We're Talkin' Florida Derby

[Badactor]

Saturday, April 1st 2023.

ODDS & ENTRIES

[mysaladdays]

Only 6 horses since 2001 (turn of the century) have won the Florida Derby AND the Kentucky Derby: Monarchos (2001), Barbaro (2006), Big Brown (2008), Orb (2013), Nyquist (2016), Always Dreaming (2017). There have been 15 in all and 2 of them before year 2000 were: Northern Dancer (1964) and Spectacular Bid(1979)

Can you name the other 7?

[5wide]

I like Mage to run a big race , had a rough Holy Bull run , hit the gate , widest all the way around and steadied in the str. Not sure he can beat Forte, so will play him to win and under Forte str ex .

Jungfrau is an interesting entry. Juddmonte and Mott are not in the habit of running without chance. May add him to the mix .

[merasmag]

Mar 28, 2023 21:31:21 GMT -5 5wide said:

I like Mage to run a big race , had a rough Holy Bull run , hit the gate and steadied in the str. Not sure he can beat Forte, so will play him to win and under Forte str ex .

Jungfrau is an interesting entry. Juddmonte and Mott are not in the habit of running without chance. May add him to the mix .

don't make any "merasmagmistakes"   
or do... i liked mage b4 and i like him now

i will now call that MMM 4 short-means u had the horselet(s)(TM) and STUPIDLY didn't bet right (didn't do your favorite combo in a 7 entry race, in a hurry, scared, tvg keeps making u reboot, drunk etc)
it IS the hardest thing to learn from

[mysaladdays]

I don't play the Gulfstream track so I'm really clueless here. I will have to research outside posts for graded stakes route races and see what shakes out.

So for now, I'll just post some interesting data and some "out of this world" longshots, based on flotsam and jetsam, from that.  Since approximately 77% of horses who win or make the Derby gate were bred in KY:

Kolomio bred in New York (Funnycide, Shipsational, Golden Code, Un Ojo)
Shaq Diesel bred in Florida (Life is Great, Smarten Up, Simplification, Needles, Silver Charm, Unbridled, Triple Crown winner Affirmed, Foolish Pleasure, Carry Back, Medina)
Natuical Star bred in Oklahoma (couldn't find any)

Historicals by state:  horses who made KY Derby gate or won Derby:

Ill breds (Riva Ridge, Dust Commander )
California breds (California Chrome, Decidedly, Swaps, Morvich)
Virgina (Secretariat, Sea Hero, Pleasant Colony, Reigh Count )
Tennessee: (Typhoon II, Kingman, Lord Murphy)
Maryland (Kauai King)
Kansas (Lawrin )
Ohio (Wintergreen)
Missouri (Elwood)
Montana (Spokane)
New Jersey (Regret, Cavalcade)
Pennsylvania (Smarty Jones, Lil E. Tee)
Texas- (Middleground, Assault ).
Canada (Northern Dancer, Sunny’s Halo)
Great Britain (Omar Khayyam,Tomy Lee)

Therefore, my longshot bombs for exotics in the FL Derby, based on this craziness only:

---Shaq Diesel at 30-1 if you believe in the state-where-bred angle, and want a KY alternative.

---Jungfrau Mott's lasix free homebred at 20-1 (was bumped and rank in the Withers)

---Il Miracolo - another L free horse if you have a penchant for Candy Rides.  (Lots of bad breaks, fractious in gate, on wrong lead, etc. but seems to have the will to keep on)

---Nautical Star - only if you want a chance to have a KY Derby winner from Oklahoma, and that can't happen unless one makes the gate; there haven't been any in history that I know of?


Really, I haven't looked at the PPs other than looking for trouble and lasixed free, so no due dilligence to speak of at all in terms of doing ACTUAL handicapping.  This was just for fun.  

[mysaladdays]

Mar 29, 2023 19:35:23 GMT -5 mysaladdays said:

---Shaq Diesel at 30-1 if you believe in the state-where-bred angle, and want a KY alternative.

---Jungfrau Mott's lasix free homebred at 20-1 (was bumped and rank in the Withers)

Actually, looking deeper into Shaq's pedigree and conduit mare profile, I think I will keep him around for a longshot. 

[Badactor]

Forte at a pianismo price... there must be something else.
Love reading the comments. Keep'em comin'. Thanks!

[merasmag]

Mar 29, 2023 19:35:23 GMT -5 mysaladdays said:

I don't play the Gulfstream track so I'm really clueless here. I will have to research outside posts for graded stakes route races and see what shakes out.

So for now, I'll just post some interesting data and some "out of this world" longshots, based on flotsam and jetsam, from that.  Since approximately 77% of horses who win or make the Derby gate were bred in KY:

Kolomio bred in New York (Funnycide, Shipsational, Golden Code, Un Ojo)
Shaq Diesel bred in Florida (Life is Great, Smarten Up, Simplification, Needles, Silver Charm, Unbridled, Triple Crown winner Affirmed, Foolish Pleasure, Carry Back, Medina)
Natuical Star bred in Oklahoma (couldn't find any)

Historicals by state:  horses who made KY Derby gate or won Derby:

Ill breds (Riva Ridge, Dust Commander )
California breds (California Chrome, Decidedly, Swaps, Morvich)
Virgina (Secretariat, Sea Hero, Pleasant Colony, Reigh Count )
Tennessee: (Typhoon II, Kingman, Lord Murphy)
Maryland (Kauai King)
Kansas (Lawrin )
Ohio (Wintergreen)
Missouri (Elwood)
Montana (Spokane)
New Jersey (Regret, Cavalcade)
Pennsylvania (Smarty Jones, Lil E. Tee)
Texas- (Middleground, Assault ).
Canada (Northern Dancer, Sunny’s Halo)
Great Britain (Omar Khayyam,Tomy Lee)

Therefore, my longshot bombs for exotics in the FL Derby, based on this craziness only:

---Shaq Diesel at 30-1 if you believe in the state-where-bred angle, and want a KY alternative.

---Jungfrau Mott's lasix free homebred at 20-1 (was bumped and rank in the Withers)

---Il Miracolo - another L free horse if you have a penchant for Candy Rides.  (Lots of bad breaks, fractious in gate, on wrong lead, etc. but seems to have the will to keep on)

---Nautical Star - only if you want a chance to have a KY Derby winner from Oklahoma, and that can't happen unless one makes the gate; there haven't been any in history that I know of?


Really, I haven't looked at the PPs other than looking for trouble and lasixed free, so no due dilligence to speak of at all in terms of doing ACTUAL handicapping.  This was just for fun.  

THAT was fun? i NEVER find gs fun and find it very hard to take seriously on a daily basis

[mysaladdays]

yes deleted the post, i was in wrong topic. Will go over there now instead

[mysaladdays]

I think one of the dangers here is people thinking Mott is dragging his horse all the way to AR from FL *especially* for this race.....and that is wrong thinking. The horse's owners live here, they are business people in Arkansas and want their horse closer to home now that winter training down in Florida is over. This horse isn't shipping in for the same reasons other horses are, there's a connection to AR with the horse. Mott already talked about this.

[merasmag]

mage/all eb is 22$

[mysaladdays]

despite outside post FORTE towers over this field. Sort of like Quality Road did during his campaign.

I think singling out post #11 as a non-winner makes no sense since there were so many years that only had 8,9 or 10 entrants.  I think Quality Road only ran against 6 or 7 entrants. 

Big Brown won from post #12; Barbaro won from post #10. Those were top rated horses and more in line with Forte's capabilities.


All the others in this race have been running 30-1 races and losing ground. I am just not seeing Forte's match in this race.


Best bet is to play some exotic combos, going for a price like Forte w/West Coast cowboy, Il Miracolo, Mage, Cyclone Mischief (or replace one of these with the Mott horse)

[shoes]

I just watched a video where Angela Herman from Canterbury Park, made a nice case for Nautical Star as an underneath play.

[1hooper]

Apr 1, 2023 8:50:56 GMT -5 shoes said:

I just watched a video where Angela Herman from Canterbury Park, made a nice case for Nautical Star as an underneath play.

Saffie new trainer.
Move up.

[cherokeescot]

Forte is the one to beat obviously but I like the fact that Mage has been taking some money in the KY Derby Futures pool today. Also interested that Luis Saez is riding Mage today rather than go to Oaklawn to take the mount again on Angel of Empire.

[maumeeriverangler]

I like Mage because that was his first time running that far & got a bad start & he has a good post with that short run to the turn, horse reminds me of Maximum Security ran 7 fur & stretched out  & liked the lead & with Luis Saez.Don't need the lead but he will be close to it. 

[cherokeescot]

Looks like Mage is the wise guy horse and I see him going off as second favorite and nowhere near the 10-1 morning line

[goldandmyrrh]

Forte looks like the most likely Kentucky Derby winner, but today in his 2nd race back would be a great time to prep for that Kentucky effort.
Breaking from post #11 at the distance at this track, Big Brown did it but he was running his 3rd lifetime race and needed the top effort. Forte doesn't. I'll take the Mott horse breaking from the rail, Jungfrau, and Nautical Star as the most likely upsetterers. Box all 3. 1-6-11, and 3 to complete the super.

[UpInClass]

[cherokeescot]

Everyone is talking about Forte but look how far back Mage came from . Did Saez make his move too soon ? 

[shoes]

Think they are both big contenders in May depending upon how they come out of the race and train.

[tex]

Heard today the race was re-times by Randy Moss and someone else and ir was 0.9 seconds slowe than posted. Speculate the Beyer woul go from 98 to 92 ore so If that matters to anyone

[tex]

Heard today the race was re-times by Randy Moss and someone else and ir was 0.9 seconds slowe than posted. Speculate the Beyer woul go from 98 to 92 ore so If that matters to anyone

[merasmag]

thanks

[1hooper]

Apr 2, 2023 17:54:43 GMT -5 tex said:

Heard today the race was re-times by Randy Moss and someone else and ir was 0.9 seconds slowe than posted. Speculate the Beyer woul go from 98 to 92 ore so If that matters to anyone

By Bill Finley

After reviewing the race, Equibase has adjusted the final time for Saturday's GI Florida Derby, won by Forte (Violence). The original time of 1:48.51 has been changed to 1:49.37.

In a statement released Sunday by Equibase, the company said that the finish line beam may have been tripped before the horses reached the finish line.

Prior to Equibase recognizing the mistake, the error was caught by the Beyer speed figure team. Initially, Forte was credited with a 98 Beyer figure. That number was lowered to a 95.

[cherokeescot]

WTF , this is 2023 not 1923. What a joke ! 😳

[1hooper]

My brother was at Pletcher barn today, Forte doing good-staying in FL couple more weeks. Will probably go see the barn for last time this year next Sunday. Clocker stories for Saratoga.

[mysaladdays]

Well I'm sure this will offend somebody,and probably more than just 1 or 2, but understand, first of all, that I am more an appreciator of finesse riders than linebacker type of riders like Irad who seems reckless and rides with ego front and center.

I will also say I was not even a little fond of the ride he gave Forte. A True Warrior horse, Pletcher allowed his horse, a very nice willing race horse who is fast, and super Classy, to be gutted, or close to gutted, to win a race he didn't have to win. Irad keep him wide and exposed him to traffic, all unnncessary.

Really, you guys can have Irad. He wants to win $$ and all I can say is thank goodness he was not aboard Barbaro because he's not the kind of rider who will put the horse first IMHO.

Meanwhile I love The Warrior horse (Forte) and pray he is healthy. He should have run like a workout but w/all that money in the win pools I guess you can't do that. That was a TAXING race, and so many wonder how much does it take out of him.


As for Mage, what we learned is he needs gate work. That is where his green-ness shows. He needs to get out of gate faster, and Mage hit the gate badly in his last race in his 2nd lifetime start. Maybe he remembers that.


I had the conversation about Forte with 8 other people who have been involved with our sport for 35 years----This wasn't a TC race, derby + preakness + Belmont. Instead he was expended full out for a mere derby prep race that he didn't even need.

To expect him to do this, 4 times in a row? I said to myself: Well there goes a possible TC Winner.


This is what Smarty Jones did in his grueling 6 race campaign......and as we all know, he went to the shed dead lame. Couldn't even train on his legs afterwards.



MAYBE someone will, or can, explain to me how this race HELPED FORTE. Not Irad's wallet, not owners wallet, etc. But How Did this help FORTE? Did it tighten him up? Did it get him points he needed? Did it make his chances of winning the Derby better? I'm not seeing it. He was pretty washed out before the race, and then, that incredibly taxing effort. Explain how this would be good for any horse. 


My mood, however, was changed to a brighter mode, when I saw his post race walk back to the barn.  Just look at this magnificent horse!

[mysaladdays]

My "outburst", which I somewhat apologize for........but casts no shade on Forte. When he saw Mage his ears pricked up and he motored on by. I'm just not an Irad fan, as I don't like hot-heads. That part won't change. If that is what it takes to be #1 I would say we are encouraging damaging and probably reckless personality types in racing.

But what also surprised me is how there is no head-on replay available of the FL Derby. This is 2023. I''m used to watching races from Japan and Hong Kong where technology is such that you can see every hair on a horse and every type of replay is avaialable.

I even remember when Mike De Kock brought Mubtaahij over and being a true international trainer who often has horses on 4 different continents, is able to monitor every imaginable metabolic readings on his horses from afar.......that is using the technology that is readily available.

FL track cant get their timers to work properly and can't even provide fans with a head on replay? They gotta be kidding. We lost 16 seconds because only 1/2 the runners are visible turning onto the backstretch and the pan shot was so tight you can't see what is happening.

A terrible way to treat horse players and fans of this sport, IMHO.

[1hooper]

Salad, head on of backstretch and stretch drive. Pan on turns.