Keeneland Sat Late PK4

[eye123]

Interesting sequence. 

Can you really get past Essential and Highly in the Blue Grass. Can you get past Pass,Simply,Malathaat,Will's  in the Ashland. Going five deep in the Madison should cover you there. So your looking at 40 combos  at half a buck....$20 x 2 in the Shakerstown. Question is which two. Interesting race where you could go in several directions. If your willing to take a stand against the ML choices there are several who are interesting in here.  (+JKYw/ Trn L60 11 27% 55% +8.78) This stat caught my eye. Just Might. Roi of 8.78. 3 for 11 with Colby last 60 days. Comes off a win off turf  top number for him, first win in a while. He beat Extravagant Kid in last.If you watched the Dubai races you saw what that one did. At the 12-1 ML worth a play. So where else? Don't want to use to many here so one more.($40 ticket) I'd want to stay away from all the single digit ML to make this ticket worth playing. So bombs away. American Butterfly at 50-1 I find interesting. By American Pharoah entered at 51/2 F turf twice..both taken off the turf. This race will be quick up front, he can sit a trip from mid pack...and should he take to surface and distance where they have tried to get him all along. with a good ride (Drayden up) with good series of works and 50-1 ML ?? 


Who do you like ? 

[DoctorDisaster]

GL Eye.I haven't gone that deep into the card yet.
Looking to do better than yesterday.I only played the first three and dropped the ball on the Sharp 2yo.Had her in doubles but missed the first leg.Then I watched in disgust as I didn't go back and make a play on her.She goes gate to wire at 12.9/1. Didn't make another bet all day.
4/3 Kee1
I'll use 1 Ghazaaly 7/5 and 5 Bennyfromthebronx 2/1
Kee2
5 Perfect Cut 5/1, looks best,McPeek cuts back off the maiden win,good fig.
2 Mahomes Money 4/1,had a good set up in last, now gets more ground.
3 CFV Red Nova 20/1,two dull efforts on AW in last,I want in if he takes to the dirt.
DD 1,5/2,3,5
GL

[spiderjohn]

Tough
7-9-11-13/2-5-6/4-6/3-4

[shoes]

Apr 2, 2021 20:37:37 GMT -5 eye123 said:

Interesting sequence. 

Can you really get past Essential and Highly in the Blue Grass. Can you get past Pass,Simply,Malathaat,Will's  in the Ashland. Going five deep in the Madison should cover you there. So your looking at 40 combos  at half a buck....$20 x 2 in the Shakerstown. Question is which two. Interesting race where you could go in several directions. If your willing to take a stand against the ML choices there are several who are interesting in here.  (+JKYw/ Trn L60 11 27% 55% +8.78) This stat caught my eye. Just Might. Roi of 8.78. 3 for 11 with Colby last 60 days. Comes off a win off turf  top number for him, first win in a while. He beat Extravagant Kid in last.If you watched the Dubai races you saw what that one did. At the 12-1 ML worth a play. So where else? Don't want to use to many here so one more.($40 ticket) I'd want to stay away from all the single digit ML to make this ticket worth playing. So bombs away. American Butterfly at 50-1 I find interesting. By American Pharoah entered at 51/2 F turf twice..both taken off the turf. This race will be quick up front, he can sit a trip from mid pack...and should he take to surface and distance where they have tried to get him all along. with a good ride (Drayden up) with good series of works and 50-1 ML ?? 


Who do you like ? 

Wow- eye, I almost posted #8 American Butterfly too. That race is loaded with early pace types and I think it may well be a price on top. Think those odds will at least come close to post time odds given- the many other horses who look much better suited on the form. But I saw the same favorable turf Breeding you did (American Pharoah by a War Chant mare. People will look at the 1 1/16 turf try as a big negative, but was bothered at the start, then apparently rushed up, using energy early. Here he can let the confirmed front enders go. Also most see Lucas training a turf horse and will dismiss for that reason (granted I will do this too), but He's about 7 percent with the turf but only 9 percent overall, so it isn't that big of a disparity. Bottom line, he's a 50-1 for some good reasons, but not all 50-1 shots are hopeless.

[ozzy]

I’m all in on Just Might in this spot, including nearly singling him here. I’ll likely use Imprimis and Kanthanka as this race seems loaded with speed.

In the Ashland - I might go all although Simply Ravishing would be my top pick. Pass the Champagne is intriguing but like Will’s Secret the best for the Oaks in 4 weeks coming out of this one.

The Madison is a loaded race worthy of being a Grade 1 - Mundaye Call might be my lean as lots to like with a solid work tab and the confidence to come back in a G1 for her first start at 4 and should be sent from the start. My worry is she hooks up with Kamari. That didn’t play out well at all in the 8 Belles on Derby weekend.. Bell’s The One and Sconsin would benefit from that scenario, but maybe Sanenus sits the perfect trip. I’ll likely use all 5 as suggested above and try to get a better feel after watching a few.

In the Bluegrass - it should be Essential Quality but Highly Motivated will make him work for it and will use those two. My play a tri ticket keying EQ in the 1st and then 2nd spots using the 1,3,5 over and under.


Many know my connection to Hog Creek Hustle, but I am treading lightly with him here. The plan was to go to Dubai and run last week but he had a small issue and needed treatment in early March. Only one work back since and runs here but I am confident the CD Handicap at a mile on Derby Day is the main goal. I might give Bango a long look here.

[1hooper]

Thanks for the info Oz.

[1hooper]

Nibbling.
2,7,9,13
3,4,5
4,5,6
3,4

[1hooper]

$14 P4. Embarrassing.

[gam]

Was thinking there was some price potential in the late sequence but it turned out my chance came in the early p4. I singled the 1 in Race 2 and when I sketched it out I had 6 in the 4th. When I decided to go 3 deep in the 5th, I wanted to cut 2 from the 4th and cut the 9 and 11, who both won the 4th race. The 4 horses I kept weren't too close at the end. An unkind cut. Wish I'd cut two from the other side of the stack.

[gam]

So, question re: the multi-race payouts with the DH. The p3s show two different prices, one for each winner, but the p4 and p5 show just one price. Anyone know why they don't split the pools for the p4 and p5?

[shoes]

Apr 3, 2021 18:48:59 GMT -5 gam said:

So, question re: the multi-race payouts with the DH. The p3s show two different prices, one for each winner, but the p4 and p5 show just one price. Anyone know why they don't split the pools for the p4 and p5?

I wondered about that too. I assume it's in the rules but I did not know that. 

[gam]

Apr 3, 2021 19:38:55 GMT -5 shoes said:

Apr 3, 2021 18:48:59 GMT -5 gam said:

So, question re: the multi-race payouts with the DH. The p3s show two different prices, one for each winner, but the p4 and p5 show just one price. Anyone know why they don't split the pools for the p4 and p5?

I wondered about that too. I assume it's in the rules but I did not know that. 

Ya, if you had the 9 in the p4 or p5, it seems you're price was likely a little light in comparison to the p3s.