PK6 Suggestions

[Badactor]

BC PK6 RACES

bc mile     Exaulted

bc distaff  Clairiere, Wet Paint

bc turf      Balladeer

bc classic  Proxy

bc turf sprint   ? ? ? 

bc sprint   American Theorem, The Chosen Vron


These are some runners I'd like to see on the ticket.
Ya don't gotta, but i think ya oughta. ~ Badactor 

[cherokeescot]

I like your suggestions for the Turf Sprint best 😉

[docd]

ALL/ALL/ALL ?
I'm not good at maths but that should eat some bankroll

[eye123]

Oct 26, 2023 0:17:54 GMT -5 Badactor said:

BC PK6 RACES

bc mile     Exaulted

bc distaff  Clairiere, Wet Paint

bc turf      Balladeer

bc classic  Proxy

bc turf sprint   ? ? ? 

bc sprint   American Theorem, The Chosen Vron


These are some runners I'd like to see on the ticket.
Ya don't gotta, but i think ya oughta. ~ Badactor 

bc mile...  Practical Move

bc distaff... Idiomatic, Clairiere

bc turf ....... Auguste Rodin,Up To The Mark, Mostahdaf

bc classic..Archangelo

bc turf sprint... load the shotgun..spread

bc sprint..Speed Boat Beach, Elite Power
 

[cherokeescot]

Eye,

Practical Move is in the Dirt Mile which unfortunately isn’t part of the Pick 6.

I do like all your other picks though 

[mysaladdays]

BC Turf - I also like Balladeer. Looks like a sleeper.

[merasmag]

i'll stick with archangelo as a MUST USE
lol

[cherokeescot]

Not understanding the love for Balladeer. Has been running in Optional Claimers. Has never ran this distance. Never ran in a Grade 1 before. Would rather have War Like Goddess (7-1-1) at a mile and a half at 14-1 than Balladeer at 50-1. 🤷‍♂️

[tenfurlongs]

I don't think Balladeer is going to pass other horses to win. His best work is on the front end. SA can certainly favor speed, Balladeer has a fine course resume, and he improved this summer. However, the 'best' horses he ever defeated are Masteroffoxhounds, another front-running sort which doesn't strike fear into anyone's heart, and Gold Phoenix, a deep-closer whose style suits Del Mar better. If he was a 'lone-speed', you might make a case for him. With Get Smokin signed up, and Mostahdaf which has a high cruising speed right there also, I can't see him lasting to the wire, especially at 12 furlongs which he has never tried. Not using on any of my tickets, FWIW.

{edit: With the scratch of Get Smokin, Balladeer has some more breathing room, and if they leave him alone he could go a long way. Possibilities underneath for me now.}




TW

[1hooper]

He is from the female family of Drosselmeyer and Stage Luck though.

[mysaladdays]

Oct 29, 2023 8:27:42 GMT -5 cherokeescot said:

Not understanding the love for Balladeer.

 Really depends on our final bankroll though, doesn't it?
With a smaller bankroll it would be a bad idea to play a lot of chalk, IMHO, and not even get your wager back. 


BC Turf - will come back to this one later,  but still like Balladeer though obviously a longshot. I'm going to keep looking around but I love all his Northern Dancer/Nearctic spread so liberally throughout his pedigree.  War Like Goddess is going to be tough, and so is King of Steel who has been running ITM wth the likes of Westover, Hukum, and Auguste Rodin so not a pretender here if he goes in this race. 

My uber bomb killer longshot is Shahryar.   His win in the Sheema Classic last year was so good.  I was wondering why he hasn't run well since then, well it turns out he had epiglottic entrapment and surgery for that in August.  That's what makes him a good bomber longshot IMHO. 

edit: with scratch of Arcangelo I have reconsidered how I will play this race.  Classic - Will choose between Ushba Tesoro, Arcangel or Arabian Knight, White Abarrio ---- Zandon I can't decide about, too inconsistent. closer to when we have to give our picks, I will come back and edit this. 
Ushba Tesoro doesn't start running til he gets to the stretch so he makes everyone very edge-of-seat nervous.  The amount of ground he made up in the Dubai World Cup was uber impressive. (Toss from the Win spot:  Proxy, Charge It, Derma Sotogake, Senor Buscador.....I am looking for a G1 winning horse as that is what wins the classic and G1 has to be during 2023.) 

BC Turf Sprint: Jasper Krone  (who dropped out of the BC Sprint);  Bradsell  (he also scratched)

BC Sprint - Elite Power

[merasmag]

she had me at epi surgery
new horselet
bombs away

[jacckk8]

WHITE ABARRIO .. go no further. My pick for the big one.,.,better now than ever IMO!!

I give him my 5 star Kaching!

ARCADIA, Calif. – Any worries handicappers may have had regarding White Abarrio after he had a scheduled work postponed here earlier this week due to foot issues were likely laid to rest in the 59.63 seconds it took the Grade 1 Whitney winner to work five furlongs shortly before dawn on a crisp Friday morning at Santa Anita.


Good luck to the group! Let’s do it!

[dblakers]

Not in the pick 6, wasn't in it last year. I will throw my 2cents in. Last year I personally thought whoever made the decisions on the pick 6 tickets need a terrible job. From memory yall had over 5k to play the pick 6, which was a pick 5 with Flightline, could have made a case it was a pick 4 with Modern games, could have made a case it was a pick 3 with Rebels Romance, Could have made a case it was a pick 2 with Malathatt. My point is the pick 6 was very chalky and it looked that way on paper. I even posted my picks and had the pick 6, said that the Female Turf race was the toughest one and Obrian won. With 5k yall should have easily had that pick 6 20 times or more. I get it everybody always want to win the big one, but sometimes you just take what is being given. 

With that said, this year does seem to be tougher than last. The "Chalk" doesn't appear to be as dominate. What makes it so hard is the Japan runners. The success they have shown the last few years is hard to not take their horses seriously. The of course you have the Euro's. The Americans could be in some trouble this year. Since it seems that all the fast horses keep getting hurt or dying, maybe Elite Power can repeat. I think Cody's wish has a chance to repeat also.  The classic I have been very impressed by the push button Archangelo has been. However over the years I have seen many New York horses come west coast to the Breeders cup and not perform for whatever reason. I respect the Japan runners here. and even though I do not like his horse, Baffert has a knack for winning the classic. 

[tenfurlongs]

You're certainly entitled to your opinion, but remember that last year's (and again this year) ticket was a group effort by UIC members who wanted a shot at a winning experience, and the person that constructed the ticket wanted to have coverage in depth wherever possible, Flightline being the single. Saying it was a terrible job is kind of ridiculous, seeing as he created a winning ticket. We won as a group, had input as a group. If you are betting as an individual, you can take a stand as you like in every race. I'm glad you hit the bet too. But other than Modern Games (7-5) I didn't feel there were any other singles, and he actually had a tough trip and had to swing wide, only won by 3/4 length. Malathaat was one of three noses on the wire, so that's silly. Rebel's Romance wasn't even the favored Godolphin runner, Nation's Pride was and William Buick chose to ride him, not Rebel's Romance.

If you just bet the top betting choices on down in each race last year, you had to go 3rd choice, co-2nd choice, Favorite, 2nd choice, 3rd choice, and Flightline. 3x3x1x2x3x1 = 54 combinations. Not quite a cakewalk, but as BC goes, pretty hittable even as an individual with a small bankroll. The really big money comes when one or more 10-1+ shots win, so in a group effort, you spread wider and hope for some chaos.  

Looking forward to your selections after the draw later today.




TW

[mysaladdays]

Oct 30, 2023 7:45:06 GMT -5 dblakers said:

Not in the pick 6, wasn't in it last year. I will throw my 2cents in. Last year I personally thought whoever made the decisions on the pick 6 tickets need a terrible job. From memory yall had over 5k to play the pick 6, which was a pick 5 with Flightline, could have made a case it was a pick 4 with Modern games, could have made a case it was a pick 3 with Rebels Romance, Could have made a case it was a pick 2 with Malathatt. My point is the pick 6 was very chalky and it looked that way on paper. I even posted my picks and had the pick 6, said that the Female Turf race was the toughest one and Obrian won. With 5k yall should have easily had that pick 6 20 times or more. I get it everybody always want to win the big one, but sometimes you just take what is being given. 

With that said, this year does seem to be tougher than last. The "Chalk" doesn't appear to be as dominate. What makes it so hard is the Japan runners. The success they have shown the last few years is hard to not take their horses seriously. The of course you have the Euro's. The Americans could be in some trouble this year. Since it seems that all the fast horses keep getting hurt or dying, maybe Elite Power can repeat. I think Cody's wish has a chance to repeat also.  The classic I have been very impressed by the push button Archangelo has been. However over the years I have seen many New York horses come west coast to the Breeders cup and not perform for whatever reason. I respect the Japan runners here. and even though I do not like his horse, Baffert has a knack for winning the classic. 

 So basically telling everyone to "do better*.  Hey, im okay with that, i say that to myself every day when i first wake up.  A good affirmation. 

(why not join the pool this year, your insights will be valued)

But yeah, Races are wide open this year for sure.

Anyone have actual stats on how horses coming fom NY and east coast do in the bc races?  Especially the chalky looking ones?..

[spiderjohn]

A no-win situation as discussed here, and I understand both angles.

Last year was pretty much a $5600 p5 spread, hoping to nail a couple of the usual bc bombs—it didn’t happen. The favorites were pretty logical and they ran to their odds. Appleby and O’Brien brought legitimate favorites who delivered. Dirt races were very formfull.

I don’t see that happening this year, and if there was a year for a $5600 ticket, this edition might qualify. Until this evening, I couldn’t tell you who the favorites might be……I may not even try p3/4/5 much this year unless I single/all/all a couple of times—I have one of those in mind…..

Our ticket was a winner before the gentleman doubled our stake, and while hitting the 6 we lost a little $$—-hard to imagine that happening again this year. I can’t begin to construct a ticket with $2000 this year, though I hope it to be a winner.

The man made a generous offer last year, and it was much appreciated. Just was short on the payout.

[1hooper]

Kinross at 9-1 and Clariere at 6-1 lost by less than a length for us and Stone Age at 12-1 ran 2nd. We got back $18 per share.

[UpInClass]

SATURDAY ODDS & ENTRIES

[mysaladdays]

Oct 29, 2023 9:00:49 GMT -5 tenfurlongs said:

I don't think Balladeer is going to pass other horses to win. His best work is on the front end. SA can certainly favor speed, Balladeer has a fine course resume, and he improved this summer. However, the 'best' horses he ever defeated are Masteroffoxhounds, another front-running sort which doesn't strike fear into anyone's heart, and Gold Phoenix, a deep-closer whose style suits Del Mar better. If he was a 'lone-speed', you might make a case for him. With Get Smokin signed up, and Mostahdaf which has a high cruising speed right there also, I can't see him lasting to the wire, especially at 12 furlongs which he has never tried. Not using on any of my tickets, FWIW.




TW

We alI have a few days.  none of my early thoughts are in stone, I will come back and edit all my picks.  Right now I feel like I'm just making clutter here.

[eye123]

 
 
PK5 (7-11)    3,4,9/5,8,9/1,3,12/all/7,8,9   $.50   =   $486     Saver ticket     

[tenfurlongs]

Here are my top selections for Races 6-11 (bold = best):


BC Mile- Mawj, Songline, Kelina, Master of The Seas 

BC Distaff- Pretty Mischievous, Idiomatic, Adare Manor

BC Turf- Onesto, Auguste Rodin, Up To The Mark, Mostahdaf

BC Classic- Zandon, Saudi Crown, Arabian Knight

BC Turf Sprint- Live In The Dream, Motorious, Caravel, One Timer

BC Sprint- Dr. Schivel, Elite Power, Gunite




TW

[merasmag]

i don't understand all the talk of switching to a pick 5 ticket instead of playing the p6
ON THE DISTAFF THREAD

why wouldn't that SUBJECT be here?
i just mentioned doing a saver on the classic with a superhighfivebet
and
all of a sudden people turn left and are talking about a p5
the race we'd be leaving off doing the p5 instead of p6 is the MILE
shouldn't need more than 4 there
i have NO IDEA why anyone would think the p5 will pay better than the p6.

[merasmag]

www.equibase.com/content/custompps/breederscup/110423.pdf

[cherokeescot]

Nov 1, 2023 21:49:26 GMT -5 merasmag said:

i don't understand all the talk of switching to a pick 5 ticket instead of playing the p6
ON THE DISTAFF THREAD

why wouldn't that SUBJECT be here?
i just mentioned doing a saver on the classic with a superhighfivebet
and
all of a sudden people turn left and are talking about a p5
the race we'd be leaving off doing the p5 instead of p6 is the MILE
shouldn't need more than 4 there
i have NO IDEA why anyone would think the p5 will pay better than the p6.

Remind me again what your contribution to the pool is . 

[merasmag]

1 share paid by my salad days so i didn't have to jump thru hoops
whether or knot i sent her a check is none of your f'n business
if i opened a venmo account just to send it to you would you still ask
such a condescending question?
oh wait...u probably would
BECAUSE DIABLO123 paid THROUGH TOM AND THERE'S NO ASTERISK BY HIS NAME!

FYI---asking people to buy in on one thing and
substituting another
has a name

[tenfurlongs]

The way that the math works, there are only so many runner-combinations we can look at in a Pick-6, especially without a single in any given leg. I personally don't see a single that has a better than typical favorite chance (~33%) of winning, and I haven't seen anyone else put forward one.

So if we need to use at least two in each leg, and we have about $2000 to play with, here are some of the combos we can entertain:

4x4x4x3x3x3 = 1728

5x4x4x4x3x2 = 1920

5x5x4x3x3x2 = 1800

6x4x4x3x3x2 = 1728

7x4x4x3x3x2 = 2016

8x4x3x3x3x2 = 1728

10x5x3x3x2x2 = 1800

12x3x3x3x3x2 = 1944


For what it's worth. 




TW

[jolyb]

Tom,  I'm not one of the paticipants in the pool, so forgive me for this intrusion.  It is also kind of late in the process to add this wrinkle, but here goes anyway.  Your comments about the limitations of the $2,000 bankroll are spot on, but it is possible to get a bit better mileage from a bankroll by using the Stephen Crist "A,B,C" method of ticket construction. 

It results in creating multiple tickets and lets you assign a greater portion of your bankroll to the horses that you think have a greater chance of winning by having them appear on a greater percentage of your tickets.  The link below provides a short explanation of this method.  If you have an account at DRF Bets, you can access their "ticket maker" software that will create the actual tickets for you once you have identified your choices and assigned your "A", "B" and "C" horses.

There are also severe downsides to this methodology.  I'll just mention a couple of them:  (1)  It can be a lot more time consuming, since you have to spend time determining which category you want to assign to each of your picks. (2) someone in the group needs to be trusted with the unenviable task of using the software to create multiple tickets and placing the bet.  This can be time consuming (3) It is entirely possible that you will have all of the 6 winners somewhere in your array, but not have them all on the single ticket, so will not have a winner.  This can happen if several of the horses you assign as "B's" or "C's" are   the winners.  This can be extremely frustrating.

I'm not recommending that your group suddenly switch to a methodology with which you might not be familiar at this late hour.  However, for future efforts at taking down a big pick 6 pool, this is a technique that can give you a lot more coverage with a somewhat limited bankroll.  If nothing else, it is worth a bit of study as a possible alternative.

Here's a link for further reading:

www.amwager.com/horse-racing/abc-wagering-multi-race-bets/

[eye123]

5x5x5x4x2x2  = $2,000


Playing one ticket weighs every selection the same.  What if we stood on two horses as singles (say White Abbario,Elite Power(as examples) ) The 5x5x5x4 portion could be adjusted (depending on how deep or light we choose to go in the four races 10x5x5x2 or the 5x5x5x4( if we keep that)...then single White Abbario(using as example of a single selected) to Elite Power+1 other runner(say Speed Boat or Gunite)($1,000) for ticket one...ticket two the 10x5x5x2 or 5x5x5x4 plus Elite Power (as our single) to two runners other then White Abbario(we have that ticket) in the Classic say ?? (any two runners there)  for ticket two $1,000. Two tickets each $1,000  giving us the same selections in the four races(the 10x5x5x2 or 5x5x5x4 we chose plus should either single win...being alive to the other single plus either one or two horses (depending on which single we gave preference too) 

[eye123]

Should the pick 5 route be chosen an example of recent payoffs on the Sat  late pk5 wager at the Breeders Cup


2022 (with Flightline)   $353.63

2021  $48,292.10

2020   $81,406.70

2019 $1,783.30