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Post by tenfurlongs on Oct 20, 2023 10:20:50 GMT -5
Juv Turf Sprint-
Can't go past Big Evs. Only blemish on his record (5/3-1-0) is when they tried him against older (he's a 2yo) in the Nunthorpe Stakes (GI), only beaten six lengths by Live In The Dream and Highfield Princess. Progressive son of Blue Point won the GII Flying Childers last out. Likes to be on the front end, which won't hurt him at SA. Trainer Mick Appleby (no relation to Charlie) sounds enthused.
from DRF-
Big Evs, the winner of the Group 2 Flying Childers, Group 3 Molecomb, and Windsor Castle, is the favorite on the early line by Daily Racing Form’s David Aragona. He is being prepared to take on the challenges of travel, a left-handed course, and an American starting gate, according to trainer Mick Appleby.
“He’s in good form, we’ve just freshened him up a bit and he seems in good order,” Appleby told the European press. “Hopefully he stays that way until he goes. He flies out on Oct. 26. He’s got to have 48 hours in quarantine, then he’ll be able to go out on track two or three times before the race.
“We’re going to take him for a racecourse gallop so we can run him around a bend. Obviously he’s never raced around a bend before but I don’t think it’ll be an issue. He’s got to do a bit of [gate] work with a bell but I think we’re going to do that when he’s out there so he can get used to the [gate] there.”
Of the American runners, I landed on No Nay Mets. Undefeated other than a faulty run at Royal Ascot, he's all speed and has won at three different tracks. Bred by Coolmore, he sold for just over $1M at the Goff's London sale on the eve of Royal Ascot this year.
from Coolmore-
No Nay Mets (2c No Nay Never - Etoile by War Front) was billed as one of the highlights of the Goffs London Sale and duly delivered as he sold to Liam Culman of Tuckernuck Stables for £800,000 on the eve of Royal Ascot.
No Nay Mets booked his ticket to Royal Ascot with an uncontested win in the Royal Palm Juvenile Stakes at Gulfstream Park on May 13th for trainer George Weaver and Bergman Family Racing, and is one of three juvenile stakes winners for his sire already this season.
The bay was bred by Coolmore and hails from the illustrious family of Gr.1-Derby winner Pour Moi and Gr.1-Breeders’ Cup Juvenile Fillies Turf victrix Pizza Bianca (Fastnet Rock). No Nay Mets was sold as a yearling by Baroda Stud at Arqana for €180,000.
Looking at two others for the top honors: Crimson Advocate, which won the Queen Mary Stakes (GII) at Royal Ascot for trainer George Weaver, and then went to the sidelines for a break. I also note that at some point, she was purchased by Wathnan Racing. Anyone know more about this, or when it occurred?; Starlust, which has been busy in GB for trainer Ralph Beckett and owned by the Hays, he has never run shorter than six furlongs but ran very well during the summer and exits the GI Middle Park Stakes (GI) where he was fifth behind Vandeek and River Tiber, so he's been keeping good company.
Other horses with a shot at the underneath spots are Cherry Blossom, the progressive Givemethebeatboys, and Tiger Belle. All four of those runners are from UK//IRE. I tried to like the other American runners, but outside of Slider none of them looked ready for this level, and I'll note that this is by far the strongest group that English and Irish trainers have ever sent for this race since its recent inception.
TW
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1hooper
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Post by 1hooper on Oct 20, 2023 10:30:44 GMT -5
Big Evs second dam a champion in Europe, graded stakes winner at 5,6 and 7 furlongs. Quality.
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Post by tenfurlongs on Oct 20, 2023 11:46:43 GMT -5
Juv Fillies-Tamara looks to be okay ( sarcasm.) I think her dam liked Santa Anita, too. Tamara skipped the Chandelier Stakes (GII), the local prep for the Juvenile Fillies, so this will be her two-turn debut. I am not worried about that. Of the others, VV's Dream won the Pochahontas (GIII) at a mile at CD, then was a length second to Candied in the GI Alcibiades at KEE first time at two-turns. Both of those runners exit the strongest prep race of the season. I'd be very surprised if the winner isn't one of those three, although I'll be rooting for Steve Weston's runner Jody's Pride going long the first time. www.thoroughbreddailynews.com/pharoah-filly-cruises-in-rained-off-matronOne other runner for the top spot could be Just FYI, which won a sloppy edition of the Frizette Stakes (GI) at Baqueduct. Daughter of Justify looked good doing it, and beat a small but select field. Underneath possibilities are Alys Beach, Chatalas, Jody's Pride, and Life Talk. TW
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Post by tenfurlongs on Oct 20, 2023 13:44:05 GMT -5
Juv Fillies Turf-
Narrowed the possible field to eight runners as of today. The four I would use on top would be Carla's Way, Content (if Ryan Moore is riding), Porta Fortuna, and She Feels Pretty.
Carla's Way has been highly progressive through four starts, winning the GII Rockfel at Newmarket in her last. The third and second-place finishers there returned to run one-two in the GI Fillies Mile last Friday, so that form is rock-solid. Good ground suits, and I would not overlook this one, as the Crisfords are veteran horsemen that ship worldwide to win (Simon used to be the Godolphin racing manager for twenty years, before reinventing himself as a trainer.)
Content was not Aidan O'Brien's first choice (Opera Singer) but here she is, fresh off a GIII win at the Curragh four weeks ago. Daughter of Galileo has two wins in six starts, handles good ground. Not the best looking 2yo he has ever sent over, but couldn't leave her off the ticket comfortably.
Porta Fortuna has been progressive through six starts, going 3/1-1-1 in last three GIs. Pedigree suggests a mile is well within her scope, Donnacha would like to join his dad and brother as a BC-winning trainer. Very interested to see who rides (Dettori, Murphy?)
She Feels Pretty IMO ran the best race of the N. American runners under consideration, in the Natalma S. (GI) at Woodbine. She will likely have to improve again, but third time runners often do that. Johnny Velazquez seems like a good fit for her, too. And before you say "Woodbine is a big, wide, sweeping turf course nothing like Santa Anita," she won on debut at Ellis Park going 5 1/2F, from far back in the field, closing with a rush.
Others getting a look underneath are Buchu, Hard To Justify, Laulne which is a question mark on firm ground, and Les Pavots which ran with good ones all season in France.
TW
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Post by tenfurlongs on Oct 22, 2023 12:36:17 GMT -5
Juvenile-
Locked is a progressive $425K Gun Runner colt, broke his maiden easily from the mile chute at Saratoga, then had a wide trip win in the Breeders' Futurity (GI) at Keeneland over the solid The Wine Steward (NYB), which will probably become a miler-type next season.
Muth is a $2M Good Magic colt, two-for-two at SA, highly-progressive runner won the American Pharoah (GI) over C&D in last and will be a typical heavily bet Baffert-type.
Timberlake broke his maiden by nine at ELP going seven, then backed it up at Saratogain the Hopeful S., beating all but 55-1 longshot Nutella Fella in that GI. Won the GI Champagne at Baqueduct going a mile over a sloppy track around one turn.
Others for underneath include the speedy General Partner, the speedy Prince of Monaco, the NYB standout The Wine Steward, and the speedy Wine Me Up.
Best preps appeared to have been The Breeders' Futurity and the American Pharoah. Leaning towards the home team (CA) for this one.
Breeders' Futurity (GI), Keeneland-
American Pharoah S., Santa Anita-
TW
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Post by tenfurlongs on Oct 22, 2023 14:20:43 GMT -5
Juvenile Turf-
Could only narrow this to eight runners, so this may be a deep leg in horizontal bets. The four that I'm looking at for the top spot are:
Carson's Run progressed well through his three starts, with a good second in Saratoga GIII, then an impressive win at Woodbine in the Summer Stakes (GI), where he was held out the back until he made a slingshot move to circle the field and win going away. Trainer Clement is usually pretty conservative with sending horses to the BC, so this one will get extra consideration if he goes. Closer will be at the mercy of pace and positioning, but clearly has a good late run.
Endlessly looks like the real deal. Undefeated and highly progressive, Oscar Performance colt won the GIII Juv Turf at closer-friendly Del Mar before repeating in similar off-the-pace fashion at Santa Anita in the Zuma Beach (GIII) over loose-on-the-lead pacesetter. Trainer McCarthy has proven that he can deliver on the BC stage.
River Tiber has been solid (5/3-0-2) for Aidan O'Brien, finishing two lengths behind Vandeek last twice in GIs, and that one is probably the best 2yo colt in the UK//IRE behind City of Troy. O'Brien said (paraphrasing) "...we know that ours don't have the pace like the Americans will at Santa Anita, so we try ones that are quick enough to win at 6F but are bred to go longer," rather than trying to put speed into a Galileo, Camelot, or Frankel colt.
Unquestionable has progressed nicely through five starts for O'Brien the elder, finishing one-length second to Rosallion in French GI on Arc day. Suspect Moore ends up on this fella, but we'll see.
Others in the mix underneath are longshot Grand Mo the First (John D. Gunther bred, Uncle Mo over Giant's Causeway), Mountain Bear, My Boy Prince, and locally-based longshot Stay Hot. NY, KY, MD preps seemed sub-par this year.
TW
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Post by tenfurlongs on Oct 30, 2023 16:40:13 GMT -5
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Post by UpInClass on Oct 31, 2023 0:03:31 GMT -5
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Post by tenfurlongs on Nov 1, 2023 19:56:34 GMT -5
TW
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1hooper
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Post by 1hooper on Nov 3, 2023 7:02:08 GMT -5
Didn't like Tamara in the morning late this week.
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Post by tenfurlongs on Nov 3, 2023 7:16:07 GMT -5
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tex
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Post by tex on Nov 3, 2023 7:35:33 GMT -5
Race 5 - Big Evs, Slider
Race 6 - Tamara , Jody's Pride, Brightwork
Race 7 - Carla's Way, Laulne Austere
Race 8 - Wine Me Up (LS play of the day) General Partner Muth
Race 9 - My Boy Prince (wire to wire) River Tiber Stay Hot
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1hooper
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Post by 1hooper on Nov 3, 2023 8:17:42 GMT -5
Didn't look like she wanted to gallop but I had never seen her in the morning before this week. Wonder if the Cali clockers noticed a difference. |
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ozzy
UpInClass Member
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Post by ozzy on Nov 3, 2023 11:17:19 GMT -5
Few strong opinions on the day so will tread lightly overall and hope to build a bankroll for tomorrow on a couple strong thoughts.
Juv Turf Sprint - no real feel at all Maybe use Big Evs - Slider - No Nay in some form tri, exactas
Juv Fillies: Tammara will be way over bet considering. Might try a bomb I’ve been following in Accomodate Eva and certainly will use as a key in Ex and Tris with the fav, Candied, and perhaps with Just FYI
Juv Filly Turf: She Feels Pretty for me with Gala Brand, Porta Fortuna, and Hard to Justify. Hesitant to leave Buchu off so will evaluate
Juv: Timberlake over Locked heavily and smaller reversed. Baffert can just beat me.
Juv Turf: Actually a price in Tok Tok given trouble last out with Carson’s Run, Unquestionable, possibly endlessly in multi?
Like I said, treading lightly, pressing Accomodate Eva and Tok Tok hitting the board and She Feels Pretty winning
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Post by cherokeescot on Nov 3, 2023 12:44:29 GMT -5
Juv Turf Sprint - No Nay Mets and Big Evs
Juv Fillies: Tamara and Just F Y I
Juv Filly Turf: Porta Fortuna and She Feels Pretty for me
Juv. Muth and Prince of Monaco as Baffert home court advantage shows. Noted to hit the board at a price
Juv Turf: Unquestionable to help brighten O’Brien’s day . Endlessly to run him close
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Post by cindyloujazz on Nov 3, 2023 12:52:00 GMT -5
R5: Exb, No nay Mets, Big Evs, Tiger Belle & Cherry Blossom
R6: Going with longshot Life Talk 20-1, Irad, TAP with Candied, Chatalas, Tamara, Bright Work & Just FYI
R7: LOVE #5 Content, with Buchu, She Feels Pretty, Hard to Justify & Dreamfyre
R8: I like Fierceness, Locked, Timberlake
R9: My Boy Prince, speed. with Air Recruit, Stay Hot, Agate Road, Unquestionable & Endlessly.
Good luck to all!
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Post by elkurzhal on Nov 3, 2023 13:17:11 GMT -5
Nice work here everyone.
Race 1 - Really Like 1 Ace of Clubs. Was thrown into the deep in for his first turf try and seemed to handle it well. Got a 11 on tgraph which is the fastest in the field and drew the rail so should get a nice ground saving trip.
Race 2 - 5 Miranda might be something pretty special. won super easy 1st out and Mandella usually much better 2nd out.
Race 3 - 10 Brandonsmylawyer - gets the adventurous outside post down the hill and Rosiro may be struggling lately, but is still one of the better down the hill riders. His TG figs fit and Peters Eurton's discovered some new hay and oats, getting 33% new tops and 45% pair ups from 45 starters with tgraph patterns and 30% winner (3.04 ROI) last 90 days.
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Post by quickcall on Nov 3, 2023 13:23:18 GMT -5
Not overlooking Casse today.
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Post by elkurzhal on Nov 3, 2023 13:46:28 GMT -5
Race 4 - 11 Magic Spoon missed the break last time, as sometimes happens with firsters from the 1 post. seemed to be maybe a little green and hard ridden to stay with the field, then swung wide and really kicked away in the stretch. Should like the extra furlong and should put this group away easily with a better trip.
Race 5 - Really tough race - Like 11 Slider, but do not like the post at all. This race and the turf sprint have been dominated by US horses, the euro's have had some recent success and I think recency bias is creeping into the prices here. Plenty happy to take the US side here at inflated prices.
Race 6 - Candied has two turn experience and looks like she should be improving.
Race 7 - 9 Carla's Way has a huge shot here. fast on TG and seems agile and speedy enough to handle 2 turn mile race.
Race 8 - Meh group of 2yo routers IMO. Locked probably best, but not crazy about him or any of the others.
Race 9 - Scratch of River Tiber really opens this up. Moore moves to the OBrien horse he didn't pick because he gets too worked up and headstrong. Lots of Obrien scratches have me wondering about the whole group maybe picking up some kind of bug or something. I'll take a shot on Stay Hot for the en fugo Eurton.
Race 10 - Elector has been sharp in the mornings for his comeback after a 1 year absence, and I think gives the favorites a run for the $
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Post by mysaladdays on Nov 3, 2023 14:49:28 GMT -5
Played on paper so far, no wagers. But not hitting well. But I'll keep trying---had to change things around since several of my horse's scratched:
R5: Tiger Belle - w/No Nay Mets, Crimson Advocate, Big Evs
Edit: adding in Valiant Force here to mess up my orig picks
R6: Brightwork, Joy's Pride - w/ Tamara, Omaha Girl, Scalable Where's My Riing
R7: Laulne, Buchu w/ Dreamfyre, Porta Fortuna, Content
R8: Locked - w/ Fierceness, Muth, Cuban Thunder
R9: Unquestionable, Endlessly w/Tok Tok, My Boy Prince, Can Group
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Post by mysaladdays on Nov 3, 2023 15:07:09 GMT -5
Forgot R4: I like Mici's Express, Magic Sppon - w/Stay on the Fence (longshot), Mr Suds (longshot), Dr. No No
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lure
UpInClass Member
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Post by lure on Nov 3, 2023 15:08:32 GMT -5
My TVG/FD is so slow. Anyone else?
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Post by mysaladdays on Nov 3, 2023 15:22:22 GMT -5
Forgot R4: I like Mici's Express, Magic Sppon - w/Stay on the Fence (longshot), Mr Suds (longshot), Dr. No No Came in Magic Spoon, Private Gem, Dr. No No, Mici's Express. That #6 Private Gem messed up all the exotics played.  |
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Post by mysaladdays on Nov 3, 2023 16:05:51 GMT -5
Edit: adding in Valiant Force here to mess up my orig picks Well that was a good idea. Put a couple singles on him based on my hunch 23-1 helped my bankroll 10 . $20.40 $13.20 |
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Post by cherokeescot on Nov 3, 2023 16:09:28 GMT -5
Big Evs was as good as we all thought he was. Tremendous finish by Valiant Force who came from the car park !
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Post by merasmag on Nov 3, 2023 16:15:50 GMT -5
Edit: adding in Valiant Force here to mess up my orig picks Well that was a good idea. Put a couple singles on him based on my hunch 23-1 helped my bankroll 10 . $20.40 $13.20 CONGRATS! |
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Post by merasmag on Nov 3, 2023 16:18:04 GMT -5
My TVG/FD is so slow. Anyone else? if you are a tvg/fan duel newbie you SHOULD BE ADVISED there is a 90 second DELAY ON THE APP don't go by their feed to make your bets get on a REAL computer and go to tvg.com for LIVE |
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Post by tenfurlongs on Nov 3, 2023 16:30:32 GMT -5
BC Juv Fillies- Ended up going against Tamara. She'll be the biggest favorite of the whole weekend, there are questions about her sharpness the last few days, so might as well bet against to try to get paid. Candied won well at KEE, Just FYI won in the slop at BAQ. Not thrilled with the post for either, though.
EX- 1,12/1,2,6,7,11,12
Also betting a 2/ALL exacta wheel for our friend Steve Weston. Talked with him about Jody's Pride after she won by 10 at Saratoga, he owned the broodmare too, which was fragile and won both of her only two starts a year apart. Heart bet, worth every penny either way.
TW
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ozzy
UpInClass Member
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Post by ozzy on Nov 3, 2023 16:51:59 GMT -5
Nice tab Tom! My long shot failed to run much at all.
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Post by tenfurlongs on Nov 3, 2023 16:55:44 GMT -5
Nice tab Tom! My long shot failed to run much at all. Thanks Ozzy. Man, I was down on my knees rooting Jody's Pride home, Flavien kept coming and coming, just fell a neck short. My neighbors may have called the cops from all the yelling...  . TW |
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