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Post by mysaladdays on May 7, 2022 1:38:41 GMT -5
My thoughts on the Ky Derby.
Going for the gusto and under consideration are 8 horses I will be playing in various exotic combinations. Sometimes I also do singles on the homebreds. Since I'm not a pro or a public handicapper I don't feel compelled to list 4 horses succintly, this is more of a food-for-thought list and is probably a little off the wall.
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Homebreds. They go on my ticket every year. Pick one or 2 that you like; or none of them.
Crown Pride, Classic Causeway, Charge It, Zozos. (I would not use Zozos or Charge It in the win spot though).
Sprinkle in some Messier, Simplification, Epicenter. (I would not use Epicenter in the win spot though)
Super Bomber longshots. I have rules on the odds for these. Must go off at 20-1 at post time, so here they are, with my reasoning:
Pioneer of Medina (++E/P8) or Tawny Port ("the other P2") Tawny reminds me of Mine That Bird. I've no prejudice w/tapeta: Graham Motion trained Animal Kingdom on it for the Preakness after his win in the KY Derby. AK also won the World Cup on tapeta. If anything, I have more respect for multi-surface runners who can run on more than one surface. Am I worried about their performances in the Risen Star? Nope. Winners of the Risen Star rarely win the KY Derby, but runners who do poorly in the Risen Star often run ITM w/huge odds in the KY Derby. (I benefited from that last year with Mr. Big News, and the year before w/Country House.) Instilled Regard or Commanding are other examples. Sometimes, they even win: War Emblem, 6th in the Risen Star, 20-1 KY Derby winner
(You may use Zandon or Smile Happy. They won't fit my odds requirement).
**Regrets:
Zandon- sorry but as a closer who isn't jet fast, I can't see you running by 19 other horses to hit the finish line first. But hey, you made the cover of DRF. Next out maybe Centerfold in Sport Illustrated if you win?
Smile Happy- I'll let your daddy prove he can get a classic distance TC race winner.
Cyberknife - despite that the filly you beat beat other fillies in the Oaks today, the AR Derby was one of the worst races in memory for me. I just have no confidence in the AR Derby this year, but you do scare me!
Barber Road- I LOVE you and your connections, and I do mean that. But not today for me. It won't rain enough.
Mo Donegal- you're a Pletcher and your odds are going to have to be lot higher for me to take a risk on you; you look great on paper (but so did Bourbonic). Pioneer of Medina and Charge It will have better odds. BTW, I knew your trainer back when he was 40+ for 0 in the KY Derby and nobody could figure it out. I hope one of you do something to help his record.
Taiba - if you are superhorse everyone will know by tomorrow evening, including yours truly. For now, you are a guy who is being thrown to the dogs off one brilliant race, and I hope you can handle what they have planned for you.
Happy Jack - see you in the Belmont? I hope so.
Rich Strike - I barely knew yee.
Summer is Tomorrow - love your name.
White Abarrio - you are the only one I tossed besides Cyberknife who scares me. But I went for the higher odds horse. Sorry. You sure are gorgeous though! If it's any consolation, Andy Beyer likes you.
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Post by spanky126 on May 7, 2022 7:10:55 GMT -5
Love your handle! Salad days? Thanks for your well thought out opinion on the KD. I may just bet whomever the guy with rolled up sleeves and a rolled up paper takes. Steve Korneki! If Bobby Flay's horse wins all chefs should do a shot!
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Post by Badactor on May 7, 2022 14:24:59 GMT -5
Beautiful post, mysaladdays...
You feel the poetry of the game.
Respect. Knowledge. Passion.
Your triple threat handicapper!
Thank you for being here... Good luck.
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Post by Badactor on May 7, 2022 14:30:19 GMT -5
PS. The odd 50 cent special:
Barber Road zozo's charge it
Ice cold!
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Post by tenfurlongs on May 7, 2022 17:43:42 GMT -5
Ended up betting Mo Donegal and Crown Pride over ALL in exactas as the payoffs outside the four favorites were generous. Good Luck to all!
TW
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Post by tenfurlongs on May 7, 2022 18:09:16 GMT -5
Ended up betting Mo Donegal and Crown Pride over ALL in exactas as the payoffs outside the four favorites were generous. Good Luck to all! TW And that’s why I gave up on American dirt racing…lol. Good night! TW |
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turffan
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Post by turffan on May 7, 2022 18:12:25 GMT -5
Didn't see that coming.
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Post by quickcall on May 7, 2022 18:14:23 GMT -5
Neither did Epicenter and Zandon!
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ziggy
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Post by ziggy on May 7, 2022 18:14:41 GMT -5
Well I had him in the super .... played the zip code 21 1 5 7
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Post by quickcall on May 7, 2022 18:18:53 GMT -5
Was he in the Oaks/Derby doubles?
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tc
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Post by tc on May 7, 2022 18:26:05 GMT -5
That looked like one hungry horse...or is it hangry?
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ziggy
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Post by ziggy on May 7, 2022 18:34:00 GMT -5
One hell of a ride!
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Post by spanky126 on May 7, 2022 18:41:37 GMT -5
You can't tell me that winner was not on SOMETHING. He tried to eat the pony! That horse is the Mike Tyson of horses!
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Post by mysaladdays on May 8, 2022 0:37:30 GMT -5
I should have mentioned that Rich Strike is also a homebred. I never finished my handicapping because he got it the gate so late. So if you you just put the 5 homebreds over the 3 lowest odds horses in the race(who horesplayers call The Favorites) (Epicenter, Zandon, Taiba) , you'd have the trifecta.  |
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Post by mattcoll on May 8, 2022 8:29:04 GMT -5
Homebred? How about inbred? Has their ever been a derby winner with the lines that close?
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Post by cherokeescot on May 8, 2022 8:40:36 GMT -5
Calumet Farm would have been delighted if this year’s Derby winner had been a home bred 😜
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jacckk8
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Post by jacckk8 on May 8, 2022 21:35:52 GMT -5
Great comment here.
“The Sport of Kings. Ha!” wrote Joe Drape in the New York Times.
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ozzy
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Post by ozzy on May 8, 2022 22:40:58 GMT -5
I’m going to learn how to use All in these big races when having a strong opinion. I was certain 2 of Epicenter, Zandon, or Cyberknife find spots in the trifecta. Had I used 3x2xAll (17) on a $.50 tri I believe that’s $51. Play All with those 3 in all 3 spots would have cost $153 yet paid nearly $7,500. I know this result was super inflated with the winner on top but I’ve cost myself before with my reluctance to use the All button.
2005 Preakness I was all in on Afleet Alex to win and thought Giacomo would be 2nd or 3rd. I did key AA on top and played tris with Giacomo in 2nd and 3rd over all but 2 horses - of course leaving out Scrappy T and missing the $872 triple.
Similar opinion in 2013 Derby as felt Orb was the most likely winner but also hedged with Revolutionary. That time I did use All but only under those 2 in the third spot. Didn’t back it up to split those 2, Golden Soul hits and the tri pays almost $3,400 for a $1.
Remind me of that lesson next time someone please!
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Post by mysaladdays on May 9, 2022 3:32:36 GMT -5
Love your handle! Salad days? Thanks for your well thought out opinion on the KD. I may just bet whomever the guy with rolled up sleeves and a rolled up paper takes. Steve Korneki! If Bobby Flay's horse wins all chefs should do a shot! Thank you! Nobody has ever asked about it before. Why do they call it salad days? The term the salad days refers to the periods of a person's youth when life was without worry. The phrase originated from the play Antony and Cleopatra by Shakespeare, which includes the line "They were my salad days, when I was green in judgement." |
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Post by mysaladdays on May 9, 2022 3:51:39 GMT -5
Calumet Farm would have been delighted if this year’s Derby winner had been a home bred 😜 My understanding: Equibase: "This horse has not been sold via public auction." I was under impression that Calumet was racing him themselves and then Red TR Racing claimed him out from under them for $30K. So to me, this is still a homebred, went to the racetrack by the breeders and then got claimed? He was not bred to sell originally right? |
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Post by mysaladdays on May 9, 2022 4:04:09 GMT -5
Take heart. Thinks "may" get better. I barely invest in US racing with my betting dollars anymore. However, I do keep track of the horses who are racing Lasix-Free. The Derby is lasix free. So are all of the big races overseas. SOMEBODY shoujld ask Pletcher and Cox what's with the lasix "every other race?" (i.e. cyberknife) Non sanctioned races they are getting it. Bettors want transparency. Why are some getting it and not others? Are they bleeders? Between this stuff and the veterinarian list stuff, this is getting ridiculous. Besides, is anyone at all in favor of sending bleeders to the breeding shed? FWIW these horses are lasix-free (never received it) but I had to go back over my original PPs for the prep races to get it. I think I got it right though. Here are the ones who were lasix free for every race: Rich Strike Lasix Free - WINNER Crown Pride lasix free Summer is Tomorrow lasix free Classic Causeway Lasix Free Messier Lasix Free EpicenterLasix free - PLACE Zandon LASIX free - SHOW White Abarrio Lasix free Tiz The Bomb Lasix free Simplification Lasix free FOURTH Smile HappyLasix free Barber Road Lasix free The other 7 have been getting lasix as part of their program |
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chuckster1968
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Post by chuckster1968 on May 9, 2022 4:24:06 GMT -5
I had the 4 horses behind him and my pick to win the race was the 8 Charge It and used Tiz the Bomb as an extra bet as well because if you notice alot of TP horses hold their form well coming over to Keeneland and Churchill. Did I expect that horse to win it from that post......as Jonathon Kinchen replied on America's Best Racing, if you were to run that race again with the same field again, the horse would not hit the board. However,...................... the pedigree is nice.... Keen Ice out of Curling, Sovereign winner Canada on the dam side......Keen Ice won the Travers and ran second to Pharoah in the Haskell..and looking back at Baffert and all his lies...who is to say Pharoah was not doped up as well. I could not be happier for Eric Reed..if you are degenerate gambler than those hanging around a track all day on a Sat. in late winter early spring know about Eric Reed and Turfway Park and the lower claiming races at Churchill Downs on a late card. The only way you could bet the horse to me was a chance on the pedigree and the cheap maiden score..The peculiar nature of the way they gave up on the horse after it did know running on the turf attempt and immediately dropped in for the tag. Hmm...The race itself, super fantastic ride, everyone talks about Borel and Mine that Bird which was gutsy because it was the rail but it was sloppy that day and horses were tiring. The ride Sonny Leon gave was pure jockey which makes you appreciate these guys..... he had to maneuvre in all that traffic in the stretch and the horse was pulling away when he hit the wire. I know, the horse will want 1 1/2 and the Preakness distance could be too short although with Early Voting, the pace will not be hot like Sat. Funny, how a couple of horses decided to go all out on the front end this year......yet under Baffert horses the last couple of years ............. Finally, a closer but is it me or does Churchill inside bias change late in the early day because all of a sudden the inside of the track seem to bode well for horses to gain ground. Sonny Leon.......follow him sometimes at Beltara, kid rides well at MVR and even will go up to Mountaineer in the summer for mounts. Great to see.
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Post by spanky126 on May 9, 2022 6:55:32 GMT -5
You got it Mr Salad Days! I put a sticky note on the fridge to remind you next year! ;>)
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shoes
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Post by shoes on May 9, 2022 7:00:31 GMT -5
We had a very hot pace, just a few 100ths of a second off of the pace in Orb's Derby (for the first half mile). This absolutely set it up for a closer, and Rich Strike IS a confirmed closer. I think his last race Bris late pace number was 3rd (or 4th) best in the field.
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ziggy
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Post by ziggy on May 9, 2022 8:43:01 GMT -5
The reason I played the longest shot I ever hit was because the favorite wasn't going to have his way early. Two horses looked faster than him early. Looking further into the race if he beat those he had at least two who were going to press him. Pace wise the horse running late was going to win and was 79-1 in an 8-9 horse field.
I saw the late foot and 2 good 5f workouts, comments suggesting he picked up his feet late so Rich Strike was interesting in that the situation of the Derby mirrored that pick. The Derby was just too much speed. Speed figures are worthless in races like that. I was kicking myself for not throwing a few bucks at him to win. It was last minute that I caught on to 'hey he'll be running late' why not play him. Then I saw he fit my zip code and thought let's get really lucky. I had a tri too 21 15 7. Kept going back to that 59 3/5 b work over the track, damn I should have played him but post 21. I just waffled and it was to0 late to put in that win bet when I thought of Mary Wiley winning at 79-1 under much the same circumstances. High odds running late, speed not holding on to win, the horse had a chance but everything has to go his way. Post 21 though .... but then how is he ONLY 80-1 in the race. I got that with way fewer horses back in the day. Somebody must have liked this horse. Damn hindsight. $2 to win on 21 @ 80-1 should have happened.
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grommet
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Post by grommet on May 9, 2022 9:10:26 GMT -5
Ozzy, one of my friends uses the same strategy that you mentioned. This year he keyed Epicenter, Taiba with ALL on three trifecta tickets (using ALL in slots 1,2,3). He of course regrets not using Zandon in place of Taiba. At your request, I will remind you next year. :0) I should be doing the same but have to admit I rarely press the ALL button even on Derby Day when I should be throwing caution to the wind.
Chuckster, I'm with you that Churchill tends to have a big rail bias on a muddy track (other than Mine That Bird - exhibit A, the final race on last Friday's Oaks card when Street Jam rode the golden rail to a win; exhibit B, the 2017 Derby exacta of Always Dreaming and Lookin at Lee). I've never noticed a CD rail bias on a dry track before, but Rich Strike sure looked like he was on a moving walkway while the others were not.
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shoes
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Post by shoes on May 9, 2022 9:58:14 GMT -5
Not sure about any rail bias on Derby day. It looked to me in the earlier dirt races that the preferred finish down the stretch was more toward the middle of the track and that a few horses attempting to close on the rail struggled a bit. Completely different than that one weekend , can't remember if it was Super Saver or Mine That Bird's year when multiple horses closed hard on the rail from Thursday on.
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shoes
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Post by shoes on May 9, 2022 9:58:56 GMT -5
duplicate deleted.
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Post by cherokeescot on May 9, 2022 11:33:43 GMT -5
Calumet Farm would have been delighted if this year’s Derby winner had been a home bred 😜 My understanding: Equibase: "This horse has not been sold via public auction." I was under impression that Calumet was racing him themselves and then Red TR Racing claimed him out from under them for $30K. So to me, this is still a homebred, went to the racetrack by the breeders and then got claimed? He was not bred to sell originally right? I have always perceived a homebred to be a horse bred by its current owner but I could be wrong . What do other folks on the board think ? www1.drf.com/help/help_glossary.html |
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1hooper
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Post by 1hooper on May 9, 2022 11:57:56 GMT -5
The Derby winner is not a homebred.
Calumet did have a homebred in the race Happy Jack.
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