Post by mysaladdays on Mar 19, 2023 18:46:45 GMT -5
This will be a very hard race for me to cap. I like 4 different horses here, was waiting for each one to show up in a race, but wasn't expecting them to show up in the SAME race.
Of note I believe Litigate had been pointed to this race before he was declared off the trail, and I thought Shoppers Revenge was supposed to go in the AR Derby.
Also of note, FG stretch run is 1346 ft........112 feet longer than the stretch at CDX, and 191 feet longer than AQ and Oaklawn.
I haven't looked closely at the PPs or field yet, but what leaped out at me was that Asmussen put 6F works into 2 of his horses. He rarely does that, (at least not while the cameras are on or not under darkness or something LOL). What I really want to know how much they are galloping, and how often, for a router. And that isn't reported.
That said, works don't usually indicate much to me though, unless I know exactly what the trainer is trying to do with a horse. i noted in the one of the other races successive fast works in a horse indicated intention to SEND, which can sometimes be true. Horse was an E7 so it made sense.
Last Edit: Mar 19, 2023 18:47:52 GMT -5 by mysaladdays
This will be a very hard race for me to cap. I like 4 different horses here, was waiting for each one to show up in a race, but wasn't expecting them to show up in the SAME race.
Of note I believe Litigate had been pointed to this race before he was declared off the trail, and I thought Shoppers Revenge was supposed to go in the AR Derby.
Also of note, FG stretch run is 1346 ft........112 feet longer than the stretch at CDX, and 191 feet longer than AQ and Oaklawn.
I haven't looked closely at the PPs or field yet, but what leaped out at me was that Asmussen put 6F works into 2 of his horses. He rarely does that, (at least not while the cameras are on or not under darkness or something LOL). What I really want to know how much they are galloping, and how often, for a router. And that isn't reported.
That said, works don't usually indicate much to me though, unless I know exactly what the trainer is trying to do with a horse. i noted in the one of the other races successive fast works in a horse indicated intention to SEND, which can sometimes be true. Horse was an E7 so it made sense.
If you're leaning to the Asmussen runners he mentions one very favorably here (at 27:50)
Post by mysaladdays on Mar 20, 2023 7:16:17 GMT -5
I'm trying to decide between these 3 for the win. (it'only Monday 3/20 though right now! and my birthday so got up early to get the most out of my day).
I like to get my thoughts down before the Talking Heads start jamming the noise-to-signal ratio. I also like to cap the races before odds are given out. I don't have PPs with odds yet.
I guess I am liking horses out of the Risen Star:
Single Ruler (my longshot Hero of Order type) Tapits Conquest Sun Thunder
I will have to separate them out and give my reasoning later, but these are 3 that I like for the win so far.
I gave Denington a look. He had to drop weight, drop in class, and also get Lasix in order to win his last race OC80 at FG......he looked good doing it and I bet him to win in that one. But not liking him here. (Of course, though, that's EXACTLY what Cox did with Cybernife last year...Dropped horse from a G3 at 122 lbs, put him in an OC50 at 119 lbs. to win, which he did, and then went on to win the AR Derby.)
Had similar problems with Disarm. I love his pedigree. I'm a huge Candy Ride fan, and Winchell wins these types of races. However, he also had to drop in Class as well as in Weight to win that 7F at SAR. Then, he got 1st time Lasix in the next one (OC100), and couldn't get past Two Eagles River (The same Eagles River, who Verifying beat by 8 lengths)
I don't like Shopper Revenge at all so if you want an Asmussen, I guess Disarm is his best shot.
Last year Zozos had only won a maiden and an OC100 and ran 2nd in the Louisiana Derby, so I guess something like that could happen again for Disarm. Zozos ran on Lasix in both, looking back at the 2022 PPs.
This is the typical green, inconsistency we see in these young horses who are just turning 3 or so, that makes you want to rip your hair out. What we don't know is if he will run better or worse after that Lasix in last. One thing I did find interesting about him.......after last race he started working again after only 8 days, despite the lasix. That's unusual. Usually horses don't work after a race until 12-14 days later. Instant Coffee required 28 days I think. That's not good is it?
And to be perfectly honest, this race looks like a typical super-trainers-who-have-more-than-one-horse-entered type affair. YAWN. On the face of it it look like it's not going to be exciting at all. If only Dallas Stewart would put a horse in for an exotics upset.........but I guess Desormeaux or someone else can fill that idea.
Last Edit: Mar 21, 2023 13:25:02 GMT -5 by mysaladdays
Post by mysaladdays on Mar 20, 2023 9:55:47 GMT -5
Even though the Risen Star wasn't a very good race, I am going to assume horses got something out of running 1-1/8. What do you guys think?
I actually liked watching them in their races before the Risen Star. Did you know that Single Ruler and Tapits Conquest are just barely 3 years old right now? like this week.
And they were learning to stalk and rate, in their races before the risen star. I can't wait to see if they made any progress yet. Only reason I am sticking w/them is because with that FG stretch run is 1346 ft stretch run, at 1-3/16th, I'm just not sure about very lightly raced maidens being able to chew this up yet.
I'm trying to decide between these 3 for the win. (it'only Monday 3/20 though right now! and my birthday so got up early to get the most out of my day).
I like to get my thoughts down before the Talking Heads start jamming the noise-to-signal ratio. I also like to cap the races before odds are given out. I don't have PPs with odds yet.
I guess I am liking horses out of the Risen Star:
Single Ruler (my longshot Hero of Order type) Tapits Conquest Sun Thunder
I will have to separate them out and give my reasoning later, but these are 3 that I like for the win so far.
I gave Denington a look. He had to drop weight, drop in class, and also get Lasix in order to win his last race OC80 at FG......he looked good doing it and I bet him to win in that one. But not liking him here. (Of course, though, that's EXACTLY what Cox did with Cybernife last year...Dropped horse from a G3 at 122 lbs, put him in an OC50 at 119 lbs. to win, which he did, and then went on to win the AR Derby.)
Had similar problems with Disarm. I love his pedigree. I'm a huge Candy Ride fan, and Winchell wins these types of races. However, he also had to drop in Class as well as in Weight to win that 7F at SAR. Then, he got 1st time Lasix in the next one (OC100), and couldn't get past Two Eagles River. I don't like Shopper Revenge at all so if you want an Asmussen, I guess Disarm is his best shot.
Last year Zozos had only won a maiden and an OC100 and ran 2nd in the Louisiana Derby, so I guess something like that could happen again for Disarm. Zozos ran on Lasix in both, looking back at the 2022 PPs.
This is the typical green, inconsistency we see in these young horses who are just turning 3 or so, that makes you want to rip your hair out. What we don't know is if he will run better or worse after that Lasix in last. One thing I did find interesting about him.......after last race he started working again after only 8 days, despite the lasix. That's unusual. Usually horses don't work after a race until 12-14 days later. Instant Coffee required 28 days I think. That's not good is it?
And to be perfectly honest, this race looks like a typical super-trainers-who-have-more-than-one-horse-entered type affair. YAWN. On the face of it it look like it's not going to be exciting at all. If only Dallas Stewart would put a horse in for an exotics upset.........but I guess Desormeaux or someone else can fill that idea.
Sorry it’s late…. Hope you had a wonderful birthday……🎂🎈
Post by mysaladdays on Mar 21, 2023 15:02:21 GMT -5
Again, a reminder, which I think is important: LA Derby is 1-3/16.......and FG stretch run is 1346 ft........112 feet longer than the stretch at CDX, and 191 feet longer than AQ and Oaklawn.
Not sure about Tampa Bay stretch --- I think it is 976 feet, can somebody check me on that one?
Instant coffee looks to move forward again after not being tested last out , others I like to move forward enough to land a blow are Sun Thunder, I have a soft spot for when a green 3yr old hits the front at the top of the str only to shorten late ,reminds me of Colonial Affair in the Peter Pan, then figuring it out and going on to win the Belmont, Tapit's Conquest 10/1 are you serious ?and Denington becomes a player in the slop. Asmussen's pair may become players later in the year, but I think they're behind in prep. Single Ruler, I would have preferred a betterr jock, no offense Dave.
i really luv sun thunder for no other reason but that his name reminds me of sun king...which i learned today is sum mystical thing...anyways just shootin darts anyways so it's him and disarm in all horizontals, verticals, sideways, upways...
Last Edit: Mar 22, 2023 22:13:42 GMT -5 by merasmag
Never tell me the odds-han solo, the empire strikes back
Post by mysaladdays on Mar 23, 2023 22:19:32 GMT -5
I am only coming up with a horse "for the contest". When I see a race I truly can't figure out, I just pass the race, and this would be one.
My "analysis" is long-winded but I wanted to share my thoughts since I probably wasted time capping this, and just wanted to share them.
What we are looking at, with that long FG stretch, in a race that is 1-3/16th, is a horse who can motor along for 3/8 of a mile w/out using ANY energy/gasoline. There are no E types in the race. I doubt there will be any killer speed duels, and not sure how much pace there will be for closers.
We are looking for the horse who is going to be *un-taxed* for most of the race, so when the jockey shakes reins coming around the last turn, this horse will have been holding his energy in abbeyance.........and therefore, have some gasoline left in the tank for that long stretch run.
Unfortunately, because most of these have not run many races, or are still developing, I truly believe "The One" who is going to pull this off is going to be anybody's guess.
I went back and watched Country House's race. Silent Ruler will be like Country House in this race. I am hoping he runs well enough to make the derby gate but I can't use him to win like I did in the Risen Star (if you remember, Country House ran 4th in the LA Derby) .
In the final analysis, we are looking for a Goldencents type. Or War of Will type (won the lecomte and the risen star and then didn't win this because he slipped coming out of the gate and that nightmare killed his chances)......but there's no way By My Standards would have won otherwise. NO WAY.
To that end I am thinking of just taking a shot in the dark and going with the Into Mischief colt, Sun Thunder.
The lingering question for me, and why I won't play this race, is, what will the horses who have any speed at all, according to Brisnet PPs, like Jace's Road, Instant Coffee, Sun Thunder, Cagliostro, Denington, Tapit's Conquest do after coming around that last turn? Are they going to be able to RALLY in that long stretch??? Or, will they have expended themselves for 3/8 of a mile and not have chit left for that long stretch?
Exotics wager: Sun Thunder w/Kingbarns, Tapits Conquest, Single Ruler, Curly Jack, Baseline Beater
Last Edit: Mar 23, 2023 22:31:57 GMT -5 by mysaladdays