Opening Day at Tampa 2022
Nov 21, 2022 17:01:27 GMT -5
Post by johnnybattbd on Nov 21, 2022 17:01:27 GMT -5
Opening Day -2022
A lot has changed since I began this adventure (publicly in 2007, but a lifetime before that for my own edification) to prove to myself and the racing world, the value of Multiple Angle Trainer Profiling. I can say unequivocally that the best of those angles are about as reliable as clocks, but this is a game in which most punters want action, lots of it, and what I do requires patience and sound judgement. In the interest of running a business, I’ve always tried to cater to the former but in doing so, I’ve pushed the envelope beyond the limits of what is likely to occur, losing more and more customers the harder I worked at trying to give them what they wanted.
What remains in 2022, is a small hardcore group that has been with me through thick and thin and who don’t require any coddling. I’m most grateful to Kevin, who has been the Sancho Panz to my Don Quixote, offering practical advice and economical Pick Four plays every race day for all these years.
Rich Grunder could destroy the call of a race, but his signature daily sentiment:
“Good luck and good racing!” is classic, and Kevin and I wish that for all of you.
1st – Dobber is 0-19 with 3 ITM with L4-8s. Xavier Rivera makes first start since Dec. 2020 and purchased Camptown Races (3) from Collazo. Rivera WAS 14 & 42 lifetime with a respectable EPS before going dark. Idk, maybe. Wirth is trying desperately to get back in the game and his piece was close to par in best start here last winter. Thejigisup (7) was claimed for $16K here last season and finally got it done at a track that is 6 clicks lower than Tampa on the food chain. I don’t think so. Delgado is 27 & 70 at GP with Dirt Sprints in L5.
Exacta Box 3,4,6
2nd – Proctor was all business last season 11 (5-5-0) and he and Castanon are 35 & 63 when teamed up in L4T. Jesus had an IV of 1.62 from the chute last season, and Tom is at the top of our Trainer Value list with a rating of 2.11 (9th of the top 25).
KOC, similarly, is 16 & 44 in L2T with Diaz Jr. up and Hector’s IV was 2.15 from the chute last season. Leading 3rd Crop Sire Jess’s Dream is another plus for Alexa’s Dream (2), but KOC has no win angle here (but is 59% ITM).
Exactas 6/2,4
3rd – Gallardo is a thief (in the worst sense of the word) but he doesn’t screw over Darien Rodriguez. They are 32 & 62 in L5T. Darien has no win angle here, but he is 28 & 64 in 1st 3 OC. Delaware has produced the most winners at Tampa before Christmas for the past couple of years.
Wilson has a 66% ITM angle, the L1-3 + Dropdown and a 49% ITM angle, the L1-3 + Stretchout and Tony, while among the lowest in EPS on the Trainer Value list for ITM, has a solid rating of 3.44, placing him #17 of the top 25 (most of them big dogs).
Hats off to Arraigada for the first big balls move of the meeting. Native Hawk (9) was well above par in several of his wins here recently and leaves SALW off the layoff. Juan is 19 & 75 with L4-8s and 39% Win when Shipping + the Favorite. This is a head scratcher…
Trifectas 1,9/1,3,6,9/1,3,6,9
4th – The rain ends at 5AM. We’ll probably be on the TURF on Opening Day. Bennett has a very solid bet against here: 0-30 with the S + DtoT, but is he merely the surrogate for Fawkes today or is this the first of many under Gerry’s care??? Only time will tell… Bennett is 26% Win here with 2YOs and JJ Brevan Stable is all business…
Lerman is 27% ITM at $27-1 with the 2TS + FTT + Dropdown…
Dini is 5 (1-0-1) with FTS + FTT angle since his makeover…
If OFF THE TURF, Harty is 38 & 73 in OST races…
Weighted DDs 1,2,4,6,7,8,9/1
5th – Sensible claim by Arraigada and a 32 & 72 off the claim record for Juan, give top billing to Steadytillready (1) returning to the drying but FAST surface today.
Arnett is short on data, but big on wins with his angle here. WA Garcia, one of his regular boys is noticeably absent.
McGoey’s piece is two days over the limit for Non-layoff status, where she has 64% of her wins. The numbers say she’ll get a piece if < 7-2. Sometimes intentions cause me to bend the rules just a bit…
Exacta Key Box 1/3,4
6th – Lerman has no angle here, but Aqu shippers do have an IV of 2.21 in Oldsmar.
Bordis was our #3 bomb maker in 21-22 with 21% bombs at $24-1. This one has his bomb characteristics: Lightly Raced, 1st 3 Turf, Layoff & Shipper. I think I have a crush on Bella Romance (10).
Win 4 and Exacta 4/10 and Trifectas 4/2,5,6/10
$5 Win, $10 Place and Show 10
7th – Mister Fernando (9) went 105-96 on the lawn on May 6th. Today’s par is 89-92. I know turf numbers are less than perfect, but they ain’t that bad. His sire, Quality Road, has 17.8% Winners here at Tampa. Nunn had solid debut meeting. Would be a nice way to begin the new meeting…
Runaway Tom (2) raced forwardly for 6½ a month ago and does the RtS today for Phillip. His sire is 14.3% Win here (9 for 63).
Pass
8th – KOC has a 37% Win record at $12-1 with this 5 characteristic multiple angle: L1-3 + S + UC + No Distance or Surface Change. It doesn’t get much better.
Bennett’s top rider, Camacho, takes a pass for the mount on Vinson’s Morgan Point (10). The 4, 7 & 10 all pass our 3+3 test for the N1X, but Allen Jr. now approaching 60 years old, will have to convince me that he’s still got it (either way I’ll never bet him at 8.5F or longer…nothing personal).
$25 Exacta Key Box 3/4,10 ($100)
9th – Here’s a good one: Delgado is 0-17 if not the favorite with this angle, but 47% win if the favorite with this angle. Chew on that for awhile.
Bennett is logical choice.
Arnett is 12 & 55 with UCEs. Not so hot…
Our #1 bomb maker, Yanez, had 5 bombs > 25-1 last season and he’s 41% ITM at $21-1 with the S + No Class Change. You gonna leave Bionda Surprise (10) out?
Be guided by the board.
Exacta Box 6,8 if 8 is the favorite, otherwise
Exacta Key Box 6/4,10 and Saver Trifectas 6/1,3,11/4,10
A lot has changed since I began this adventure (publicly in 2007, but a lifetime before that for my own edification) to prove to myself and the racing world, the value of Multiple Angle Trainer Profiling. I can say unequivocally that the best of those angles are about as reliable as clocks, but this is a game in which most punters want action, lots of it, and what I do requires patience and sound judgement. In the interest of running a business, I’ve always tried to cater to the former but in doing so, I’ve pushed the envelope beyond the limits of what is likely to occur, losing more and more customers the harder I worked at trying to give them what they wanted.
What remains in 2022, is a small hardcore group that has been with me through thick and thin and who don’t require any coddling. I’m most grateful to Kevin, who has been the Sancho Panz to my Don Quixote, offering practical advice and economical Pick Four plays every race day for all these years.
Rich Grunder could destroy the call of a race, but his signature daily sentiment:
“Good luck and good racing!” is classic, and Kevin and I wish that for all of you.
1st – Dobber is 0-19 with 3 ITM with L4-8s. Xavier Rivera makes first start since Dec. 2020 and purchased Camptown Races (3) from Collazo. Rivera WAS 14 & 42 lifetime with a respectable EPS before going dark. Idk, maybe. Wirth is trying desperately to get back in the game and his piece was close to par in best start here last winter. Thejigisup (7) was claimed for $16K here last season and finally got it done at a track that is 6 clicks lower than Tampa on the food chain. I don’t think so. Delgado is 27 & 70 at GP with Dirt Sprints in L5.
Exacta Box 3,4,6
2nd – Proctor was all business last season 11 (5-5-0) and he and Castanon are 35 & 63 when teamed up in L4T. Jesus had an IV of 1.62 from the chute last season, and Tom is at the top of our Trainer Value list with a rating of 2.11 (9th of the top 25).
KOC, similarly, is 16 & 44 in L2T with Diaz Jr. up and Hector’s IV was 2.15 from the chute last season. Leading 3rd Crop Sire Jess’s Dream is another plus for Alexa’s Dream (2), but KOC has no win angle here (but is 59% ITM).
Exactas 6/2,4
3rd – Gallardo is a thief (in the worst sense of the word) but he doesn’t screw over Darien Rodriguez. They are 32 & 62 in L5T. Darien has no win angle here, but he is 28 & 64 in 1st 3 OC. Delaware has produced the most winners at Tampa before Christmas for the past couple of years.
Wilson has a 66% ITM angle, the L1-3 + Dropdown and a 49% ITM angle, the L1-3 + Stretchout and Tony, while among the lowest in EPS on the Trainer Value list for ITM, has a solid rating of 3.44, placing him #17 of the top 25 (most of them big dogs).
Hats off to Arraigada for the first big balls move of the meeting. Native Hawk (9) was well above par in several of his wins here recently and leaves SALW off the layoff. Juan is 19 & 75 with L4-8s and 39% Win when Shipping + the Favorite. This is a head scratcher…
Trifectas 1,9/1,3,6,9/1,3,6,9
4th – The rain ends at 5AM. We’ll probably be on the TURF on Opening Day. Bennett has a very solid bet against here: 0-30 with the S + DtoT, but is he merely the surrogate for Fawkes today or is this the first of many under Gerry’s care??? Only time will tell… Bennett is 26% Win here with 2YOs and JJ Brevan Stable is all business…
Lerman is 27% ITM at $27-1 with the 2TS + FTT + Dropdown…
Dini is 5 (1-0-1) with FTS + FTT angle since his makeover…
If OFF THE TURF, Harty is 38 & 73 in OST races…
Weighted DDs 1,2,4,6,7,8,9/1
5th – Sensible claim by Arraigada and a 32 & 72 off the claim record for Juan, give top billing to Steadytillready (1) returning to the drying but FAST surface today.
Arnett is short on data, but big on wins with his angle here. WA Garcia, one of his regular boys is noticeably absent.
McGoey’s piece is two days over the limit for Non-layoff status, where she has 64% of her wins. The numbers say she’ll get a piece if < 7-2. Sometimes intentions cause me to bend the rules just a bit…
Exacta Key Box 1/3,4
6th – Lerman has no angle here, but Aqu shippers do have an IV of 2.21 in Oldsmar.
Bordis was our #3 bomb maker in 21-22 with 21% bombs at $24-1. This one has his bomb characteristics: Lightly Raced, 1st 3 Turf, Layoff & Shipper. I think I have a crush on Bella Romance (10).
Win 4 and Exacta 4/10 and Trifectas 4/2,5,6/10
$5 Win, $10 Place and Show 10
7th – Mister Fernando (9) went 105-96 on the lawn on May 6th. Today’s par is 89-92. I know turf numbers are less than perfect, but they ain’t that bad. His sire, Quality Road, has 17.8% Winners here at Tampa. Nunn had solid debut meeting. Would be a nice way to begin the new meeting…
Runaway Tom (2) raced forwardly for 6½ a month ago and does the RtS today for Phillip. His sire is 14.3% Win here (9 for 63).
Pass
8th – KOC has a 37% Win record at $12-1 with this 5 characteristic multiple angle: L1-3 + S + UC + No Distance or Surface Change. It doesn’t get much better.
Bennett’s top rider, Camacho, takes a pass for the mount on Vinson’s Morgan Point (10). The 4, 7 & 10 all pass our 3+3 test for the N1X, but Allen Jr. now approaching 60 years old, will have to convince me that he’s still got it (either way I’ll never bet him at 8.5F or longer…nothing personal).
$25 Exacta Key Box 3/4,10 ($100)
9th – Here’s a good one: Delgado is 0-17 if not the favorite with this angle, but 47% win if the favorite with this angle. Chew on that for awhile.
Bennett is logical choice.
Arnett is 12 & 55 with UCEs. Not so hot…
Our #1 bomb maker, Yanez, had 5 bombs > 25-1 last season and he’s 41% ITM at $21-1 with the S + No Class Change. You gonna leave Bionda Surprise (10) out?
Be guided by the board.
Exacta Box 6,8 if 8 is the favorite, otherwise
Exacta Key Box 6/4,10 and Saver Trifectas 6/1,3,11/4,10
