA) at the Derby on Saturday? I know it wouldn't let me bet last summer on vacation in Colorado...

[Deleted]

god knows
when you log in you swear you're in
the state you're registered in
so i'll go with
NO!

[lure]

Dan could turn into the Wise guy pick, no? No not Wise Dan!

[cherokeescot]

Apr 29, 2024 21:42:19 GMT -5 lure said:

Does anyone know if I can use my TVG account (I live in CA) at the Derby on Saturday? I know it wouldn't let me bet last summer on vacation in Colorado...

Yes. (I couldn’t bet when I was in Georgia the other week) 

TVG is available in the following states currently : Arizona, Arkansas, California, Colorado, Connecticut, Delaware, Florida, Idaho, Illinois, Indiana, Iowa, Kentucky, Louisiana, Maryland, Massachusetts, Michigan, Minnesota, Montana, New Hampshire, New Jersey (under 4NJBets), New Mexico, New York, North Dakota, Ohio, Oregon, Pennsylvania, Rhode Island, South Dakota, Virginia, Washington, West Virginia, and Wyoming.

[Deleted]

i'll stand corrected but
would be wary
especially if you should have been
allowed in colorado
last year

[lure]

I will have cash with me in the infield, but it would be nice to know I could use my phone if the lines are ridiculous.

[mysaladdays]

Maybe someone can explain the LOGIC behind "if a horse wins on slop that must mean you should wager them in next race if racecourse is sloppy"

The Southwwest was sloppy. Mystik Dan won.

There was a strong closer bias the day of the Arkansas Derby, and despite his very high late pace figures in the Southwest, he didn't win that race. Track was fast/clear.  That is still a huge conclusion to leap to IMHO, that he is only aided by sloppy tracks. 

The Smarty Jones was fast/clear. Mystik Dan just wasn't ready to take pressure yet at that point in his development.

Every other race he ran including his maiden which he won at CD, track was fast/clear.


So the logic is that because a horse won on a sloppy track ONCE that means wager him on next sloppy track?  Even if the sloppy track doesn't play the same as the previous sloppy track they ran on successfully before?

I am certainly not a research scientist doing clinical trials, but small sample sizes are notoriously fallacious, inaccurate, and imprecise...... which is why most in medical, insurance, etc. industries would never use them.

If you look at the color of the racecourses, Oaklawn has a distinct "red" hue, due to lots of clay.  It seems somewhat "peanut butterish" on sloppy days.   Churchill's track doesn't have that hue.    What may be true, therefore, is that Mystik Dan succeeded on a somewhat tiring track that day, where hooves sink in and make a sucking sound when coming out.  But IMHO hee may have done the same on a clear day on another tiring track as well.  

In 2023, Confidence Game , Angel of Empire , Raise Cain , Tapit Trice , and Rocket Can and Two Phils had each won at least one start over a sloppy or muddy track.  So had Forte but he didn' run in the Derby.  The KY Derby wasn't on slop in 2023. 

The Travers DID come up muddy and Forte and Tapit Trice ran 3rd and 4th.   Maybe it is true that Mage didn't  like slop but he lost races after the KY Derby on clear dry tracks so I can't draw any conclusions about him. 

[dblakers]

According to Lukas Churchill new track is more clay, more tiring than before.  I have seen it to many times where a horse looks great on one muddy track and then bombs next time on it. Fierceness is a prime example. Broke his maiden by 11 in the mud. Didn't run at all in the slop at AQ. Now there are some horses who thrive in the mud. Exaggerator was one of them. Mind that Bird was another, just watch how he glided through the mud in that derby. Curlin also loved it. 

[shoes]

Re Mine that Bird, that's when Calvin Borel was winning all those Derbys. He didn't just ride the rail in the conventional sense- he would run almost dangerously tight to the rail and the surface was harder there. Haven't seen another jockey willing to get that close to it.

[1hooper]

This was in Courier-Journal early April.

2024 "The track mixture consists of 75% sand, 23% clay, and 2% silt. It makes for a safer more cushioned surface that protects the horses when they run."

[5wide]

Apr 30, 2024 4:23:41 GMT -5 mysaladdays said:

Maybe someone can explain the LOGIC behind "if a horse wins on slop that must mean you should wager them in next race if racecourse is sloppy"

The Southwwest was sloppy. Mystik Dan won.

There was a strong closer bias the day of the Arkansas Derby, and despite his very high late pace figures in the Southwest, he didn't win that race. Track was fast/clear.  That is still a huge conclusion to leap to IMHO, that he is only aided by sloppy tracks. 

The Smarty Jones was fast/clear. Mystik Dan just wasn't ready to take pressure yet at that point in his development.

Every other race he ran including his maiden which he won at CD, track was fast/clear.


So the logic is that because a horse won on a sloppy track ONCE that means wager him on next sloppy track?  Even if the sloppy track doesn't play the same as the previous sloppy track they ran on successfully before?

I am certainly not a research scientist doing clinical trials, but small sample sizes are notoriously fallacious, inaccurate, and imprecise...... which is why most in medical, insurance, etc. industries would never use them.

If you look at the color of the racecourses, Oaklawn has a distinct "red" hue, due to lots of clay.  It seems somewhat "peanut butterish" on sloppy days.   Churchill's track doesn't have that hue.    What may be true, therefore, is that Mystik Dan succeeded on a somewhat tiring track that day, where hooves sink in and make a sucking sound when coming out.  But IMHO hee may have done the same on a clear day on another tiring track as well.  

In 2023, Confidence Game , Angel of Empire , Raise Cain , Tapit Trice , and Rocket Can and Two Phils had each won at least one start over a sloppy or muddy track.  So had Forte but he didn' run in the Derby.  The KY Derby wasn't on slop in 2023. 

The Travers DID come up muddy and Forte and Tapit Trice ran 3rd and 4th.   Maybe it is true that Mage didn't  like slop but he lost races after the KY Derby on clear dry tracks so I can't draw any conclusions about him. 

Here's my flawed logic,

If their figure significantly increases in the slop , then back to the normal range on the dry, then then IMO the slop moved them up significantly and you can expect to see better performances from them in the slop.

[cherokeescot]

Current odds at 5pm Tuesday

Sierra Leone 3/1
Fierceness 3/1
Forever Young 10/1
Catching Freedom 11/1
Honor Marie 11/1
Just A Touch 13/1
Resilience 20/1
Endlessly22/1
Dornoch 22/1
Just Steel 25/1
Domestic Product 28/1
Stronghold 30/1
Catalytic 31/1
Track Phantom 32/1
Mystik Dan 33/1

[docd]

Apr 30, 2024 8:23:25 GMT -5 1hooper said:

This was in Courier-Journal early April.

2024 "The track mixture consists of 75% sand, 23% clay, and 2% silt. It makes for a safer more cushioned surface that protects the horses when they run."

[cherokeescot]

😂

[mysaladdays]

Apr 30, 2024 8:27:07 GMT -5 5wide said:

Apr 30, 2024 4:23:41 GMT -5 mysaladdays said:

Here's my flawed logic,

If their figure significantly increases in the slop , then back to the normal range on the dry, then then IMO the slop moved them up significantly and you can expect to see better performances from them in the slop.

I did not actually target my response to you in particular, but I had to use a post to address, so I hope you didn't think that.  I am just trying to argue that there were any number of reasons why MD won that race, and how I personally analyze these things. Right or wrong.   I like to talk it over with others, who like you, have very good arguments.   For me it is like you and I sitting at the kitchen table talking things over. 

My argument, basically, is that I can't annoint a horse as an off track type based on one performance, esp since all tracks play differently AND we have no data on what an off track really is at different racecourses.  

Since OP is my local I did use him to win the Southwest, my reasoning was:
1) he had run well on 3 tracks
2) McPeek has done very well at, and is skilled at,  Oaklawn
3) Mystik Dan was one of only 3 horses who had won a Graded stakes G3 (the other 2 were Timberlake and Time for Truth)
4) I could see he would have pace to run into
5) Certain running styles do well there (both he and Timberlake had the correct running style) with some moisture in the track, and he also effectively had Best Last Race Speed 


There were any number of *reasons* he won that race, none having to do with the track condition since nobody knew what horses would like those conditions..    

And nobody really knows what sloppy means because every track is different.  (i.e. The technology is already available to greatly improve how dirt tracks are rated for moisture. There is a tool that accurately measures moisure content in soil/dirt expressed as a percentage and all this can be put into a database IF there was a will to do so.)

Instead we get wonky descriptors that do not even rate drying out tracks, tracks as they go towards mud, and/or that "become" slop from being just muddy.   

So to even have a true conversation about "offtracks" it seems like it would require truer accurate data.  Slop at OP is very different than slop at other tracks.  On that I am pretty sure....  but I cannot prove that w/out  data to back it up because I don't have data that provides measurements.  

[UpInClass]

[5wide]

Apr 30, 2024 18:15:39 GMT -5 mysaladdays said:

Apr 30, 2024 8:27:07 GMT -5 5wide said:

Here's my flawed logic,

If their figure significantly increases in the slop , then back to the normal range on the dry, then then IMO the slop moved them up significantly and you can expect to see better performances from them in the slop.

I did not actually target my response to you in particular, but I had to use a post to address, so I hope you didn't think that.  I am just trying to argue that there were any number of reasons why MD won that race, and how I personally analyze these things. Right or wrong.   I like to talk it over with others, who like you, have very good arguments.   For me it is like you and I sitting at the kitchen table talking things over. 

My argument, basically, is that I can't annoint a horse as an off track type based on one performance, esp since all tracks play differently AND we have no data on what an off track really is at different racecourses.  

Since OP is my local I did use him to win the Southwest, my reasoning was:
1) he had run well on 3 tracks
2) McPeek has done very well at, and is skilled at,  Oaklawn
3) Mystik Dan was one of only 3 horses who had won a Graded stakes G3 (the other 2 were Timberlake and Time for Truth)
4) I could see he would have pace to run into
5) Certain running styles do well there (both he and Timberlake had the correct running style) with some moisture in the track, and he also effectively had Best Last Race Speed 


There were any number of *reasons* he won that race, none having to do with the track condition since nobody knew what horses would like those conditions..    

And nobody really knows what sloppy means because every track is different.  (i.e. The technology is already available to greatly improve how dirt tracks are rated for moisture. There is a tool that accurately measures moisure content in soil/dirt expressed as a percentage and all this can be put into a database IF there was a will to do so.)

Instead we get wonky descriptors that do not even rate drying out tracks, tracks as they go towards mud, and/or that "become" slop from being just muddy.   

So to even have a true conversation about "offtracks" it seems like it would require truer accurate data.  Slop at OP is very different than slop at other tracks.  On that I am pretty sure....  but I cannot prove that w/out  data to back it up because I don't have data that provides measurements.  

No, didn't think that. I agree with all you stated.  And yes my thoughts are gross over simplifications and I have been caught out more than once, but with limited data available, this is what I use.

[Badactor]

What does thoro-graph say about my horse?

Also, has the "Whisperer" whispered anything about MD?

[thebobtailnag]

(All in fun)

The horse was singing something like this

[mysaladdays]

Apr 30, 2024 18:45:26 GMT -5 UpInClass said:

Saving this !   I'm going to apply names of my best cappin' pals and send out as a card next year. !