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Post by tenfurlongs on Jul 26, 2021 13:33:12 GMT -5
Tuesday July 27th
The going is now HEAVY, which changes all calculations and has led to many scratches.
R1 (8:50am EDT)- 1m2f Chesterfield Cup Handicap (Class 2) (4yo+)
Field of 18. Handicapping puzzle to figure out which ones want ten furlongs, soft ground, and are all in to get a victory/placing today. 7- Cockalorum (10-1) 6yo is a head shy of being 3-for-3 this season, just missed by a head in a similar big $$ handicap last time at York. Picks up a few pounds, but is in career form and 10F/soft is right in his wheelhouse. 9- Lucander (15-1) 4yo was five lengths behind Cockalorum most recently, but that was on firmer ground, and he seems to really thrive on soft. Should be all in today, then cycle around to the Cambridgeshire H. at Newmarket in the fall. I really like 14- Migration (7-1) and William Buick takes the mount today. Lightly-raced 5yo missed all of 2020, but was improving quickly at the end of his 2019 campaign. His reappearance going a mile at Salisbury in June was strictly a tune-up, but he ran well with a troubled trip and got good numbers. Needs to step up once more today, but seems poised for a big effort.
EX- 7,9,14/2,5,7,9,14,16 Result: 14,11,7 Migration ($5.80) went from last to first inside the final furlong over the deep going, winning easily in the end.
R3 (10:00am EDT)- 7f Lennox Stakes (Group 2) (Class 1) (3yo+)
Seven furlong specialists aged 3up don't get Group I respect in England/Ireland, so this is the top-level for them (only five GIIs in GB, one in IRE; this is the first of the season in GB). I've been following 6- Pogo (20-1) for two seasons now, and I think he can run a big race for Charlie Hills/Kieran Shoemark. He ended last season with a fine second behind 3- Happy Power (12-1) over soft ground going 7F. Won seasonal debut, then ran far behind Palace Pier in a pair of GIs at a mile, although he was only beaten by five at Royal Ascot, and finished ahead of some good ones. Clearly pointed towards this race, needs his best effort but can win this if the top three stub their hooves. 9- Safe Voyage (5-1) is a 7F beast, with nine turf wins at the distance. 8yo needs to pick his spots these days, but win at Chester says he's rounding into best form, ignore him at your peril. 10- Space Blues (3-1) is a deserving favorite, winning four in a row last summer at the trip, including this race by two lengths, then shipped to KSA in February to take their Sprint Cup. Tried the 6F Dubai GI sprint, but that's just a bit sharp for him, still only beaten by four. Wouldn't want anymore rain to fall, is my only concern. 7F record is 8/6-2-0, enough said.
EX- 9,10/3,5,9,10,12 Result: 5,12,3 Kinross ($16.70) got his neck in front at the wire just ahead of Creative Force, Happy Power and Space Blues. Safe Voyage showed little, finished last.
R4 (10:35am EDT)- 2m Goodwood Cup Stakes (Group 1) (British Champions Series) (Class 1) (3yo+)
This is where we find out if 10- Stradivarius (even) is still hickory. They were very sporting with him last season, running in shorter races and shipping to France twice, including a misfire in the Arc. Won seasonal debut in workmanlike fashion, then had a troubled trip at Royal Ascot, although the winner was the best that day. Bids to win this for fifth year in a row. Draws the one-hole, so Frankie will need to figure out positioning, especially with a target on his back. Seems like 6- Santiago (12-1) should have a say in this. May turn out to be a St. Leger horse (14F) at best, but was third in this last season as a 3yo, ran second to 9- Spanish Mission (9-2) in the Yorkshire Cup (GII) two back. Can't imagine why Ryan Moore chose Serpentine over this one, although I suspect he would get the mount if Serpentine scratches due to soft ground. Also, don't overlook 3- Emperor of the Sun (20-1) for O'Brien the Youngest, he's markedly improved as a 4yo, handles soft ground, and may be the best Galileo in this. 11- Trueshan (5-1) is taking lots of early money, but I can't support him in here. He's run exactly one race that could win this, over bottomless ground at Ascot that everyone else hated. No thanks.
EX- 6/3,8 Result: 11,2,8 Trueshan ($3.60) got the deep ground he covets and ran straight as a string in the stretch under Hollie Doyle, he can go much farther, I'd think.
R5 (11:10am EDT)- 5f Handicap (Class 2) (4yo+ 0-105)
Field of 17 are entered. 2- Jabbarockie (12-1) is very consistent, still winning classy handicaps as an 8yo. 5F specialist usually makes the front, handles soft ground, and the presence of Mr. Buick in the saddle is duly noted. 8- King of Stars (9-2) took a while to put it all together, 4yo has been progressive in six starts this year. Mick Appleby reaches out to Jamie Doyle for the ride, handled soft going over in IRE when he was in the Joseph O'Brien barn. Spreading wide underneath in this competitive event.
EX- 8/7,9,17 Result: 11,1,3 Hollie Doyle comes right back with Lord Riddiford (7-1) which was a force on the AW this past winter, but didn't show much in recent turf starts.
R7 (12:20pm EDT)- 1m Fillies' Handicap (Class 3) (3yo+ 0-95)
3- Dalanijujo (6-1) has run a couple of crackers in eleven starts, including a close-up sixth in the Kensington Palace S. at Royal Ascot last month. Question mark is soft ground. Did she hate the ground at Pontefract, or did everyone stop riding once Lights On was ten lengths clear? If the trainer Channon scratches, we'll know the answer, I figure. 7- Urban Violet (8-1) went into my stable watch after her seasonal debut on soft going, winning by 8+ after a slow start and troubled trip. Also trained by Mick Channon. Slowly cycling back to a top effort, the ground will suit and the price may hold. Difficult race to figure, could easily miss the mark in here.
EX- 7/6
R8 (12:50pm EDT)- 6f EBF Fillies' Handicap (Class 3) (3yo+ 0-95)
3- Caroline Dale (7-1) ran two blinders at Ascot as a 2yo, but season ended early in August. Ran a good second last time over 5F on soft, now stretches out and figures to go as fast and as far as she can. 7- Lovely Breeze (4-1) is the Best Bet of the day. 3yo has been strongly progressive this term, handles soft ground, can turn the tables on 4- Gellhorn (7-2) getting seven pounds this time around.
EX- 7/4,6,8
Good luck with your wagers!
TW
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Post by tenfurlongs on Jul 27, 2021 8:37:35 GMT -5
Stradivarius, and now Spanish Mission, are both scratches from the Goodwood Cup. Too bad. Still don't like Trueshan, although things keep going his way. Hollie wouldn't mind a Group I, I guess  . TW |
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Post by spiderjohn on Jul 29, 2021 10:12:09 GMT -5
Wondering who might be playing.....has been profitable my way, especially to day with Ottoman Emperor and that exacta
Unfortunately in the 4th I played a 1-2/1-2-3-4 tri pw---got a good price with 2 but no 6 2nd. 6 only had one bad race(in a big running) and so easy to use ALL underneath in a 6-runner field---ouch!
on to toga!
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Post by tenfurlongs on Jul 29, 2021 10:59:24 GMT -5
Wondering who might be playing.....has been profitable my way, especially to day with Ottoman Emperor and that exacta Unfortunately in the 4th I played a 1-2/1-2-3-4 tri pw---got a good price with 2 but no 6 2nd. 6 only had one bad race(in a big running) and so easy to use ALL underneath in a 6-runner field---ouch! on to toga! That was a nice exacta with Ottoman spider. I wondered why Johnny Murtagh had shipped that one over to face some tough company, but he was much the best. Lady Bowthorpe in the Nassau Stakes was sensational, first time going 10F. She's very honest and tries every time, nearly beat Palace Pier in May. I got blanked today but the racing was fantastic. The fifth race triple with 6-1, 92-1, and 77-1 paid $10,802.60 for a buck! TW |
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Post by spiderjohn on Jul 30, 2021 7:25:45 GMT -5
Going to lightly play the first four today—4th is a very hot classy sprint featuring a pair of champions, BATTAASH and GLASS SLIPPER, and they could both lose to a couple of others entered
Going to start with a win play on #11 PLATFORM NINETEEN
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Post by tenfurlongs on Jul 30, 2021 7:46:43 GMT -5
GOO Friday
R1 (8:50am EDT)- 2m4½f Goodwood Handicap (Class 2) (3yo+ 0-105)
2- The Grand Visir (7-1) picks up Wm. Buick to ride, is in solid form, 4th in this last season; Calling the Wind (8-1) was second against similar company at Royal Ascot, finishing just ahead of The Grand Visir.
EXBOX- 2,6,15,20 Result: 6,1,4,15 Calling the Wind ($21.00) ran a big race at a nice price, always looked like the winner once they turned in, with his rider the last to ask. Thought I had a nice exacta score but Green Book made the front a bit early and just couldn't see out the trip, getting beat a head and a neck for second.
TW
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Post by spiderjohn on Jul 30, 2021 8:08:10 GMT -5
Very interesting race to start the day—21furlongs flag/tape start was a do-over after last year’s winner refused to run—didn’t run second time either. Liked the winner #6 but played #11, who ran well late for a decent 5th
Keeping it simple in the 2nd tri pw the #1 chalk(Haggas/Crowley and easily beat better last out) over 2-5-7/2-4-5-6-7 and xboxing 1-2-5-7 in case #1 loses
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Post by tenfurlongs on Jul 30, 2021 8:13:47 GMT -5
R2 (9:25am EDT)- 1m Bonhams Thoroughbred Stakes (Group 3) (Class 1) (3yo)
1- Baaeed (4-5) is undefeated in three starts, won the Henry Cecil S. in last by open lengths like there is much more in the tank, new 3yo star on the scene? 4- Perotto (10-1) ran a big race in the Britannia S. at Royal Ascot, then finished mid-division in the Bunbury Cup last time, worth a stab stretching out to a mile again for Tregoning/Buick.
EX- 1,4/1,3,4,5,6 Result: 1,2,7 Baaeed (1-5) indeed looks like a superstar, Jim Crowley never even touched him, looking around for danger where there was none, hand-ridden through the finish. If I'm John Gosden and Palace Pier, I'm a little bit nervous after seeing that.
TW
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Post by tenfurlongs on Jul 30, 2021 8:41:12 GMT -5
R4 (10:35am EDT)- 5f King George Qatar Stakes (Group 2) (Class 1) (3yo+)
The racing fan in me wants 3- Battaash (7-5) to win this for the fifth year in a row. The bettor in me thinks he may be slowing down just a bit as a 7yo, so I'll put three others in a box with him and if he runs third or worse, I can get paid.
EXBOX- 2,3,10,11
TW
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Post by tenfurlongs on Jul 30, 2021 8:46:47 GMT -5
Very interesting race to start the day—21furlongs flag/tape start was a do-over after last year’s winner refused to run—didn’t run second time either. Liked the winner #6 but played #11, who ran well late for a decent 5th Keeping it simple in the 2nd tri pw the #1 chalk(Haggas/Crowley and easily beat better last out) over 2-5-7/2-4-5-6-7 and xboxing 1-2-5-7 in case #1 loses Not a bad triple considering it had a 1-5 shot on top. Nothing wrong with simple. TW |
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Post by spiderjohn on Jul 30, 2021 9:21:17 GMT -5
Sorry to be late and redboard the 3rd exacta off of a 5-7-10-11-15 box
All good so far with a very interesting race next
Shotgunning exacta pw of 2-3-9-11-13/-1-2-3-5-9-11-13 hoping for another good hit then on to a nice day with Saratoga
Good luck everyone!
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Post by tenfurlongs on Jul 30, 2021 12:23:03 GMT -5
Sorry to be late and redboard the 3rd exacta off of a 5-7-10-11-15 box All good so far with a very interesting race next Shotgunning exacta pw of 2-3-9-11-13/-1-2-3-5-9-11-13 hoping for another good hit then on to a nice day with Saratoga Good luck everyone! Nice exacta hits spider. The third race paid really well considering those seemed to be the two logical in-form alternatives to the heavy favorite. The fourth race came back light, I thought, I guess all the late money was for Dragon Symbol. My redboard was in the finale. I've been following The Queen's 1- Wink of an Eye ($6.00) since his eyecatching, fast-closing second over the Goodwood course in May. He's now won four straight with a nice off-the-pace score today. I couldn't find much else to use behind him, so I picked the better of the two Mark Johnston-trained horses for second along with the second favorite, and all for third in triples. 2-1, 15-1, 6-1. Amazingly, the triple came back $304.00 for a buck, so I'm back in the black. Heading up to the Spa tomorrow to see Belmont Stakes winner Essential Quality in person, so won't be giving any of it back with sloppy/off the turf today. Good luck. TW |
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Post by tenfurlongs on Jul 31, 2021 7:20:06 GMT -5
Final day at Glorious Goodwood.
Saturday R1-
EX- 8,11/1,4,8,11
R2 (8:55am EDT)- 6f Stewards' Sprint Handicap (Consolation Race For The Stewards' Cup) (Class 2) (3yo+)
Twenty-five horses facing the starter. 1- First Folio (5-1) was an unremarkable 2yo in France, but since being gelded and moving to the Ferguson barn he is like a new animal. Two wins in three starts this season, should handle the ground and can improve once more today. 6- Bickerstaffe (10-1) is another lightly-raced 3yo, finished behind First Folio at York, then ran a big race to win by two over soft ground at Ascot earlier in the month. 7- Mr. Wagyu (15-1) is a very consistent type running against slightly lesser competition, makes occasional forays into top-level handicaps, any of his last three races would make him a contender in here. 23- Music Society (8-1) has a similar profile as Mr. Wagyu, fills out the exacta more often than topping it, can't be dismissed on current form.
EXBOX- 1,6,7,23 Result: 7,20,11,23 Mr. Wagyu ($23.40) led from flagfall to finish and made it look easy, winning off by open lengths. Couldn't get any of my others home to complete the exacta. 64-1 shot was second, that should be a big payout ($455.60 !) for a buck.
TW
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Post by tenfurlongs on Jul 31, 2021 7:50:59 GMT -5
R3 (9:30am EDT)- 1m6f Summer Handicap (Class 2) (3yo+)
Twelve runners going the St. Leger distance over soft ground. Wide open race, you could make a case for most of these. 10- Rhythmic Intent (12-1) wants soft going and gets it, stretches out from a good second at Sandown, presence of Jim Crowley in the saddle is noted. 14- Prince Alex (8-1) is another who appreciates give to the ground, didn't get it at Newmarket in last and finished towards the rear. Ran up four wins in a row last season on soft going, only has eleven career starts (11/5-1-0) and could improve yet again today. Spreading wide underneath these two.
EX- 10,14/1,2,4,7,8,9,10,14 Result: 14,7,8 Exacta $47.60 Prince Alex ($16.40) slogged home after a very long stretch battle, didn't think he was going to hang on. Urban Artist went off favored under Oisin Murphy, nearly got there in the end. Her performance shines a favorable light on Tribal Craft in the next race.
TW
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Post by spiderjohn on Jul 31, 2021 8:16:09 GMT -5
nice tri to turn the day around, 10f----a difference maker
I can't warm up to anything today over there...
Maybe #8 in the 4th, coupled with the strong #1
And #15 FRESH in the 5th
been a consistently good week for me so far--hoping not to blow it all back today---and as mentioned, not in love with anything
like the start to toga card---middle loses me--hopefully i can sit on my hands and find other entertainment
good luck!
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Post by tenfurlongs on Jul 31, 2021 8:54:51 GMT -5
I'm with you in the fourth at Goodwood, spider. Hard to go past the #1 which gets her ground, but maybe we can get a bit of a price for second.
R4 (10:05am EDT)- 1m6f Lillie Langtry Stakes (Group 2) (Fillies & Mares) (Class 1) (3yo+)
1- Wonderful Tonight (4-5) has run three races in a row that no one else in here can match. She gets her ground today, draws outside for Buick, just needs to run back to previous efforts to win this. On the other hand, she's only had nine starts and this is her second outing this year, scary thing is she could run even better! Will use 8- Tribal Craft (12-1) underneath, her form was franked by Urban Artist in the last race, and 3- Believe in Love (8-1) which loves this distance, and soft going.
TRI- 1/3,8/All Result: 1,8,2 Triple $40.70 Wonderful Tonight ($3.20) was quite rank for the first half of the race, but eventually settled as they turned in and as soon as she saw daylight Buick couldn't hold her anymore. Won the race by a comfortable margin over Tribal Craft which went very well in defeat, but needs to switch off early in her races.
TW
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Post by tenfurlongs on Jul 31, 2021 9:37:41 GMT -5
R5 (10:40am EDT)- 6f Stewards' Cup (Heritage Handicap) (Class 2) (3yo+)
25 runners going to post, competing for a purse of $309,000. 15- Fresh (7-1) 4yo won seasonal turf debut going 6F over soft ground, then ran a neck second to Rohaan in the Wokingham S. at Royal Ascot, also over soft going. 16- Chiefofchiefs (12-1) was fourth in the Wokingham S., wants soft ground for his best, and needs his best today.
EX- 15,16/4,6,9,14,15,16,17,24 Result: 9,14,21 Commanche Falls (8-1) just keeps winning, appeared to prefer firmer ground on paper but made a late move to get to the line first over 45-1 Gulliver, which desperately wants soft ground and was fifth in the Wokingham S. at Royal Ascot. Exacta should be tasty. {edit: $1 exacta = $1307.30 !!!}
TW
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Post by spiderjohn on Jul 31, 2021 9:51:56 GMT -5
2nd to ROHAAN didn’t hold up in the 5th—winner was logical
4th was sweet and a nice beginning towards toga
Good luck!
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Post by tenfurlongs on Jul 31, 2021 10:09:57 GMT -5
The deluge of rain early in the week tilted the tables in favor of soft ground specialists, something that doesn't always happen in mid-summer in the UK. Overall an exciting week of racing, with Baaeed coming to the forefront as a 3yo miler to watch, Stradivarius bailing out waiting for firmer ground, and the retirement of the great sprinter Battaash after his poor showing in the King George. From a wagering standpoint, $257 in//$431 out, most of it from a nice triple on Friday. Final big race meet of the summer is at York from Aug. 18-21.
TW
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