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Post by UpInClass on Feb 26, 2018 11:24:35 GMT -5
In 2007, I had the pleasure of speaking with Mr. Frank Carulli, Odds Maker/Track Handicapper @ Laurel & Pimlico. (Frank makes the morning line for the Preakness.) This is the information he shared with me about Morning Lines:
MORNING LINE FORMULAAssign odds to each horse Each odds increment has a point value Total points, regardless of field size, should be 124 The 124-point scale weighs in a 17-percent takeout and 7 percent margin of error by the oddsmaker (Or so Im told thats how the universal scale came about). Save for the 7-percent margin of error, an oddsmaker could, in theory, have a perfect line on a race using the scale. If the point total is over 124, the oddsmaker is cheating. I often do that in a 12-horse field because I consider the 30-1s more like 50-1s. I try to not embarrass the owner and list 50-1. Odds should reflect the horses projected odds at post time. They are often misinterpreted as selections. If Im not sure on a race, I will pinch the odds toward the middle, meaning several horses from, say, 3-1 to 8-1 range. Im more worried about a 15-1 morning line horse being 9-2 than I am a 5-2 morning line favorite being 7-5. Odds ----- Point Value 1-1 --------- 50 6-5 --------- 45 7-5 --------- 42 3-2 --------- 40 8-5 --------- 38 9-5 --------- 35 2-1 --------- 33 5-2 --------- 28 3-1 --------- 25 7-2 --------- 22 4-1 --------- 20 9-2 --------- 18 5-1 --------- 16 6-1 --------- 14 8-1 --------- 11 10-1 --------- 8 12-1 --------- 7 15-1 --------- 6 20-1 --------- 4 30-1 --------- 1 50-1 --------- 0 --------------------------------------------------------------------
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Post by tims70ar on Feb 26, 2018 16:25:59 GMT -5
Can you say: "You learn something new everyday!" ??
Thanks for posting this.
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Post by cherokeescot on Feb 26, 2018 17:26:12 GMT -5
You should send this to Spanky’s bookie !
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chuckster1968
UpInClass Member
maidenspecialweight68@outlook.com
Posts: 67
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Post by chuckster1968 on Apr 20, 2021 12:43:31 GMT -5
Read Barry Meadows, he explains how to make your own line.
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shoes
UpInClass Steward
Posts: 2,074
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Post by shoes on Apr 20, 2021 15:25:15 GMT -5
So the 50-1s are essentially freebies.
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Post by UpInClass on Apr 22, 2021 17:12:24 GMT -5
The official morning-line odds for the 2021 Kentucky Derby will not be released
until the 2021 Kentucky Derby draw takes place. The post position draw for the 147th Kentucky Derby
is set for Tuesday April 27 at 11:00 a.m. ET, which is when we'll find out who are the 20 runners racing in this year's event.
In the meantime, VegasInsider.com Horse Racing expert Anthony Stabile has started to produce his early Kentucky Derby
betting odds for the 147th running on May 1, 2021.
Stabile's morning-line odds will be updated prior to the draw and his numbers will include
the potential 20 runners for this year's race before the draw, when the official field is announced.
Kentucky Derby - Big A Morning-Line Odds Essential Quality 3/1 Brad Cox Luis Saez Rock Your World 6/1 John Sadler Joel Rosario Known Agenda 8/1 Todd Pletcher Irad Ortiz, Jr. Highly Motivated 10/1 Chad Brown Javier Castellano Hot Rod Charlie 10/1 Doug O’Neill Flavien Prat Medina Spirit 15/1 Bob Baffert John Velazquez Midnight Bourbon 20/1 Steve Asmussen Mike Smith Mandaloun 20/1 Brad Cox Florent Geroux Super Stock 20/1 Steve Asmussen Ricardo Santana, Jr. Caddo River 30/1 Brad Cox TBD?? Soup and Sandwich 30/1 Mark Casse Tyler Gaffalione O Besos 30/1 Greg Foley Marcelino Pedroza Like the King 40/1 Wesley Ward Drayden Van Dyke Bourbonic 40/1 Todd Pletcher Kendrick Carmouche Helium 40/1 Mark Casse Julien Leparoux Dynamic One 40/1 Todd Pletcher Jose Ortiz Sainthood 50/1 Todd Pletcher TBD?? Hidden Stash 50/1 Vicki Oliver Rafael Bejarano
Get Her Number 50/1 Peter Miller TBD??
Quick tally...his numbers add up to 88??
That's a lazy line conversation starter.
Odds ----- Point Value 1-1 --------- 50 6-5 --------- 45 7-5 --------- 42 3-2 --------- 40 8-5 --------- 38 9-5 --------- 35 2-1 --------- 33 5-2 --------- 28 3-1 --------- 25 7-2 --------- 22 4-1 --------- 20 9-2 --------- 18 5-1 --------- 16 6-1 --------- 14 8-1 --------- 11 10-1 --------- 8 12-1 --------- 7 15-1 --------- 6 20-1 --------- 4 30-1 --------- 1 50-1 --------- 0 ------------------------------------- Essential Quality Rock Your World Known Agenda Highly Motivated Hot Rod Charlie Medina Spirit Midnight Bourbon Mandaloun Super Stock Caddo River Sour and Sandwich O Besos Like the King Bourbonic Helium Dynamic One Sainthood Hidden Stash Get Her Number
"Total points, regardless of field size, should be 124"
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Post by bobtailnag on Apr 22, 2021 22:31:51 GMT -5
Barry Meadows - haven't seen that name in years. He was a regular on the ABC Sports Horse Racing message board when I joined it circa 1996. Time flies.
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Post by Badactor on Apr 23, 2021 11:21:51 GMT -5
Essential Quality 7-2 --------- 22 pts. Rock Your World 4-1 --------- 20 Medina Spirit 6-1 --------- 14 Known Agenda 8-1 --------- 11 Super Stock 8-1 --------- 11 Caddo River 8-1 --------- 11 Mandaloun 10-1 --------- 8 Highly Motivated 12-1 --------- 7 Hot Rod Charlie 12-1 --------- 7 Soup and Sandwich 15-1 --------- 6 Helium 20-1 --------- 4 O Besos 30-1 --------- 1 Like the King 30-1 --------- 1 Midnight Bourbon 30-1 --------- 1 Hidden Stash 40-1 --------- 0 Dynamic One 40-1 --------- 0 Get Her Number 45-1 --------- 0 Bourbonic 50-1 --------- 0
Sainthood 68-1 --------- 0 Badactor's Kentucky Derby Morning Line Odds attempt ... total 124pts.
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shoes
UpInClass Steward
Posts: 2,074
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Post by shoes on Apr 23, 2021 11:33:12 GMT -5
Maybe it will be different this year but it feels like since Giacomo (and Closing Argument) and Mine That Bird, that we have seen fewer of the really long odds horses on the board at post time- i.e. the longest shots get bet down a bit.
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jolyb
UpInClass Member
Posts: 888
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Post by jolyb on Apr 23, 2021 12:37:19 GMT -5
Dell, a very well thought out line. I think that your morning line comes a lot closer to reality than Mr. Stabile's. He shares the NYRA Talking Horses program with Andy Serling - didn't know he also was an expert with Vegas Insider.
I think that both lines may have too many at 40-1 and higher. While that may reflect their actual chances of winning, Shoes makes an excellent point that for the Derby the longest prices are bet down lower than they should be. The line I would make would have Hot Rod Charlie and Highly Motivated a tad lower than you do and would put Helium much higher.
It will be interesting to see how it all ends up.
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Post by cherokeescot on Apr 23, 2021 18:48:26 GMT -5
Well done Dell but you need to cut Essential Quality a tad and double the odds of Caddo River and Mandaloun . If you’re offering 50-1 on Bourbonic , I will take some. Best I’ve seen with the British bookies is 14-1. !
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Post by Badactor on Apr 26, 2021 11:05:19 GMT -5
"BAD" ODDS & ENTRIES:
Elusive Quality 5-2 ------- 28 pts. Rock Your World 7-2 ---- 22 Medina Spirit 6-1 ---------- 14 Known Agenda 8-1 -------- 11 Super Stock 8-1 ------------- 11 Highly Motivated 10-1 ----- 8 Hot Rod Charlie 10-1 ------- 8
Soup and Sandwich 12-1 -- 7
Dynamic One 20-1 ---------- 4
Helium 20-1 ------------------ 4 O Besos 30-1 ------------------ 1 Like the King 30-1 ----------- 1
Bourbonic 30-1 -------------- 1 Midnight Bourbon 30-1---- 1
Mandaloun 30-1 ------------- 1
Hidden Stash 30-1 ---------- 1
Get Her Number 30-1 ------ 1
Keepmeinmind 40-1 ------- 0 Brooklyn Strong 40-1 ------ 0
Sainthood 68-1 --------------- 0
"Bad's Revised Kentucky Derby Morning Line Odds" ... total 124pts.
Odds = Point Value 1-1 --------- 50 6-5 --------- 45 7-5 --------- 42 3-2 --------- 40 8-5 --------- 38 9-5 --------- 35 2-1 --------- 33 5-2 --------- 28 3-1 --------- 25 7-2 --------- 22 4-1 --------- 20 9-2 --------- 18 5-1 --------- 16 6-1 --------- 14 8-1 --------- 11 10-1 --------- 8 12-1 --------- 7 15-1 --------- 6 20-1 --------- 4 30-1 --------- 1 50-1 --------- 0
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Post by Badactor on Apr 26, 2021 12:54:20 GMT -5
IN THE WINGS: Starrininmydreams
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