Questions

[cindyloujazz]

How many of you use the final 3/8 time in your handicapping the Derby?
And how important is that one stat in your overall handicapping?
One more, do you also use this to handicap the Oaks?
I'm curious one week out. Not much to do, sitting around twittling my thumbs, waiting for the draw.

[Badactor]

<<<<<cindyloujazz>>>>>

It is so nice to see you again! - Dell

[shoes]

Cindylou- I do look at the final 3/8 because of the "first time 1 1/4" factor for all of the horses in the Derby, though as Richard pointed out the Louisiana Derby came closer to that distance than all the others. As someone has noted in past years though, it's easier to come home (relatively) fast, if you started slower and vice versa. I use it most to see if what visually looked like a strong close was more a case of the leaders slowing down, more than usual.

I have not used this metric for the Oaks, in part because normally the fillies have either already gone 1 1/8 or at least 1 1/16.

[cindyloujazz]

Thank you, Dell!!! I have to say, I totally respect you for picking your horse, Sainthood for the Derby. One horse. I have a list of horses that I will probably boxing. I can't land on just one, too paranoid about,
"what if . . . ."
I think Manny Franco would be an excellent fit for Sainthood. I hope TAP makes his decision soon.
Good luck my friend and God Bless.

[1hooper]

Raw times can be deceiving track to track and day to day.

[cindyloujazz]

Thank you shoes and hooper. I appreciate your help in trying figure out this Derby puzzle.

[eye123]

[shoes]

Thanks eye! Do you know what the asterisks next to some of the numbers signify?

[eye123]

They signify the added distance in the La Derby.

[shoes]

Apr 25, 2021 8:07:37 GMT -5 eye123 said:

They signify the added distance in the La Derby.

Ah- and the #sign is the lesser distance for Tampa Bay Derby and Lexington Stakes.

[diablo313]

And the +?

[diablo313]

...is that All Weather?

[shoes]

Apr 26, 2021 7:54:26 GMT -5 diablo313 said:

...is that All Weather?

Looks like it.

[ozzy]

Corey Lanerie named on Sainthood which is interesting. I've often used the come home time as a factor as I typically do not like horses crawling home, but as with everything else, things are changing when it comes to handicapping the Derby. Hard and fast rules which were absolute have been tossed aside recently and I think the main thing is to be flexible in the tools you use.

[shoes]

Apr 26, 2021 10:51:55 GMT -5 ozzy said:

Corey Lanerie named on Sainthood which is interesting. I've often used the come home time as a factor as I typically do not like horses crawling home, but as with everything else, things are changing when it comes to handicapping the Derby. Hard and fast rules which were absolute have been tossed aside recently and I think the main thing is to be flexible in the tools you use.

Words of wisdom about being flexible.

[ozzy]

I can't believe how much the preparation and the paths to get a horse to the Derby have changed in the past 25 years, let alone the criteria used to select the winner. Dual Qualifiers, 2yo foundation, going against the 2YO champ, going against the Derby favorite, 3-4 race 3YO preps (one being a one turn sprint to start), needing a race 3 weeks out, no layoff longer the 5 weeks, etc., etc, etc. It's all changed so much!

I like John White's Strike System as it does a good job combining so many "rules for the Derby winner" but even it is a bit tepid the last few years.

[ozzy]

backring.paulickreport.com/analysis-which-kentucky-derby-hopefuls-are-best-bred-to-handle-the-classic-distance/

Has anyone looked much into this report on Average Winning Distance (AWD)? I like the theory but the limited number of foals, then winners for many mares and the distances one horse runs seems to heavily influence things in total but especially on the dam side. I knew without looking that Known Agenda would be #1 simply for the fact that he has raced 4 times at 1 1/8 and that King Fury would be high up as he has never raced at a distance over than 1 1/16, including his debut. The opposite for Highly Motivated who I thought would be far down the list with only one two turn race and a foundation of 6f sprints as a 2YO. Just curious as to other's thoughts. I've certainly look at AWDs for sires and utilize from time to time as a tool, but this seems a little more of a flawed system.

[mattcoll]

I read that yesterday and I agree it's not enough data to make reliable predictions.

For instance the dam of hot rod charlie has 5 runners, 5 winners with a lot of wins, and a really short average winning distance that might concern me.....and then I see that 10 of the 18 wins came from Mitole!!! As if producing a champion sprinter is a bad thing.

[shoes]

It is interesting and I do look at the AWD numbers on the Brisket forms, but it can be a dangerous shortcut if you don't dig a bit deeper, and consider how it might be skewed as pointed out.