White Abbario and final fractions

[nolazag]

I'm having a tough time figuring what to do with this guy. Has good tactical speed and got a nice fwd move in his last. Fast enough to win, especially with a small fwd move. I suspect he will be an overlay and offer some value in the exotics. My main concern is the slow final 3f of the FLA derby. For those who track final fractions, can you think of previous derby entrants who performed well despite slowish ffs in their last prep?

[ozzy]

I will tell you this, he certainly looks the part schooling today. Still Saffie in KY, or outside of FL or NJ isn’t the most profitable bet

[Badactor]

Nolazag is in the house... I'm loving it!

[cindyloujazz]

In answer to your question on slow final fractions, Giacomo won.

[Badactor]

Hi Cindy... It's really nice to see you here.

[ozzy]

And isn’t the final fraction theory the final 3/8 on under :38? I think Jennie Rees usually writes about it or at least used to…

[nolazag]

Thanks for the welcome back, Dell--I was inspired by the Croix Boy sighting!

Ozzy--I think Rees and others put the cutoff at 38. I don't take this as a hard and fast rule, but both WA and Charge It came home in 39.4. Way slower than the other major preps, except the Arky Derby. Maybe I will check previous Fla Derbys for comparison.

[oriolegirl]

Yeah Ozzy, something like that. I was looking at final 1/8 times. By any measure, White Abarrio's closing times were bad. Plus he drifted a bit. A bit of a concern, but Im locked in at 12-1, so I'm not worried. I think he'll be closer to 8-1.
On the other hand, my other guy, Mo Donnegal, who has been moving up my chart steadily, has great closing fractions. If Irad can work out a decent trip from the 1 post, he'll be flying, plus I think he'll get plenty of pace to close into. I have him locked in at
14-1.
I'll be playing those two mostly around at least 8 others.

Good Luck
Steve

[cherokeescot]

I would really like White Abarrio to win but I’m pretty sure history is against him - as far as I am aware no trainer with a man bun has won the Kentucky Derby

[nolazag]

Thanks for the feedback, everyone. In case anyone is interested, a quick review shows pretty significant gap between WA’s final 3f and most other recent Fla Derby winners. Think I will leave this guy out:


White Abbario:39.4.

Known Agenda: 36.4.

Tiz the Law: 38.

Maximum Security: 36.

Audible: 37.2.

Always Dreaming: 36.3

Nyquist: 37.4

Materiality: 39.4

Constitution: 37.0

Orb: 37.3

Take Charge Indy: 36.4.

Dialed In: 37.0.

Ice Box: 37.0.

[tc]

May 5, 2022 21:27:33 GMT -5 cherokeescot said:

I would really like White Abarrio to win but I’m pretty sure history is against him - as far as I am aware no trainer with a man bun has won the Kentucky Derby

hair envy? 

[mysaladdays]

May 5, 2022 20:36:18 GMT -5 ozzy said:

And isn’t the final fraction theory the final 3/8 on under :38? I think Jennie Rees usually writes about it or at least used to…

I use final 3/8, Final Q, and final 1/8 as PART of my handicapping.  I think final 3/8 is less granular though so I don't go by that as much.  I also lower it to 37.8 for 1-1/8 to win a G1.    

But in a 20 horse field, I think to myself: That final times will do you no good if you can't move your arse, in, out, around- at a moment's notice, and be tractable enough to do so when jockey signals,  when behind a column of horses who won't let you thru, or who block you or you need to thread the needle or make a quick duck to the rail  without actually LOSING any momentum. 

They aren't running in straight lines out of the gate like quarterhorses.

I do think WA is a "galloper" type, if you like those. I watch his workouts and his head barely moves up and down, he is in a zone and not a care in the world, big body benz guy. But not sure he is capable of making a fancy move at a moment's notice with any kind of turn of foot though?

ANyway, that's my take on him and it's not scientific or numerical.