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Post by cherokeescot on Apr 2, 2021 8:45:44 GMT -5
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Post by thunderbolt on Apr 2, 2021 9:17:40 GMT -5
Earlier 5th race, #1 Gear Jockey:
recent form? check
drop in class from last race? check
best last out beyer? check
win at the distance? check
post position for a stalker? check
Leparoux on the grass? check
Rusty Arnold at Keeneland? check
2/1 morning line but with 12 entered, may drift higher.
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gam
UpInClass Member
Posts: 1,004
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Post by gam on Apr 2, 2021 9:20:43 GMT -5
Never heard about that suit, Bev.
It's interesting how the hot trainer in the Spring baby races cycles over the years. According to Jeremy Plonk, right now, Ward wins with about 57% of his baby starters. Since he sometimes starts two horses, that's amazing. Years ago, Ronny Werner was the hot hand with Tom Durant horses and for awhile Pletcher won a high percentage of them, too. In fact, IIRC, I was there when Limestone crushed one of those baby races in his debut.
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Post by bobtailnag on Apr 2, 2021 9:46:15 GMT -5
PK-s 7-8-9
R7 The Palisades on the turf
There's a lot of speed in here and no true stayers to hang a ticket one. The best chance appears to be another speed type named Unitedandresolute 10/1. Go back to his 2 year old efforts where he ran his only two races on the grass and note that he ran fron the back in both and made to good closing runs down the lane and hit the board in both. I suspect Mr. Amoss remembers those and a hope he's going to instruct Mr. Graham to ride accordingly. It's still going to be a challenge to get there first.
The even longer shot is Looking For Loki 12/1 Note that his 3 grass sprints were 3/2-1-0 and his lone dirt sprint this year was a win. I'm thinking I should us him too because he will be an overlay.
I'm using two of the speed – Bodenheimer & Chasing Artie.
R8 The Beaumont B3
More speed – My Girl Red 5/1 – Only 3 races and all last year. She won her maiden D-2-D then won the G2 Sorrento also D-2-G. Her last race, the G1 DMR, did go well but not because of her. She was mugged going out of the gate and Mr. Prat pulled her up. I assume she was injured as this is her first race after 8 months off. If she's 100% and in form she has as good a chance as any in here.
Slumber Party 2/1 Has only run once under her garder but it looked like a good one. They used 12 gates and she went D-2-D and won for fun but 7 or 8 lengths. I don't usually go with chalk with only on race filled in on the dance card but lack of experience is the only reason a can find to eliminate her from the card so she's in.
Twenty Carat 5/2 - Won her maiden in January by a neck but was DQed to place. Won heR next in February same way. Both were 12-horse fieLds. I'm curious as to why a horse who just squeezed in a maiden win to be bet down to .30c's on the dollar next out. I can only assume the other 11 were all Clydesdales. pulling beer wagons.
Found a long shot in Lady Traveler 15/1. #1 She's a stayer. #2 Her January race was the G3 Forward Gal where she ran mid-pack until the stretch call the mare a move to get the place money. Her last race was a route 1-1/8 and on the grass. For the first time. I surmise Mr. Romans used that as a prep for this race. She's a stayer but in that race he sent her to the front for the first 6 furlongs then eased her up for the last 3.
R9 The G3 Transylvania Turf) 1-1/16 Short field of 6
We have 3 chalk to choose from
Scarlett Sky 2/1 who seems to prefer to a little behine the speed that make a late move..
Fire At Will 9/5 who likes to be up front and won the G2 Pilgrim and B1 BCJuvTrf last year. He tried his hand on the dirt in February at the Fount of Youth but dirt is not to his liking..
Earl's Rock 2/1 and he hasn't decided what he likes yet. His first race was in Ireland and finished 2nd. Now in D'Amato's barn and is 2-for-2 and won a listed stakes last out.
None if these 6 have shown a liking to want the early lead.
Palazzi might have a chance. His first 4 races on the dirt didn't show much but when they put him on the grass he went 3/2-0-1. He did win a $200k mile race at Hou in January. His last waa listed stakes at FG when he came from last to 3rd to get a check.
I'll go with Fire – Earl and Palazzi.
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Post by cherokeescot on Apr 2, 2021 9:51:46 GMT -5
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Post by DoctorDisaster on Apr 2, 2021 10:04:37 GMT -5
Kee1 MSW 2yo fillies 4.5f
7 Iggy Bigs 20/1,big chance at big price
5 Jamaican Traffic 8/1,
2 Dream Fly 6/5,WW
Kee2 Oclm 62.5 4+ F&M 6.5f
1 Jeannie's Beepbeep 4/1
5 Cause I'm Edgy 15/1
3 Remanded 4/1
Kee3 MSW 2yo fillies 4.5f
2 American Bound 12/1
5 Marlin Quay 20/1
8 Magniloquent 8/5
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Post by elkurzhal on Apr 2, 2021 12:18:52 GMT -5
1- With you on Iggy Biggs Doc. Breading and works both point to a strong run here.
2- Cause Im Edgy has a shot at 15-1. 4th race of cycle last year was a big top to the fastest tgraph fig in the race. today is his forth off a long break after he ran that top. last race was showing some improvement. Rubley getting a huge 29% new tops and 35% pair tops last 90 days, hasn't translated to a ton of wins, but his horses are running well. aggressive/confident move to ship here.
3-Royal Counry is well bred and working fast, main challenger to Ward.
4-Beautiful memories showed a ton of talent 1st out, then didn't finish her next two starts. Gets Lasix today and has been working up a storm.
5-Lake Nakuru ran a couple TG figs as fast as the favorites last year. Comeback race was over a good track which he doesn't seem to appreciate. Should get back to his bets here and that's good enough for a piece at a price if Albarado doen't screw it up, which he probably will, ugh... Saez with no mount in the race, would love to see a change...
6-3&5 are most likely. Sa Forada is a little interesting for Colebrook who pops some prices at keeneland & off layoffs. Needs a major step up on figs, but gets lasix and pedigree on the dam side seem like more of a late bloomer. 2 is a firster from a mid Atlantic trainer owned by Tommy Town (cal), and racing at Keeneland. Beattie doesn't run a lot of firters, but when he does they are competitive.
7-Smokin Jay ran a fast 5f poly race last year, tries turf for the first time and could contend with Bodenheimer and Fauci
8-Slumber Party was huge first out for a trainer that is usually a little better 2nd out. single in the Pick 3/4/5/6 for me.
9- Palazzi is 6-1 and just as fast as the favorites on tgraph. pattern looks great for a new top today.
10- Queen Bourbon ran a solid race first out with trouble and the workout pattern and trainer history points to her needing that race.
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Post by Badactor on Apr 2, 2021 13:19:21 GMT -5
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Post by Badactor on Apr 2, 2021 14:24:09 GMT -5
500 wins @ Keeneland for jockey, Julien Leparoux!
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shoes
UpInClass Steward
Posts: 2,122
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Post by shoes on Apr 2, 2021 14:45:30 GMT -5
500 wins @ Keeneland for jockey, Julien Leparoux! Where the heck does the time go? It seems like just a couple of years ago when Julian was the hot new jockey at Keeneland. But then I've been going to live racing in Kentucky since before Pat Day started. |
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Post by spiderjohn on Apr 2, 2021 15:11:31 GMT -5
4-8/1-2-3/4-6/5-8-9
gl!
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