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Post by tenfurlongs on Dec 22, 2022 18:41:59 GMT -5
Playing a couple of cheap races rolled up into a pick-3. Trying to beat the bad weather when the arctic front rolls through.
TP R3 (6:55pm ET)- MC15000 6.5F AW 2yo
Cleverly-named #7- Thalberg (6-1) debuts for Cowans, who is hotter than the sun right now. No idea if he can run on AW, straight trainer play. #12- San Marco City (12-1) has some speed works at CD, gets 7lb bug, trainer also off to a good start.
EX- 7,12/5,7,9,12 PICK3- 7,9,12/2,6,7/6,8,9
TP R4 (7:25pm ET)- CLM7500N3L 6F AW 3up
#6- Diamond State (8-1) just missed when dropped to this level in June, claimed and put away until today. Was a decent horse at TDN last summer, has two 5F works over the track, not impossible. #7- Ready Pursuit (8-1) is making the same route-to-sprint move that the trainer won with yesterday, and this horse did just that in September.
EX- 6,7/2,6,7,10
TP R5 (7:55pm ET)- MSW70000 6.5F AW 3up F&M
Boxing 6,8,9 for solid trainers with lightly-raced fillies that ran in better races elsewhere.
EXBOX- 6,8,9
TW
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Post by tenfurlongs on Dec 23, 2022 7:31:07 GMT -5
TP R3 (6:55pm ET)- MC15000 6.5F AW 2yo
Cleverly-named #7- Thalberg (6-1) debuts for Cowans, who is hotter than the sun right now. No idea if he can run on AW, straight trainer play. #12- San Marco City (12-1) has some speed works at CD, gets 7lb bug, trainer also off to a good start.
EX- 7,12/5,7,9,12 PICK3- 7,9,12/2,6,7/6,8,9 Result: 9,8,12 Wesley Ward won with his dropdown favorite. San Marco City made a run on the turn and flattened out a bit, he can be bet back. Thalberg didn't enjoy his first time on a racetrack, trailed throughout.
TP R4 (7:25pm ET)- CLM7500N3L 6F AW 3up
#6- Diamond State (8-1) just missed when dropped to this level in June, claimed and put away until today. Was a decent horse at TDN last summer, has two 5F works over the track, not impossible. #7- Ready Pursuit (8-1) is making the same route-to-sprint move that the trainer won with yesterday, and this horse did just that in September.
EX- 6,7/2,6,7,10 Result: 10,7,2 Ready Pursuit ran well again on the turnback, at 13-1, passed everyone but the winner which was much the best.
TP R5 (7:55pm ET)- MSW70000 6.5F AW 3up F&M
Boxing 6,8,9 for solid trainers with lightly-raced fillies that ran in better races elsewhere.
EXBOX- 6,8,9 Result: 2,5,1 Beginning to think it is unwise to bet MSW events here. Too much uncertainty over FTS-fitness and suitability to AW. More of a crapshoot than actual handicapping.
The former British rider Jason Weaver, who is now a TV presenter, made an observation about Lingfield Park Racecourse (also an AW Tapeta track, in England) that seems to be appropriate to Turfway Park.
He said "I always think it’s a track that lends itself to riding in the ‘third wave’. In races over 1m, for example, the first wave will go with maybe 5f left, round the initial turn, while the second wave will kick into the home straight. The third wave - the 'George Baker wave' - usually attacks at the 1f pole and often comes out best. You don’t want to be way out of your ground, but patience can pay."
I've been watching horses launch bids on the turn, only to come up short in the stretch, getting passed late by horses whose riders put them in position on the turn and then wait until they've straightened out to begin their move. Keeping an eye on that.
TW
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