1hooper
UpInClass Steward
Posts: 6,779
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Post by 1hooper on May 30, 2021 8:18:41 GMT -5
The Oaks and Derby to be run on Friday and Saturday this week. Good article to prep.
An Aiden O'Brien stable update for this week.
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Post by spiderjohn on May 30, 2021 11:20:53 GMT -5
Perfect morning introduction to the fri/sat Belmont cards
Seems a lot of last year’s big hitters have had a recent prep....
Bring it on!
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Post by spiderjohn on Jun 2, 2021 10:41:09 GMT -5
not overly excited about the Epsom cards this weekend---O'Brien looks pretty strong in the Oaks and Derby(large field!)
great lead in to Belmont though........
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Post by tenfurlongs on Jun 2, 2021 20:01:41 GMT -5
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Post by spiderjohn on Jun 3, 2021 18:48:24 GMT -5
couldnt warm up to the Epsom cards, but playing the big race Saturday. Like Appleby/Buick #4 HURRICANE LANE on top for Godolphin, with O’Brien’s favorite #2 BOLSHOI BALLET and #7 MOHAAFETH and 1-5-11 underneath. 4 win Tri key 4/1-2-5-7-11
3rd Diomed G3 Like the chalks #2 CENTURY DREAM and #9 MAXIMAL on top, with 1-3 underneath. 9 win Tri pw 2-9/1-2-3-9/1-2-3-9
Good luck!
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Post by mysaladdays on Jun 4, 2021 5:51:06 GMT -5
couldnt warm up to the Epsom cards, but playing the big race Saturday. Like Appleby/Buick #4 HURRICANE LANE on top for Godolphin, with O’Brien’s favorite #2 BOLSHOI BALLET and #7 MOHAAFETH and 1-5-11 underneath. I like the same horses, esp. Mohaafeth. I will add Third Realm Gear Up and Youth Spirit are good longshots at HUGE odds. GL!
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Post by tenfurlongs on Jun 4, 2021 6:07:02 GMT -5
Oaks Day Friday-
Some light rain across the area this morning but the course should retain its "GOOD" rating.
EPS R1 (9:00am EDT)- 6f Woodcote EBF Stakes (Conditions Race) (GBB Race) (Class 2) (2yo)
Despite his modest pedigree #2- Dairerin (4-1) has run the best of this lot in both of his two starts over soft going. If he doesn't fire #9- Sienna Bonnie (6-1) has shown speed and quality in her three races including an okay stakes try last time at York. Stretches out a furlong today.
EX- 2,9/2,4,7,9,10
EPS R2 (9:35am EDT)- 1m½f Handicap (Class 2) (4yo+ 0-105)
Older horses going 1 1/16 mi. which is a rarely run distance in Europe. #4- Irish Admiral (5-2) has two AW wins and two turf thirds in four starts, ran well at York in latest and turnback in distance should only help. #7- Mostawaa (6-1) has run as we as you could without winning in three tries as a 5yo, a bit worried that he's a hanger but the price may compensate.
EX- 4,7/1,3,4,6,7
EPS R3 (10:10am EDT)- 1m4f Coronation Cup (Group 1) (British Champions Series) (Class 1) (4yo+) (7-Alpinista is a non-runner)
So I get that Al Aasy and the full-brothers Japan and Mogul have the best top-level form, but I'm going for a price play in this Group I. #5- Pyledriver (10-1) has surprised me before and can run a big race, he's only had eleven starts and may still have a bit more to him. #6- Albaflora (15-1) has been progressive through six starts, crushed a Listed field at Ascot upon reappearance. 4yo filly has a lot to prove but might have some talent left unexposed. Frankie rides so the price certainly won't hold.
EX- 5,6/ALL
more to follow...
TW
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Post by tenfurlongs on Jun 4, 2021 6:35:18 GMT -5
EPS R4 (10:45am EDT)- 1m2f Handicap (Class 2) (4yo+)
#2- Victory Chime (5-1) likes to make all the pace, and has an admirable record at the distance (12/6-0-3) and over the course (two-for-two). #10- Data Protection (8-1) is also fond of Epsom, gets a new rider today in young David Egan (he of Mishriff/Saudi Cup fame) and should also be placed prominently in the field.
EX- 2,10/2,3,7,8,10
EPS R5 (11:30am EDT)- 1m4f Epsom Oaks (Group 1) (British Champions Series) (Fillies) (Class 1) (3yo)
Will try to beat the O'Brien mob with fillies that ran one/two in the Cheshire Oaks last out. #2- Dubai Fountain (12-1) has done little wrong in eight starts, wasn't far behind top three in Fillies Mile last fall at Newmarket, ignore trainer Johnston at your peril. #14- Zeyaadah (6-1) seems to be the buzz horse this morning, is a length away from being perfect in four starts, handles all ground, has PP1 and can be slow away from the gate, just needs to get a clean start and find room for a run with three to go.
EX- 2,14/2,4,6,7,10,14
EPS R6 (12:10pm EDT)- 7f Surrey Stakes (Listed Race) (Class 1) (3yo) (3- Mystery Smiles and 5- Run To Freedom are non-runners)
Really like #2- Mehmento (3-1) and Hollie Doyle. Didn't fire in the French Guineas (soft ground?), looks to get back on track today. Repeat of his Greenham S. (GIII) second could take this. #7- Meu Amor (7-2) hasn't run a bad one, maybe the switch to Tom Marquand (isn't he Hollie's fiancee?!) can move her up.
EX- 2,7/1,2,7
EPS R7 (12:40pm EDT)- 7f Handicap (Class 2) (3yo+ 0-100) (12- Ataser is a non-runner)
#8- Arigato (10-1) occasionally runs a big race, even at this level. Likes Epsom, let's hope that second start after the break brings out his bets. #9- Dulas (7-1) looks to be slightly favored in this wide-open affair, has looked like a new animal as a 4yo, the trip suits and the weight he picks up off his last win shouldn't be too much to handle.
EX- 8,9/4,8,9,10,11
Good luck if you play today!
TW
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Post by tenfurlongs on Jun 4, 2021 7:02:48 GMT -5
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1hooper
UpInClass Steward
Posts: 6,779
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Post by 1hooper on Jun 4, 2021 7:42:17 GMT -5
Divinely in Oaks. Double digit odds on a Galileo/O'Brien filly training lights out.
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Post by tenfurlongs on Jun 4, 2021 8:12:09 GMT -5
Oaks Day Friday- Some light rain across the area this morning but the course should retain its "GOOD" rating. EPS R1 (9:00am EDT)- 6f Woodcote EBF Stakes (Conditions Race) (GBB Race) (Class 2) (2yo)Despite his modest pedigree #2- Dairerin (4-1) has run the best of this lot in both of his two starts over soft going. If he doesn't fire #9- Sienna Bonnie (6-1) has shown speed and quality in her three races including an okay stakes try last time at York. Stretches out a furlong today. EX- 2,9/2,4,7,9,10 Result: 8,4,7 Oscula ($15.80) was away sharply just behind Flaming Rib, passed that one heading in and held off the closers. Nice win for recent bug-boy Mark Crehan, backing up his winning form at Brighton, not normally the source for stakes winners. Maybury closed fastest for third, watch him next out.EPS R2 (9:35am EDT)- 1m½f Handicap (Class 2) (4yo+ 0-105)Older horses going 1 1/16 mi. which is a rarely run distance in Europe. #4- Irish Admiral (5-2) has two AW wins and two turf thirds in four starts, ran well at York in latest and turnback in distance should only help. #7- Mostawaa (6-1) has run as we as you could without winning in three tries as a 5yo, a bit worried that he's a hanger but the price may compensate. EX- 4,7/1,3,4,6,7 Result: 9,3,5 Rain continues to fall, course now GOOD-TO-SOFT, and front-runners seemingly have the advantage. Course-specialist Corazon Espinado ($18.40) brings his Epsom record to 9/4-2-1 under Hollie Doyle after running on the AW since the fall. Nice training job by Simon Dow. Irish Admiral always had too much to do, and Mostawaa was away poorly and had no chance. EPS R3 (10:10am EDT)- 1m4f Coronation Cup (Group 1) (British Champions Series) (Class 1) (4yo+) (7-Alpinista is a non-runner) So I get that Al Aasy and the full-brothers Japan and Mogul have the best top-level form, but I'm going for a price play in this Group I. #5- Pyledriver (10-1) has surprised me before and can run a big race, he's only had eleven starts and may still have a bit more to him. #6- Albaflora (15-1) has been progressive through six starts, crushed a Listed field at Ascot upon reappearance. 4yo filly has a lot to prove but might have some talent left unexposed. Frankie rides so the price certainly won't hold. EX- 5,6/ALL Result: 5,1,3 Exacta $45.80 Odds-on favorite Al Aasy looked to have the field measured with two furlongs to go, but Pyledriver ($18.60) wasn't coming back to them and while Al Aasy got his nose ahead once or twice, inside the last 100 yards Pyledriver pushed back in front like he wanted it more. Great GI win for Muir/Grassick and jockey Martin Dwyer!
more to follow... TW
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Post by Badactor on Jun 4, 2021 8:34:50 GMT -5
In the Oaks...
5 Ocean Road (Ire) 40-1 3 F Australia - Love And Laughter (Ire) by Theatrical
3 races, 1w 1p 1s... worth a look @ longshot odds.
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Post by spiderjohn on Jun 4, 2021 9:33:04 GMT -5
Good call on #5 PYLEDRIVER—I expected you to play him. I keyed him over ALL in the tri and was shocked at the generous pay. Was nowhere close in the first two races—not sure in the Oaks—-good luck!
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Post by tenfurlongs on Jun 4, 2021 9:43:38 GMT -5
Good call on #5 PYLEDRIVER—I expected you to play him. I keyed him over ALL in the tri and was shocked at the generous pay. Was nowhere close in the first two races—not sure in the Oaks—-good luck! Thanks Spider. I saw the triple payout, banging my head for not going 5/ALL/ALL at least once. Good hit, you should be set for tomorrow. TW
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Post by tenfurlongs on Jun 4, 2021 10:01:27 GMT -5
EPS R4 (10:45am EDT)- 1m2f Handicap (Class 2) (4yo+)#2- Victory Chime (5-1) likes to make all the pace, and has an admirable record at the distance (12/6-0-3) and over the course (two-for-two). #10- Data Protection (8-1) is also fond of Epsom, gets a new rider today in young David Egan (he of Mishriff/Saudi Cup fame) and should also be placed prominently in the field. EX- 2,10/2,3,7,8,10 Result: 4,2,10 Data Protection dueled on the front end but tired from his early efforts, while Victory Chime seemed to be making the winning move inside the final furlong, but Oisin Murphy arrived on the scene with a well-judged ride on Blue Cup ($9.60) to take down the prize. Data Protection held on for third despite setting sail much too early. EPS R5 (11:30am EDT)- 1m4f Epsom Oaks (Group 1) (British Champions Series) (Fillies) (Class 1) (3yo)Will try to beat the O'Brien mob with fillies that ran one/two in the Cheshire Oaks last out. #2- Dubai Fountain (12-1) has done little wrong in eight starts, wasn't far behind top three in Fillies Mile last fall at Newmarket, ignore trainer Johnston at your peril. #14- Zeyaadah (6-1) seems to be the buzz horse this morning, is a length away from being perfect in four starts, handles all ground, has PP1 and can be slow away from the gate, just needs to get a clean start and find room for a run with three to go. EX- 2,14/2,4,6,7,10,14 Result: 10,4,1 Place $18.40 That was a very impressive win by Snowfall for Aidan O'Brien and Frankie Dettori, winning by 16 lengths! The big win over some talented foes in a GIII at York over similar ground last time should have tipped her hand. Clearly O'Brien got her sorted out over the winter. Mystery Angel actually led them into the last two furlongs, did well to hold on for second. EPS R6 (12:10pm EDT)- 7f Surrey Stakes (Listed Race) (Class 1) (3yo) (3- Mystery Smiles and 5- Run To Freedom are non-runners) Really like #2- Mehmento (3-1) and Hollie Doyle. Didn't fire in the French Guineas (soft ground?), looks to get back on track today. Repeat of his Greenham S. (GIII) second could take this. #7- Meu Amor (7-2) hasn't run a bad one, maybe the switch to Tom Marquand (isn't he Hollie's fiancee?!) can move her up. EX- 2,7/1,2,7 Result: 2,1,7 Exacta $8.80 Mehmento ($3.60) was always traveling like a winner, Hollie Doyle didn't even ask him until close to the finish. Two wins on the day for her. EPS R7 (12:40pm EDT)- 7f Handicap (Class 2) (3yo+ 0-100) (12- Ataser is a non-runner) #8- Arigato (10-1) occasionally runs a big race, even at this level. Likes Epsom, let's hope that second start after the break brings out his bets. #9- Dulas (7-1) looks to be slightly favored in this wide-open affair, has looked like a new animal as a 4yo, the trip suits and the weight he picks up off his last win shouldn't be too much to handle. EX- 8,9/4,8,9,10,11 Result: 11,2,5 3yo gelding Rhoscolyn ($10.20) has really turned the corner this season, winning his third straight over a soft 7F. Probably not a stakes horse but can be a very useful handicapper especially over this distance and ground. Arigato said no thanks and was through early, while Dulas showed interest until the final furlong. That last uphill bit towards the wire can break your spirit.Good luck if you play today! TW Break-even kind of day, but the racing was excellent with a couple of outstanding performances. Looking forward to tomorrow's Derby card. Time to get 'capping! TW
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Post by tenfurlongs on Jun 4, 2021 10:07:45 GMT -5
Here's a great video showing how sloping, winding and cambered Epsom Downs really is. The homestretch really slopes towards the inside rail!
TW
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Post by tenfurlongs on Jun 4, 2021 10:16:08 GMT -5
She may not see out the trip, but no way #4- Mystery Angel should be 33-1 in the Oaks right now! W/P just on general principle.
TW
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Post by Badactor on Jun 4, 2021 10:30:58 GMT -5
"Not a lot you can do now... you just hope you're on the right horse."
Love it!
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Post by tenfurlongs on Jun 4, 2021 10:51:00 GMT -5
She may not see out the trip, but no way #4- Mystery Angel should be 33-1 in the Oaks right now! W/P just on general principle. TW .
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Post by Badactor on Jun 4, 2021 10:51:34 GMT -5
1st: 10 Snowfall (Jpn) $12.80 $4.60 2nd: 4 Mystery Angel (Ire) $18.40 3rd: 1 Divinely (Ire) $12.00 $1.00 EXACTA 10-4 $231.20 $1.00 TRIFECTA 10-4-1 $5,805.00
You guys are good!
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Post by tenfurlongs on Jun 4, 2021 12:20:50 GMT -5
Pyledriver, under Martin Dwyer, wins the Coronation Cup (GI):
Snowfall and Frankie Dettori win the Epsom Oaks (GI):
TW
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Post by tenfurlongs on Jun 5, 2021 7:34:57 GMT -5
EPS R1 (9:00am EDT)- 1m2f Handicap (Class 2) (3yo 0-105)
#2- King Frankel (2-1) hasn't missed the exacta in five turf tries, handles all ground and should fire his best today. #5- Patient Dream (4-1) went on my watch list immediately following his last race, where he blew by the field in the final furlong. Needs to make a forward move but very capable.
EX- 2,5/2,3,5,6
EPS R2 (9:35am EDT)- 1m½f Princess Elizabeth Stakes (Group 3) (Fillies & Mares) (Class 1) (3yo+)
#3- Parent's Prayer (8-1) has run very well in two GIIIs this year without winning, 3yo finale at Naas in IRE was special and points her out here. #9- Statement (4-1) was overmatched in the Guineas last time, just missed to Alcohol Free on seasonal debut.
EX- 3,9/2,3,6,8,9
EPS R3 (10:10am EDT)- 1m½f Diomed Stakes (Group 3) (Class 1) (3yo+)
#1- Bell Rock (6-1) impressed on reappearance at Newmarket, now tries Group company but is respected off seasonal bow. #2- Century Dream (3-1) won this event in 2018 and again last year (at Newbury). Veteran looked lost in GI Lockinge last time, taken to rebound today.
EX- 1,2/1,2,3,6
more to follow...
TW
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Post by tenfurlongs on Jun 5, 2021 7:58:44 GMT -5
EPS R4 (10:45am EDT)- 5f "Dash" Handicap (Heritage Handicap) (Class 2) (3yo+)
16 runners going flat out on a slippery downhill, cambered straightaway, what could go wrong?
EXBOX- 1,7,8,10
EPS R5 (11:30am EDT)- 1m4f Epsom Derby (Group 1) (British Champions Series) (Entire Colts & Fillies) (Class 1) (3yo)
The race that defines a generation. #4- Hurricane Lane (8-1) son of Frankel is perfect in three starts, won the Dante S. (GII) at York like there was more to come. Appleby/Buick/Godolphin. #11- Third Realm (15-1) no way those m/l odds hold. Won the Derby Trial like a pro. Others are more experienced but he has buckets of promise.
EX- 4,11/ALL
EPS R6 (12:15pm EDT)- 1m4f Northern Dancer Handicap (Class 2) (4yo+ 0-105)
#2- The Trader (10-1) is usually there or thereabouts at the wire, may drift up in the odds. #8- Group One Power (7-2) won over course and distance on seasonal reappearance, one to beat.
EX- 2,8/2,5,8,9
EPS R7 (12:50pm EDT)- 6f Handicap (For the Tokyo Trophy) (Class 2) (4yo+ 0-105)
#3- Lexington Dash (6-1) is improving in his 4yo season, looks very good coming into this.
EX- 3/2,4,9
Good luck if you play today!
TW
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Post by tenfurlongs on Jun 5, 2021 8:19:33 GMT -5
EPS R1 (9:00am EDT)- 1m2f Handicap (Class 2) (3yo 0-105)#2- King Frankel (2-1) hasn't missed the exacta in five turf tries, handles all ground and should fire his best today. #5- Patient Dream (4-1) went on my watch list immediately following his last race, where he blew by the field in the final furlong. Needs to make a forward move but very capable. EX- 2,5/2,3,5,6 Result: 9,2,3 Solent Gateway ($64.10) finds that the tenth time is the charm to break his maiden. No way to see that coming. King Frankel closed with a rush to just miss after lagging behind through the early stages. Patient Dream had a nightmare trip trapped along the rail, finding no room for at least an eighth of a mile before getting clear too late, settling for fourth. Have to feel he was best.EPS R2 (9:35am EDT)- 1m½f Princess Elizabeth Stakes (Group 3) (Fillies & Mares) (Class 1) (3yo+)#3- Parent's Prayer (8-1) has run very well in two GIIIs this year without winning, 3yo finale at Naas in IRE was special and points her out here. #9- Statement (4-1) was overmatched in the Guineas last time, just missed to Alcohol Free on seasonal debut. EX- 3,9/2,3,6,8,9 Result: 3,8,9 Exacta $64.00 Parent's Prayer ($10.20) went right to the front and tow-roped the field under Oisin Murphy, who apparently didn't want to get his pants pulled down again like in Race 1 (Patient Dream). 4yo daughter of Kingman has a bright future as a miler. EPS R3 (10:10am EDT)- 1m½f Diomed Stakes (Group 3) (Class 1) (3yo+)#1- Bell Rock (6-1) impressed on reappearance at Newmarket, now tries Group company but is respected off seasonal bow. #2- Century Dream (3-1) won this event in 2018 and again last year (at Newbury). Veteran looked lost in GI Lockinge last time, taken to rebound today. EX- 1,2/1,2,3,6 Result: 6,2,1 8yo Oh This Is Us ($25.70) gets his sixteenth career victory (72/16-12-10) and first Group win, getting up in the last jump to deny Century Dream a three-peat. Neat horse! more to follow... TW
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Post by Badactor on Jun 5, 2021 8:33:47 GMT -5
How'bout a "Board Crasher" in Race 4... #6 Blue De Vega (Ger) 25-1 odds. 8 G Lope De Vega (Ire) - Burning Heights (Ger) by Montjeu (Ire)
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Post by DoctorDisaster on Jun 5, 2021 8:43:08 GMT -5
Nice call on the 2nd TW
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Post by tenfurlongs on Jun 5, 2021 9:40:18 GMT -5
Thanks Doc. You playing Epsom?
TW
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Post by tenfurlongs on Jun 5, 2021 10:01:30 GMT -5
EPS R4 (10:45am EDT)- 5f "Dash" Handicap (Heritage Handicap) (Class 2) (3yo+)16 runners going flat out on a slippery downhill, cambered straightaway, what could go wrong? EXBOX- 1,7,8,10 Result: 17,9,1,10 Mokaatil ($56.10) blasted out of the pack while drifting left but was much the best today. Exacta came back $418.60 ! EPS R5 (11:30am EDT)- 1m4f Epsom Derby (Group 1) (British Champions Series) (Entire Colts & Fillies) (Class 1) (3yo)The race that defines a generation. #4- Hurricane Lane (8-1) son of Frankel is perfect in three starts, won the Dante S. (GII) at York like there was more to come. Appleby/Buick/Godolphin. #11- Third Realm (15-1) no way those m/l odds hold. Won the Derby Trial like a pro. Others are more experienced but he has buckets of promise. EX- 4,11/ALL Result: 1,8,4 Godolphin runs one-three, but not the way you'd expect! Adayar ($36.80) son of Frankel out of a Dubawi mare ran like he was the favorite under Adam Kirby, drawing off by 4 1/2 lengths over maiden Mojo Star, which had two seconds in two starts on his record. Hurricane Lane ran well enough to be third with no excuse, and Third Realm was fifth just behind Irish Guineas winner Mac Swiney. Odds-on favorite Bolshoi Ballet fell back when the real running began, finished a well-beaten seventh, I believe. Exacta- $1217.00 Trifecta- $9533.60 !! EPS R6 (12:15pm EDT)- 1m4f Northern Dancer Handicap (Class 2) (4yo+ 0-105)#2- The Trader (10-1) is usually there or thereabouts at the wire, may drift up in the odds. #8- Group One Power (7-2) won over course and distance on seasonal reappearance, one to beat. EX- 2,8/2,5,8,9 Result: 5,3,8 Should have taken the hint when Alan King reached out to William Buick to take the mount on Midnights Legacy ($23.50), thundering home from the back of the pack to win easily from Soto Sizzler, which reared at the start and would likely have been the winner otherwise.EPS R7 (12:50pm EDT)- 6f Handicap (For the Tokyo Trophy) (Class 2) (4yo+ 0-105)
#3- Lexington Dash (6-1) is improving in his 4yo season, looks very good coming into this. EX- 3/2,4,9 Result: 9,13,11 Lexington Dash needs to keep improving. Favorite Ejtilaab (5-2) got it done after a day full of longshots.
Good luck if you play today! TW
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Post by DoctorDisaster on Jun 5, 2021 10:06:33 GMT -5
Not yet.I have some interest in 3 Gear Up in the 4:30 GL
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1hooper
UpInClass Steward
Posts: 6,779
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Post by 1hooper on Jun 5, 2021 10:17:51 GMT -5
One Ruler to hit the board at double digits. Good form at 2yo,prepped in 2000 Guineas.
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