chuckster1968
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Post by chuckster1968 on Apr 11, 2021 16:35:48 GMT -5
1) Essential Quality: L. Saez
2) Hot Rod Charlie: J. Rosario
3) Super Stock: R. Santana
4) Like The King: D. Van Dyke
5) Known Agenda: I. Ortiz Jr.
6) Rock Your World: U. Rispoli
7) Bourbonic: K. Carmouche
8) Medina Spirit: ? M. Smith/F. Prat./ J. Velasquez
9) Concert Tour: M. Smith/F. Prat/ I. Ortiz Jr.?
10) Midnight Bourbon: J. Talamo/C. Lanerie
11) Weyburn: T. McCarthy
12) Mandaloun: F. Geroux/M. Murrill
13) Caddo River:F. Geroux?
14) Highly Motivated: JJ. Castellano/I. Ortiz Jr.
15) Helium: J. Leparoux
16) Panadol: F. Prat/C. Lanarie/A Beschizza/
17)Soup and Sandwich: J.Velasquez? C. Landeros
18) Rombauer: M. Smith/JJ. Castellano/ C. Lanerie
19) Sainthood: M. Franco?
20) Crowded Trade: J. Ortiz/M Franco/E. Cancel
Thoughts?
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shoes
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Post by shoes on Apr 11, 2021 18:27:30 GMT -5
Rispoli is a really good jockey. It is his first Derby, but has he ridden at CD before?I don't recall that he has.
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Post by cindyloujazz on Apr 11, 2021 19:16:23 GMT -5
The top 4 Derby winning jockeys from this years list are Mike Smith, Johnny V, Flavian Prat and Joel Rosario.
I may play a 4 jockey exacta box for one of my wagers. 🙂
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1hooper
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Post by 1hooper on Apr 11, 2021 19:21:55 GMT -5
Rispoli is a really good jockey. It is his first Derby, but has he ridden at CD before?I don't recall that he has. Sounds like he hasn't. From DRF. Last November, a few days before the Breeders’ Cup at Keeneland, jockey Umberto Rispoli drove to Louisville, Ky., to get a first-hand look of racing at Churchill Downs. Rispoli did not have a mount, but wanted to visit the historic track. In a few weeks, Rispoli will return to Churchill Downs with a much greater purpose. On May 1, he is scheduled to ride the undefeated Rock Your World in the Kentucky Derby and the top turf horse Smooth Like Strait in the Grade 1 Old Forester Turf Classic. |
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Post by Badactor on Apr 12, 2021 13:42:36 GMT -5
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chuckster1968
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Post by chuckster1968 on Apr 12, 2021 18:15:27 GMT -5
No rode in the Breeders Cup but not sure if he had a mount at Louisville. I was surprised as I think Prat is a great rider in the Cal. circuit but he is middle of the pack when he comes in for the Breeders Cup days. I still believe, The NY Belmont, The Spa and Gulfstream Championship meet are the best jockeys in the world followed by the Churchill meet. He has been named for Hot Rod Charlie. I guess Rosario and agent had not decided which I am shocked because I figured O Neal would go to M. Guittieriez but I guess its the owner's who make the final call and whom they ask for?
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chuckster1968
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Post by chuckster1968 on Apr 12, 2021 18:38:57 GMT -5
Sorry Prat riding Hot Rod Charlie. So I am interested on Irad Ortiz Jr. chooses or the highest bidder. Chad Brown has only committed one horse Highly Motivated and J. Castellano has been the main rider. Leparoux named for Helium. Some people feel Baffert told Rosario to hold him right next to Caddo the whole trip, could be but.. I seen a horse that just could not pass him and Baffert horses if they are derby bound/worthy his horses like Life is Good, Charletan, Nadal, his derby winners or contenders like Authentic etc are horses that pass or lead and then hit another button and take off. I do not see that in Concert Tour and when Baffert is non-committal to a horse to the derby, it means he is not very confident.
So really surprised that Rosario would not have tried to secure the ride on Hot Rod Charlie unless he has a better offer. Weyburn dropped out. So Mike Smith not committed to anyone yet or does he skip it again with Covid. I find it interesting, does Jose Ortiz take Wood Horse and block for his brother.. You have Baffert with 2 , Brad Cox with 2 or 3 depending on ownership.. Pletcher with a potential for 4 horses. Asmussen with 2. Chad Brown..possibly 2. Casse 2 horses. That is a possible 15 horses. that leaves who ends up scratching due to vet ailment or if Panadol ships, and who decides to just not run.. or decides to be apart of it. You could see King Fury based on defections.. Brian Hernandez JR> Anyways, will see... Just not sold on Prat.. even though real high on Hot Rod Charlie..reason lots of people not realizing that Loui. Derby is 1 3/16 and he won with Rosario and still on the bridal a quarter way down the stretch. I am so surprised that more Derby winners have not come out of the Fair Ground preps because of the long stretch there and long stretch at Churchill. I like Known Agenda because he still looked a little green but is there something about those tough claimer horses the last 2 of 3 years... Bourbonic, Maximum Security (Although.. I think that horse was still high going back to the Florida Derby...kidding.. Jason Servis joke)
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Post by cherokeescot on Apr 13, 2021 22:39:25 GMT -5
Mike Smith is riding Midnight Bourbon
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Post by cherokeescot on Apr 14, 2021 4:44:51 GMT -5
Medina Spirit - J Velazquez
Soup and Sandwich - T Gaffalione
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Post by cherokeescot on Apr 15, 2021 17:36:06 GMT -5
Panadol is out so that’s one less headache to worry about.
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tc
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Post by tc on Apr 15, 2021 21:31:36 GMT -5
5) Known Agenda: I. Ortiz Jr.
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Post by elkurzhal on Apr 16, 2021 8:03:43 GMT -5
Irad on Known Agenda locks him in as second choice?
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Post by bobtailnag on Apr 16, 2021 10:56:20 GMT -5
Pretending EQ doesn't exist, my initial top two is KA & HM. Lots of speed in here.
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Post by Badactor on Apr 16, 2021 11:46:15 GMT -5
Pretending EQ doesn't exist Is Manny on Sainthood? |
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Post by Badactor on Apr 16, 2021 13:37:56 GMT -5
“Because of the spacing of their last two races,
I wanted a more serious work out of them,” Pletcher said.
“I thought both horses got over the surface well and that’s
what was most important about getting them up here early to work over it."
Jockey Irad Ortiz Jr. will pilot the St. Elias Stable homebred Known Agenda on May 1.
A jockey has not yet been confirmed for Sainthood, who will make only his fourth career start in the Derby. |
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Post by longshot on Apr 17, 2021 21:01:46 GMT -5
Word today was that Rosario will ride Rock Your World and Rispoli will go to either Dream Shake or Get Her Number.
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shoes
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Post by shoes on Apr 18, 2021 17:04:15 GMT -5
Word today was that Rosario will ride Rock Your World and Rispoli will go to either Dream Shake or Get Her Number. Obviously that's the owner/trainer's prerogative, and I get why they'd want to but it still bums me out. Will likely have at least some impact on the horse's odds. |
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chuckster1968
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Post by chuckster1968 on Apr 18, 2021 22:38:18 GMT -5
Well, everyone up in arms about Rispoli being taken off Rock Your World. First of all, Rosario 8 Derbies, Breeders Cup wins including the classic. In his youth, if I am not mistaken did have tack in California. Also, has returned to ride in California as opposed to the Gulfstream championship meet. Secondly, Rispoli, no derby experience, no Breeders cup wins and successful in California. I believe Rosario has won many times for Sadler over the years. Other news, Gafflione to ride Casse's Soup and Sandwich, which to me sounds like John V. gets Medina Spirit.
1) Essential Quality L. Saez
2) Rock Your World J. Rosario
3) Known Agenda I. Ortiz Jr.
4) Dynamic One J. Ortiz
5) Highly Motivated J. Castellano
6) Hot Rod Charlie F. Prat
7) Like the King D. Van Dyke
8) Midnight Bourbon M. Smith
9) Super Stock R. Santana
10) Medina Spirt J.Velasquez
11) Helium J.Leparoux
12) Soup and Sandwich T. Gafflione
13) Mandaloun F. Geroux
14) Bourbonic K. Carmouche
15) Hidden Stash R. Bejarano
16) O Besos M. Pedroza
17) Dream Shake U.Rispoli/Abel Cedillo
18) SaintHood G Corrales
19) King Fury B. Hernandez Jr.
20) Caddo River: G. Saez/Miguel Mena
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Post by Badactor on Apr 19, 2021 0:15:41 GMT -5
Corrales.
O.K.
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shoes
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Post by shoes on Apr 19, 2021 8:34:13 GMT -5
chuckster- as I said I get it. Rosario is at least in the top 3 of North American jockeys riding today, IMO. I watched him close up just the past week at Keeneland. He is 1-9 in KY Derbies (Orb, who was a big winner for me).I just think that Rispoli is excellent and as Rock your World is one of the horses I am considering as my Derby choice, I think the jockey change might hurt his odds without increasing his chances to win.My guess is that RYW and Known Agenda fight it out to be the second choice of bettors.
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Post by unusualpete on Apr 19, 2021 13:26:18 GMT -5
wondering the probable jockeys for the oaks. any resources out there? post 'em up. appreciate you.
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Post by Badactor on Apr 19, 2021 14:49:38 GMT -5
wondering the probable jockeys for the oaks. any resources out there? post 'em up. appreciate you.
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eye123
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Post by eye123 on Apr 19, 2021 16:05:14 GMT -5
Pretending EQ doesn't exist, my initial top two is KA & HM. Lots of speed in here.  At this point (just off everything we've seen from the field, not counting weather,post draw,works,trip, etc) it's Essential Quality and everybody else. His last race was his best ragozin #(6) (while traveling 29 feet further then Highly Motivated) and the best anyone else in the field has shown to date.(7)By Hot Rod in the Breeders Cup Juvenile where beat by Essential Quality and Known Agenda's Florida Derby effort. Also Soup and Sandwhich got a 7 in the Florida Derby (traveled 34 ft further then Known Agenda who got the perfect trip along the rail). tnetwork.trakus.com/tnet/t_Gulfstream.aspx?EventID=188111&Date=3/27/2021&Type=TBRED&Venue=20&DisplayType=1If Essential Quality falters ....look out....get ready to fill out a W-2G if you hit ! Good Luck, this should be fun. |
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chuckster1968
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Post by chuckster1968 on Apr 19, 2021 16:40:44 GMT -5
Well early pps are out at Horse Racing Nation and Brisnet and there are so many ep types. I looked at the three best closers and their third quarter times. And I keep changing my mind but man.. I think obvious whoever of these 3-4 horses who have enough to be within 5-6 lengths of all these speed types. Because on paper between Ess. Q, Rock Your World, Highly Motivated, will say Medina Spirit, and Midnight Bourbon, all these horses up trying to fight for position. Matt Bernier predicts Mandaloun will come off the pace. Not me, the scary two horses based on their calls at 3/4 are King Fury, And Known Agenda. If King Fury decides to run. I know the California horses get big numbers and I do not dispute their horses and the times put out at Santa Anita. However, it is mostly against Baffert Talent and ok Rock Your World. Rosario is a better jockey than Rispoli ok. 1 derby win in 9. ok.. so what. J Castellano 0 in an amazing career, John V. only two. Irad Ortiz becoming one of the best to sit off the pace and pounce. Known Agenda will have had 5 weeks since the Florida Derby win and when you watch that hurt pick up after he drifts out, showing he still green. Shows me, this horse is going to have one head of steam coming down the stretch. The other presser horse is King Fury. This horse has the most experience at Churchill Downs and again his 3rd call time. I think this horse will be coming or be one of the horses late in the mix. I do not see Ess. Quality, I see Highly Motivated and Rock Your World dueling late Essential final will bounce hard and Known Agenda getting up late or taking over late and pulling away.
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Post by Badactor on Apr 19, 2021 17:30:32 GMT -5
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chuckster1968
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Post by chuckster1968 on Apr 19, 2021 23:43:27 GMT -5
Corrales is a jockey nobody talks about and I am glad you brought him up. One of W. Wards guys he goes to when the big boys are not in town. I will say this to be devil's advocate, but I went back and watched this race as Corrales and connections claimed foul and it was disallowed and the reason it was disallowed because do you not think that Corrales gave the horse a questionable ride at best. He has a good post position, I know he has some early speed but he got out in clubhouse turn and then tucked down to the rail to save his ground...correct. That is smart, very Johnny V. like and be patient, however, did Corrales forget what he was racing against. A jockey should have a reasonable idea of what he is up against, who is really late closer type, who might quit on the lead. Corrales reacted too late 1/2 way through the far turn. Hockey Dad, etc. all made those moves from the outside 4-5 horses wide, so now he decides to move once those horses made their move. If this horse had so much my friend, he had him in the rail position, he should have tipped out earlier, he had a ton of horse. He caused his own problems in the stretch, that being Corrales. Once he straightens out in the stretch, Like the King had already establish his line to make his run pass the horses that were going to be finished at the 1/16 pole. So, ya great run, the horse reengaged, with an extra kick. If it was strategy on Pletchers part.  He took too long to get this horse to start running, he could have cleared earlier if he had that much run in him and cruised home, instead, it looks like a great late kick, no.. looks like a bad ride. I will not take anything against the horse, my guess Pletcher uses him upfront with the rest of the speed and dies out and here come the closers. Bet him all you want. How many horses from the Turfway and the Spiral have won the Kentucky Derby. Animal Kingdom...sloppy track. and Lil E Tee. Good luck with that. |
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Post by mysaladdays on Apr 20, 2021 4:47:17 GMT -5
Rispoli is a really good jockey. It is his first Derby, but has he ridden at CD before?I don't recall that he has. I really really liked him to pilot RYW. Rispoli has won Group 1 races in many other countries. He's no slouch and he and RYW fit perfectly. Guess we'll see but sometimes bring in the big money rider isn't the right answer. It's not how many races they win so much as rider+horse "fit". It was like if you took Calvin Borel off Mine That Bird. Those 2 were the perfect team. THat's how I feel about Rispoli and RYW. Why change up perfection??? Not to mention every time Rosario gets on one of my horses they lose. I know his successes..... he just doesn't float my boat. Let's hope Joel gives a better ride than he did on Rushie :sarcasm: |
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Post by mysaladdays on Apr 20, 2021 4:55:23 GMT -5
Pretending EQ doesn't exist, my initial top two is KA & HM. Lots of speed in here. If Essential Quality falters ....look out....get ready to fill out a W-2G if you hit ! Good Luck, this should be fun. EQ is the model of ultra-consistentcy. We can count on him to run well. But this is the KY Derby Chaos race. As an aside, they should have entered him in AR and picked up a cool million instead of putting him in a speed duel with Highly Motivated. |
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chuckster1968
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Post by chuckster1968 on Apr 20, 2021 12:42:09 GMT -5
P.S. I am Canadian, when we hit big, we just ask for a check.. No taxes on our winnings here
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Post by spiderjohn on Apr 20, 2021 13:45:40 GMT -5
moved to the works topic:
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At this point (just off everything we've seen from the field, not counting weather,post draw,works,trip, etc) it's Essential Quality and everybody else. His last race was his best ragozin #(6) (while traveling 29 feet further then Highly Motivated) and the best anyone else in the field has shown to date.(7)By Hot Rod in the Breeders Cup Juvenile where beat by Essential Quality and Known Agenda's Florida Derby effort. Also Soup and Sandwhich got a 7 in the Florida Derby (traveled 34 ft further then Known Agenda who got the perfect trip along the rail).
He took too long to get this horse to start running, he could have cleared earlier if he had that much run in him and cruised home, instead, it looks like a great late kick, no.. looks like a bad ride. I will not take anything against the horse, my guess Pletcher uses him upfront with the rest of the speed and dies out and here come the closers. Bet him all you want. How many horses from the Turfway and the Spiral have won the Kentucky Derby. Animal Kingdom...sloppy track. and Lil E Tee. Good luck with that. 
