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Post by tenfurlongs on Sept 27, 2022 6:46:08 GMT -5
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Post by tenfurlongs on Sept 27, 2022 6:53:21 GMT -5
Hey Hoop, I see Jannah Flower is entered in the Royallieu (14F) on Saturday.
TW
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1hooper
UpInClass Steward
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Post by 1hooper on Sept 27, 2022 7:18:38 GMT -5
Hey Hoop, I see Jannah Flower is entered in the Royallieu (14F) on Saturday. TW Thanks. She ran a good one at Longchamp 2 back, couldn't run down a loose leader. Peter Brant has the 2yo full brother to Fleeting with Jos. O'Brien, Academian. The mare was bred to his Arc winner Sottsass the last report I saw. |
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Post by tenfurlongs on Sept 29, 2022 14:44:05 GMT -5
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Post by tenfurlongs on Sept 30, 2022 19:07:13 GMT -5
Saturday 10/1-LON R1 (7:23am EDT)- 1m7f Prix Chaudenay (Group 2) (3yo) (Grande Course) (Turf) (3yo)www.racingpost.com/racecards/211/longchamp/2022-10-01/822495Against conventional wisdom, I'm not playing the even-money favorite (#7) on top. #2- Al Qareem (7-1) had a progressive 3yo season until stubbing his toe last out. Has won on soft ground, and Karl Burke reaches out to Ryan Moore in this spot. Gelding will be happy to lead them as far as he can. #3- Fasol (12-1) progressive Galileo colt ran very well here last time, can go well again. EX- 2,3/1,2,3,7 Result: 2,4,1 Al Qareem ($13.00) was content to sit second under Ryan Moore, and he waited as long as he could before going all in, just lasted to the wire. I couldn't figure the 4 underneath, he seemed a bit short on class but stepped it up today for Andre Fabre and just lost the bob.LON R3 (8:33am EDT)- 1m6f Prix de Royallieu (Group 1) (3yo+ Fillies & Mares) (Grande Course) (Turf) (3yo+) www.racingpost.com/racecards/211/longchamp/2022-10-01/822498
#1- Jannah Flower (15-1) is consistent, likes soft ground, and likes the course (4/2-2-0.) Drew outside, but price will compensate. #4- Sea La Rosa (9-5) is my favorite horse in training, continues to improve as a 4yo, money doesn't matter. WIN- 4 QUI- 1,4/1,2,3,4,8 Result: 4,1,10 Win $72.00 Qui $44.20 That was as good as I could have hoped for, Sea La Rosa ($7.20) got her Group 1 win! I really love that filly, wonder if she'll have one more race before she heads off to the breeding shed? No matter what else happens on the card today, I'm a happy dude. Also, props to Tom Marquand for popping her right out of the gate to secure a forward position just off the rail, after the #10 went on a blistering pace.LON R6 (10:25am EDT)- 2m4f Prix du Cadran (Group 1) (4yo+) (New & Grande Course) (Turf) (4yo+) www.racingpost.com/racecards/211/longchamp/2022-10-01/822497Can't be against #3- Quickthorn (5-1), handles soft, is in peak form, only question is 20F, but with Nathaniel on top pedigree says yes. TRIO- 3/7,9,11/1,4,6,7,9,11 Result: 7,2,4 Kyprios ($3.40). Krushed. Them. LON R7 (11:00am EDT)- 1m2f (1m1f165y) Prix Dollar (Group 2) (3yo+) (Grande Course) (Turf) (3yo+) www.racingpost.com/racecards/211/longchamp/2022-10-01/822499Wide open race for me, wish they had another betting option besides Quinella. QUI- 6,10/1,2,3,4,6,9,10,12 Result: 6,12,9,3 Quinella $30.00 Anmaat ($6.60) looked like the winner until deep stretch when Junko flew up to join him, but Crowley moved his horse alongside the challenger and he re-engaged to just win the head-bob, great race. Should have played the triple, trio wager paid $90.00. Ouch.LON R8 (11:35am EDT)- 1m Prix Daniel Wildenstein (Group 2) (3yo+) (Grande Course) (Turf) (3yo+) www.racingpost.com/racecards/211/longchamp/2022-10-01/822496#1- The Revenant (9-2) ran a bit of a dud last time, but is otherwise a force over course, distance, and ground. #5- Erevann (3-2) 3yo is a progressive superstar-in-waiting for The Aga Khan/Jean-Claude Rouget, could thump these without breaking a sweat. Scary. QUI- 1,5/1,2,5,6,7 Result: 5,1,9 Quinella $6.00 Erevann ($4.80) won comfortably enough over The Revenant, and Soumillon didn't need to elbow anyone out of the way as he was the only one to move to the far side rail entering the 'real' straight. If he was looking for fresh ground he found it. Honestly, the best wager in that race was Erevann to win.
Bet: $100.00 Returned: $152.20 Profit: $52.20
Sunday's card looks fantastic, hoping the weather doesn't complicate things. TW
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shoes
UpInClass Steward
Posts: 2,115
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Post by shoes on Sept 30, 2022 19:12:24 GMT -5
Good luck ten furlongs, I always appreciate your write-ups on these.. Probably just watching Saturday but playing on Sunday. Any projections on turf condition, soft?
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Post by mysaladdays on Oct 1, 2022 3:06:01 GMT -5
Anyone know if twinspires will have this stream? Or if not where I can watch? I seem to remember not being able to watch it or bet or maybe that was something else?
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Post by tenfurlongs on Oct 1, 2022 6:08:30 GMT -5
Good luck ten furlongs, I always appreciate your write-ups on these.. Probably just watching Saturday but playing on Sunday. Any projections on turf condition, soft? Thanks shoes. They didn't have much rain overnight, so the ground should still be classified as 'very soft.' More rain possible early tomorrow, so could get deeper than that. TW |
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Post by tenfurlongs on Oct 1, 2022 6:10:17 GMT -5
Anyone know if twinspires will have this stream? Or if not where I can watch? I seem to remember not being able to watch it or bet or maybe that was something else? Twinspires offers free PPs, but is not taking wagers. I'm betting through 1/ST (the old Xpressbet, Stronach) and they have video. I'm trying to find a live stream (Equidia?, Dubai?) but no luck yet. TW |
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shoes
UpInClass Steward
Posts: 2,115
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Post by shoes on Oct 1, 2022 6:23:59 GMT -5
Think Twinspires might be taking wagers on Sunday. I thought I got notice of a $10 money back special on all races from Longchamp on Sunday as part of their "rest of the world bet back" promotion.
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Post by tenfurlongs on Oct 1, 2022 6:38:11 GMT -5
Think Twinspires might be taking wagers on Sunday. I thought I got notice of a $10 money back special on all races from Longchamp on Sunday as part of their "rest of the world bet back" promotion. Oh, that's good then. Everybody takes at least a casual interest in the 'Arc, I think, so why they wouldn't try to drum up some revenue would be puzzling. But it is CD Inc., after all...  . TW |
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5wide
UpInClass Member
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Post by 5wide on Oct 1, 2022 7:42:08 GMT -5
Anyone know if twinspires will have this stream? Or if not where I can watch? I seem to remember not being able to watch it or bet or maybe that was something else?
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1hooper
UpInClass Steward
Posts: 6,712
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Post by 1hooper on Oct 1, 2022 7:43:24 GMT -5
Hey Hoop, I see Jannah Flower is entered in the Royallieu (14F) on Saturday. TW Nice Q TW. Good effort at 17-1 to get 2nd. |
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Post by tenfurlongs on Oct 1, 2022 8:13:24 GMT -5
Hey Hoop, I see Jannah Flower is entered in the Royallieu (14F) on Saturday. TW Nice Q TW. Good effort at 17-1 to get 2nd. Thanks Hoop! She was flying late, I was getting a little worried there. Not sure if the Australian mare Verry Elleegant has lost a step as a 7yo, or just hasn't cared for France, but the hype was way bigger than the horse. TW |
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Post by tenfurlongs on Oct 1, 2022 8:16:26 GMT -5
Anyone know if twinspires will have this stream? Or if not where I can watch? I seem to remember not being able to watch it or bet or maybe that was something else? Suddenly, Twinspires IS carrying Longchamp on its feed, and is accepting wagers. WIN, SHOW, QUI & OMNI only, it appears. TW |
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docd
UpInClass Member
"Faster horses, younger women, older whiskey, and more money." -Tom T Hall
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Post by docd on Oct 1, 2022 9:12:20 GMT -5
Kyprios @ 1/5.I would bet against after that ride by Moore in the last.He was on Denmark for most the race,must be a lazy mule.Now he has to push for 2M4f 
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docd
UpInClass Member
"Faster horses, younger women, older whiskey, and more money." -Tom T Hall
Posts: 1,643
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Post by docd on Oct 1, 2022 9:21:58 GMT -5
3:25 The price on Lismore is very tempting.Coral has her at 14/1.She's 27/1 on NYRA Bites  |
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Post by tenfurlongs on Oct 1, 2022 9:42:21 GMT -5
Kyprios. Must mean 'drifter' in Greek. Can't wait to hear from Ryan Moore about why the winner sailed all the way across the wide stretch at Longchamp, looking like he was going to give it all away.
TW
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Post by mysaladdays on Oct 1, 2022 10:01:53 GMT -5
Anyone know if twinspires will have this stream? Or if not where I can watch? I seem to remember not being able to watch it or bet or maybe that was something else? Suddenly, Twinspires IS carrying Longchamp on its feed, and is accepting wagers. WIN, SHOW, QUI & OMNI only, it appears. TW TY!!!! |
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Post by tenfurlongs on Oct 1, 2022 10:31:30 GMT -5
Sea La Rosa. Kyprios. Anmaat (Turkish race caller losing his mind...lol .) TW |
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Post by tenfurlongs on Oct 2, 2022 6:59:30 GMT -5
Sunday 10/2-GOING: Very soft (light rain) LON R1 (8:15am EDT)- 7f Prix Jean-Luc Lagardere (Grand Criterium) (Group 1) (2yo) (New Course) (Turf) (2yo)www.racingpost.com/racecards/211/longchamp/2022-10-02/822980The scratch of #5- The Antarctic (2-1) completely changes the race. Using #2- Shartash (5-2) as a quinella key, but now at 1/4 the price I was going to get. QUI- 2/1,3,7,8 Result: 3,6,1LON R2 (8:50am EDT)- 1m Prix Marcel Boussac - Criterium des Pouliches (Group 1) (2yo Fillies) (Grande Course) (Turf) (2yo)www.racingpost.com/racecards/211/longchamp/2022-10-02/822981#12- Blue Rose Cen (6-1) won a GIII prep for this over C&D last month, soft is fine for this progressive filly. QUI- 12/2,4,5,8,11 Result: 12,6,8LON R4 (10:05am EDT)- 1m4f Prix de l'Arc de Triomphe (Group 1) (3yo+ No Geldings) (Grande Course) (Turf) (3yo+)www.racingpost.com/racecards/211/longchamp/2022-10-02/812831I really like #14- Alpinista (9-2) for K. Rausing/Sir Mark Prescott/Luke Morris. 5yo daughter of Frankel has won seven in a row, including GIs the last five. Drew well in PP6, handles all the ground, hopefully. #20- Luxembourg (3-1) is the likely favorite, improving 3yo has won five-of-six, including the Irish Champion S. (GI) over soft ground last time. Aidan O'Brien/Ryan Moore for Westerberg and the Coolmore gang. WIN- 14 QUI- 14,20/2,10,11,12,14,15,17,18,20 Result: 14,15,2 WIN- $86.00 QUI- $30.20LON R5 (10:50am EDT)- 1m2f Prix de l'Opera (Group 1) (3yo+ Fillies & Mares) (Grande Course) (Turf) (3yo+)www.racingpost.com/racecards/211/longchamp/2022-10-02/822982#5- My Astra (8-1) is another top filly from Sunderland/Haggas/Marquand, this time with Sea The Stars as the broodmare sire. Has two Group-winning half brothers, just missed behind La Petite Coco in June. #12- Above The Curve (7-2) drew well, progressive 3yo filly probably has more improvement in her. WIN- 5 QUI- 5,12/1,5,7,9,12,13,14 Result: 8,7,12LON R6 (11:25am EDT)- 5f Prix de l'Abbaye de Longchamp (Group 1) (2yo+) (Sprint Course) (Turf) (2yo+)www.racingpost.com/racecards/211/longchamp/2022-10-02/822983Spreading wide in this, with no real standout form on display. QUI- 5,16,17/5,7,8,12,14,16,17,19 Result: 19,16,5 Quinella $54.60LON R7 (12:00Noon EDT)- 7f Prix de la Foret (Group 1) (3yo+) (New Course) (Turf) (3yo+)www.racingpost.com/racecards/211/longchamp/2022-10-02/822984#1- Kinross (3-2) looks tough, Frankie hoping to make a flying dismount. 3yo filly #8- Sandrine (7-1) is in top form, got the better of Kinross two back at Goodwood. A rare GI at 7F. QUI- 1,8/1,2,4,8,9,10 Result: 1,6,3
Small profit wagering today, but the Arc winner made for a memorable Sunday! Bet: $131.00 Returned: $170.80 Profit: $39.80TW
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1hooper
UpInClass Steward
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Post by 1hooper on Oct 2, 2022 8:49:18 GMT -5
German breds treated me well last year, trying them again.
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Post by mysaladdays on Oct 2, 2022 9:00:28 GMT -5
I'm only watching, not betting. in a field of 20, light rain, any of the 20 can win this.
Longshots I like in the Arc:
Bubble Gift 50-1
Do Deuce 25-1
MOSTAHDAF 30-1
ALENQUER 50-1
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docd
UpInClass Member
"Faster horses, younger women, older whiskey, and more money." -Tom T Hall
Posts: 1,643
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Post by docd on Oct 2, 2022 9:07:53 GMT -5
given the conditions I'll try for an upset
Sealiway needs luck,has the jock.ran to his odds. 
GL
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Post by mysaladdays on Oct 2, 2022 9:18:03 GMT -5
The winner is......amazing. I was rooting for her but didn't want to place a wager. 1937 last time a female won.
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Post by mysaladdays on Oct 2, 2022 9:29:07 GMT -5
Sunday 10/2-I really like #14- Alpinista (9-2) for K. Rausing/Sir Mark Prescott/Luke Morris. Nice call! I have noticed that if a mare is good, they are very very good. Both in US races and abroad. I think in future I will up them by a few points if in that category. She could come to BC but I don't think she will, seems like they're saying she is not a lover of travelling.......but would be perfect for Japan Cup I think. Trainer says she has no "quirks"......easy to train. A "good girl". |
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Post by mysaladdays on Oct 2, 2022 9:37:44 GMT -5
More longshots:
R5:
LA PARISIENNE 3-1
ROSACEA 20-1
Rumi 30-1
Sprint R6:
COEUR DE PIERRE 6-1
MOSS TUCKER 20-1
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Post by tenfurlongs on Oct 2, 2022 9:46:09 GMT -5
Thanks MSD! Alpinista travels well enough, she was campaigned in Germany last year, and debuted this season at Saint Cloud in July. Her trainer, on the other hand, is notoriously averse to international travel. Miss Rausing called him last week and basically told him he 'had' to come over with the mare, otherwise he would have stayed at Newmarket. Bet he's happy he listened to her . Very happy for Sir Mark, for Luke Morris, and for stable lass Annabel, who has been with Alpinista every day for three years. That was her in the mauve fleece jumping up and down, and breaking down in tears just after the race. Did I mention that I really like European racing? TW |
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Post by cherokeescot on Oct 2, 2022 10:20:02 GMT -5
Loved that result. Well done Alpinista 👏
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Post by mysaladdays on Oct 2, 2022 10:38:01 GMT -5
More longshots: Sprint R6: COEUR DE PIERRE 6-1 Ran 3rd. Another filly wins this, history maker again. THE PLATINUM QUEEN(chalk) |
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