Live coverage of the Group 1, $12 million Dubai World Cup airs Saturday, March 27 at noon Eastern on FS1. The field for the 25th renewal of the Dubai World Cup is headlined by multiple graded stakes winner Mystic Guide and will include a collection of standout runners from around the world. Coverage of the Dubai World Cup undercard, featuring six stakes races, will air live from 8:00 a.m. to 12:00 p.m. on FS1. The ‘Golden Hour’ telecast, featuring live coverage of the Group 1 Dubai Sheema Classic and Group 1 Dubai World Cup, will air from noon-1 p.m., Eastern on FS1. Coverage of the Dubai World Cup card on FS1 is presented by Star Guitar
Post by tenfurlongs on Mar 26, 2021 9:06:53 GMT -5
I'm going to concentrate on the four turf races, but the dirt races are arguably more competitive where winners could come from a variety of sources.
Race 2- 1m Godolphin Mile (Group 2) (Dirt) (3yo+)
#8- Midnight Sands (5-2) is the deserving favorite, having won six in a row at Meydan, sandwiched around an unsuccessful three race gambit in the US last fall. Might be better at 7F however, so I'll box him with a few definitive milers like #12- Secret Ambition (7-1) which could be dangerous turning back from 10F, although it will be his fifth run of the meet, and #4- Chiefdom (10-1). Can't leave out #15- Urban Icon (20-1) either, which is set for a big run under Oisin Murphy following a close-up third in the Turf Sprint on Saudi Cup day. Has handled an AW track, just needs to like Meydan.
EXBOX- 4,8,12,15 W/P- 15
Race 3- 2m Dubai Gold Cup (Group 2) (Turf) (3yo+)
#8- Spanish Mission (6-1) sat a perfect trip on the rail in last, tipped out and ran through the wire for third. No world-beaters in here. #11- Subjectivist (3-1) makes first start as a a 4yo. Won a GI in France over heavy ground when last seen, but has run well on good ground too. Front-running type improved incrementally throughout his 3yo campaign, should be right there on the line.
Race 4- 6f Al Quoz Sprint (Group 1) (Turf) (3yo+)
#8- Space Blues (5-2) is a consummate sprinter, but he's better going 6.5 F & 7F and his one try over C&D was a rare poor effort; hard to single despite his obvious talent. #3- Khaadem (15-1) was a close-up fourth in two 6f GI tries last season, then went to the bench. Hills has him ready when fresh. Is this where we see the late Hamdan Al Maktoum's silks in the winner's circle?
Post by tenfurlongs on Mar 26, 2021 10:08:53 GMT -5
Race 5- 1m1½f UAE Derby (Group 2) (Dirt) (3yo)
#7- New Treasure (20-1) has an unsustainable m/l especially with Dettori riding. He ran remarkably well first time dirt for his new barn last time. That was probably the target race based on ownership and purse, but he earned a shot if he can handle the distance; price play. #1- El Patriota (15-1) is one of two that have the class and proven ability to get the distance, the other being #8- Panadol (9-2) which I'll be rooting for because of the breeders. #11- Speight'spercomete (15-1) has quietly improved each race despite maiden status.
Race 6- 6f Dubai Golden Shaheen (Group 1) (Dirt) (3yo+)
No idea. Taking a complete flier on #10- Red Le Zele (15-1) with Ryan Moore aboard. Good 6F record, is consistent and improving. #3- Copano Kicking (7-1) will be flying late if they go too fast early. #8- Matera Sky (5-1) doesn't win often enough, but ships for big races like this and always shows up.
EXBOX- 3,8,10 W/P- 10
Race 7- 1m1f Dubai Turf (Group 1) (Turf) (3yo+)
Seems like everyone is tying themselves to the mast of the good ship #10- Lord North (3-1 and dropping), so I'm going to try #9- Lord Glitters (7-2) the ageless 8yo who loves it here and has never been better. Just needs a pace to run at. #11- Regal Reality (8-1) can run with the likes of Enable, Ghaiyyath and Elarqam at 10F, and ran three good mile races last summer. Maybe this distance will be the right porridge for him. Spread wide.
We keep waiting for #5- Walton Street (8-1) to bump his head on the ceiling, but it hasn't happened yet. Exemplary race record and is still improving as a 7yo, it appears. #8- Mogul (7-2) had a rocky start to his 3yo season and many folks including me jumped ship, but he turned the corner mid-summer and hasn't looked back. $4.6M son of Galileo wants good ground and will get it, O'Brien the Elder's only entry on the day. What if he keeps getting better? #6- Berkshire Rocco (30-1) is very interesting to me. Just missed in the St. Leger last season, and was progressive as a 2yo, then again as a 3yo. Prepped for this with a second-place finish in $1M Qatar 12F race. Ignore at your peril.
EX- 5,8/5,7,8,9 W/P- 6
Race 9- 1m2f Dubai World Cup (Group 1) (Dirt) (3yo+)
Rooting for #6- Hypothetical (12-1) but he may not be up to this task. Throwing out the favorite hoping for a price play.
Good luck if you play! Fox Sports 2 & 1 have the races on TV, and I suspect America's Day At The Races will as well on livestream.
Post by spiderjohn on Mar 26, 2021 11:56:27 GMT -5
Always enjoy reading 10f's analyses---a lot to like and agree with......
race 1 Arabians???
race 2 #8 MIDNIGHT SANDS is 7---6-1-0 on this surface though he couldn't beat 3rd-stringers in the US. Handled by a hot trainer, and bred by my Royal Ascot friends. Will be hammered at the windows, particularly over here...#5 DIEU DU VIN ships in and gets Frankie D--#11 ROMAN ROSSO gets R Moore upgrade after facing very strong fields there(has never won on the surface).
race 3 Can't disagree abut the chances of #8 SPANISH MISSION on a firm surface at the distance. #7 SECRET ADVISOR will be the home team chalk, is 2 for 2 here, and is Appleby/Buick. What's not to like? #3 GLOBAL HEAT is the "other" Godolphin + Dettori and is usually close. #11 SUBJECTIVIST is popular and coming off an impressive win, though he seems to prefer more give in the ground.
race 4 Very interesting race---#8 SPACE BLUES' #s are stratospheric, yet he has never won on the surface or the shorter distance + he will be pounded at the windows. #2 EXTRAVAGANT KID is the steam talk, though he honestly hasn't won in quite a while. Plenty of others that are interesting.....#1 EQUILATERAL seems to be in good form with Dettori, though stretching out. #6 MOTAFAAWIT is from a hot barn and competitive on the course at the distance. Could #13 COWAN actually win a race, especially from the rail?
race 5 #13 MNASEK is Watson again(he may have a big day) and seems in good form on this surface. #6 MOUHEEB is a head short of being perfect going shorter. #8 PANADOL--speaks for himself---and #4 FRANCE GO DE INA looks serious with Rosario. Wild card is #10 REBEL'S ROMANCE stretching for Appleby/Buick.
race 6 #2 CANVASSED is the steam runner on the surface @ 10-1(?). #4 GOOD EFFORT just missed vs above and holds Dettori. #8 MATERA SKY ships in and is usually close. Would love to see #13 YAUPON return wiring this group.
race 7 #1 AL SUHAIL returns 2nd off the break vs the amazingly hot #9 LORD GLITTERS. Can improve based on back class. Gosden/Dettori #10 LORD NORTH will be very popular and is 50% win.
race 8 All I hear is #9 CHRONO GENESIS....Is she good enough?? #5 WALTON STREET Appleby/Buick is on a tear IF he can continue....#7 MISHRIFF returns to turf where he i 4 of 7 but no runs on this surface. Don't really care for #8 MOGUL or #1 CHANNEL MAKER--so.....
race 9 I know nothing about #11 SALUTE THE SOLDIER other than he is competitive at this distance on this surface and wins often. Betting against a runner named JESUS' TEAM doesn't seem to be a good idea....Everyone is all over #10 MYSTIC GUIDE and #9 MILITARY LAW, however they don't have to win. Could see #6 HYPOTHETICAL or #3 CHUWA WIZARD showing up also. I am not in love with the US shippers though I would love to see the owners take the purse $$$ in any/all of these races.
I am in Spring Texas for my granddaughter's amazing wedding, and can't wager or possibly even watch--so why am I doing this? Pretty cool old trinket town, where the weekend highlight is a HORROR festival featuring the killer star of Texas Chainsaw Massacre(which I have never seen + no desire). Should be some interesting characters in town...
Last Edit: Mar 26, 2021 15:19:07 GMT -5 by spiderjohn
Post by tenfurlongs on Mar 27, 2021 9:01:04 GMT -5
The commingled pools from around the world are creating unusual market inefficiencies right now in Dubai. I believe that all the money from Hong Kong, where horse race betting is incredibly popular, is causing PLACE pool prices to be way out of whack with win and show. HK bettors are used to "place" paying out the top three finishers, which is our "show" wager. Check the pools just before each race; you can make a killing right now.
Post by tenfurlongs on Mar 27, 2021 9:27:04 GMT -5
Hi George, the PLACE pools are where you should be looking for wagers. In the UAE Derby, Panadol was 5-2 in the win pool, and paid $17.60 to PLACE. Just in case other bettors don't catch on right away. Obviously you have to use the correct horse, but I'm throwing a few dollars to place on every contender in the top half of the field which has a skewed win vs. place pool.
I agree—I just “broke through” the Texas wagering restrictions and finally made a play..... couldn’t get through location services on an iPhone.... tried my wife’s laptop turning off location services and snuck in in time to make a little on the last exacta.
Place seems the play today unless chalk shows up....
Must be the Hong Kong yen lol Haven’t noticed until now whether their runners are over-played...
And incredibly nice——tris and p3s gave a $.50 minimum, so spreading and ALL becomes a possibility!
Last Edit: Mar 27, 2021 9:29:53 GMT -5 by spiderjohn