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Post by tenfurlongs on Feb 22, 2021 8:29:46 GMT -5
www.racingpost.com/racecards/1231/meydan/2021-02-25/779005/R2- 1m1f (Handicap) (Turf) (3yo+ 90-100)R3- 1m Meydan Classic (Listed Race) (Turf) (3yo)R4- 1m6f Nad Al Sheba Trophy (Group 3) (Turf) (3yo+)R5- 1m2f Dubai Millennium Stakes (Group 3) (Turf) (3yo+)R6- 7f Meydan Challenge (Listed Handicap) (Turf) (3yo+ 90-106)
TW
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Post by tenfurlongs on Feb 23, 2021 16:13:40 GMT -5
FWIW, because somebody asked me, here's what I look at when handicapping overseas racing.
Form, distance and class.
Form- Returning from a four month layoff, got nosed for the win in a good handicap (note purse $) over today's track. Three races prior were a win, a third, and a fifth in the 27-horse Cambridgeshire H. This horse is showing good form.
Distance- Has been campaigned as a miler, and was stretched out to 9F for final 2020 start, where he ran admirably despite fifth-place finish (ClassRating- 120//RaceRating- 117. Think of CR as performance figure, RR as strength of field).
Class- Was slowly moved up in class and handled the jumps each time, suggesting that he may have more to give (Class 6 is lowest, Class 1 is Listed/Graded Stakes races).
Arc.
Classy young horses with less than ten starts or so will often have an upward arc, or progressive form, where they improve their CR/RR with each start. Dubai Mirage exhibits this feature nicely with his starts as a 3yo. After easily disposing with CL5 AW opponents at Kempton Park, he returned six days later and the soft turf at Royal Ascot appeared to be his undoing, but he still posted CR/RR of 116/116. From there, his arc looks like:
121/115 118/116 120/117
Each time he was moved into better company, he responded with a good performance. Also, as you will discover quite quickly, horses with CR of 120+ are stakes quality animals. The best horses get 123-125 CRs.
So what might one expect from Dubai Mirage today in this HCP $65,000 1 1/8mi. turf race? The one time he ran at 9F he could only manage fifth, but that was against older horses in a field of 27. His CR/RR came back 120/117, so while there should be a ? in your mind about today's stretchout, he didn't fail miserably and his breeding (Dubawi) suggests he should handle it.
Verdict: He's in form, handled the surface last time, the distance is suitable but not certain, and he stays at the level (based on purse) of his last race. With a race under his belt, he is eligible to continue his progressive form as a 4yo for a bit longer. One negative is his 7/1-2-2 turf record when considering whether to use him on top. Without analyzing the rest of the field, 5-1 m/l sounds about right from an odds perspective, although Frankie Dettori riding for Godolphin always drops the price somewhat. Taking a positive view and expect him to be close at the finish.
Comments welcomed.
TW
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Post by cherokeescot on Feb 23, 2021 16:20:55 GMT -5
Tom, do you pay for the Brisnet International PPs ?
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Post by tenfurlongs on Feb 23, 2021 16:31:10 GMT -5
International PPs are always free, but you need to have an account with Brisnet. Also, you can download US tracks and as long as you make a wager through your twinspires.com account, those PPs are free too. I haven't paid for a single card in years.
TW
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Post by maclr11 on Feb 24, 2021 11:14:23 GMT -5
The 4th and 5th are the two races that might be preps for World Cup night but the horse I'm excited to see is Master of the Seas in the third. This is obviously a prep but he was impressive winning a Group 2 at Newmarket and ran a rank 4th in the Vincent O'Brien. You can get him at 14 or 16/1 right now depending on the book for the Guineas. Would think they head that way with him, but I guess there's a chance he might try the dirt in the UAE Derby first, but I personally doubt it. This is the last 3yo turf race of the meet though in Dubai.
In the City of Gold prep the 4th. I don't think Ispolini is the same horse as when he won the race in 2019. Let me try Brilliant Light at a bigger price and hope the extra 1/4 mile helps.
The Millennium, which almost has to be won by Godolphin makes me look at Star Safari an extra time or two. This is the first time in four campaigns he's going to make 3 starts in a form cycle, which could be a sign he's finally somewhat healthy because he obviously has the talent.
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Post by cherokeescot on Feb 24, 2021 15:26:00 GMT -5
Nice write up , Keith 😉
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Post by tenfurlongs on Feb 24, 2021 16:53:45 GMT -5
The 4th and 5th are the two races that might be preps for World Cup night but the horse I'm excited to see is Master of the Seas in the third. This is obviously a prep but he was impressive winning a Group 2 at Newmarket and ran a rank 4th in the Vincent O'Brien. You can get him at 14 or 16/1 right now depending on the book for the Guineas. Would think they head that way with him, but I guess there's a chance he might try the dirt in the UAE Derby first, but I personally doubt it. This is the last 3yo turf race of the meet though in Dubai. In the City of Gold prep the 4th. I don't think Ispolini is the same horse as when he won the race in 2019. Let me try Brilliant Light at a bigger price and hope the extra 1/4 mile helps. The Millennium, which almost has to be won by Godolphin makes me look at Star Safari an extra time or two. This is the first time in four campaigns he's going to make 3 starts in a form cycle, which could be a sign he's finally somewhat healthy because he obviously has the talent.
Hey Rob! I also thought very highly of Master of the Seas following his win at Newmarket. He ran okay in the National Stakes, but Buick asked him for his best a long way from the finish and he hit the front too soon IMO. St. Mark's Basilica, Wembley, and Thunder Moon ran 1-2-3 again in the Dewhurst, which settled the 2yo picture in my mind (explain to me again how Van Gogh was named Champion?), and I was surprised that Master of the Seas didn't contest that race. I don't remember hearing about any injuries or illness. I'm scratching my head trying to figure out his options following this race. He's not nominated to any race on the World Cup card. Maybe he overwintered nicely, and they're just getting him started with one here before heading back to England. Good to see him back on a race course. Thanks for posting! TW
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1hooper
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Post by 1hooper on Feb 24, 2021 17:05:07 GMT -5
Sky Sports.
Master Of The Seas limbers up for a potential tilt at the 2000 Guineas in the Meydan Classic in Dubai on Thursday. The son of Dubawi looked a top-class colt in the making after winning on his first two career starts at Newmarket last summer, including a Group Two success in the Superlative Stakes in July. Charlie Appleby's charge, who was last seen finishing a close-up fourth in the National Stakes at the Curragh in September, is a best-priced 16-1 for the first British Classic of the year at Newmarket in May ahead of facing five rivals at Listed level at Meydan.
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eye123
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Post by eye123 on Feb 24, 2021 17:23:31 GMT -5
Nice write up , Keith 😉 Nice write up Rob !
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Post by tenfurlongs on Feb 24, 2021 17:58:21 GMT -5
R2 (10:05am EST)- 1m1f (Handicap) (Turf) (3yo+ 90-100)
Really would like to put #11- Prompting (7-1) on top, but not sure that he wants 9F (sire Bated Breath). Showed progressive turf form in GB last summer as a 4yo, then went to the shelf until reappearing here in a minor non-Carnival handicap 12 days ago, finishing an okay fourth. #3- Dubai Mirage (5-1) (see post above) is also questionable at 9F, but I'll hope his sire (Dubawi) sees him through. Also a progressive 3yo last summer. #9- Ya Hayati (5-2) should have been an easy selection last time in the Zabeel Turf, but you needed to draws lines through his soft turf Royal Ascot start, and his disastrous dirt attempt in Dubai last year. Turns back in distance, drops in class a bit, looks to be the most likely winner from post five. #2- Bright Melody (4-1) is yet another for Godolphin, was second behind Ya Hayati in the Zabeel. Has never really progressed much since GIII AW third last June, probably wants a bit more distance as well. I liked #10- Recordman (12-1) at a price last time, and will use him underneath again despite his wide draw.
EX- 3,9/2,3,9,10,11
R3 (10:40am EST)- 1m Meydan Classic (Listed Race) (Turf) (3yo)
#2- Master of the Seas (1-2) returns to action in this Listed affair and outclasses them all on paper. Will try cheap triples with ALL for third, hoping that Nibras Passion or especially Sharp Spun (FTT) wake up today.
TRI- 2/4/All
R4 (11:15am EST)- 1m6f Nad Al Sheba Trophy (Group 3) (Turf) (3yo+)
Not the strongest GIII you'll ever encounter. #1- Away He Goes (5-2) had an upward arc all season as a 4yo, continued his good form with a third and second in two starts at the Carnival. Tries the St. Leger distance for the first time, should handle it okay on breeding, Crowley in the irons. #8- Brilliant Light (8-1) was just behind Away He Goes last time, should relish the stretch out. Has been sneaky-progressive throughout his six career starts, can shine today. #4- Ispolini (5-2) is just not the same horse he was as a 4yo. Playing against.
WIN- 8 EX- 1,8/1,3,6,8
R5 (11:50am EST)- 1m2f Dubai Millennium Stakes (Group 3) (Turf) (3yo+)
And I thought the last GIII was weak. I can't even find a third horse in here. #1- Bedouin's Story (3-1) by default, maybe Frankie can drag him the last 100 meters. #8- Star Safari (2-1) will survive the trip, but he's been handled like a carton of raw eggs on a trampoline (very carefully).
EXBOX- 1,8
R6 (12:25pm EST)- 7f Meydan Challenge (Listed Handicap) (Turf) (3yo+ 90-106)
Arguably the best betting race on the card, fourteen handicappers going 7F. No standouts in here. #1- Well of Wisdom (7-2) had a fine 3yo campaign with three victories, including one locally. Off since August, first time gelding. Draws wide, today may be the day to bet against. #2- Could Be King (6-1) is a consistent sort, likes the distance, ran a close-up fifth to Land of Legends in a GII here, then last time dropped back to 6F and was fourth behind Man of Promise. Dialed in for best effort today, if he's good enough. #3- Escobar (10-1) has been facing better company, think he's a bit better at today's distance, could hit the board at a price. #5- Fleeting Prince (5-1) is a nibbler, always there or thereabouts, hopefully drifts up from puzzlingly low m/l odds. #7- Light and Dark (12-1) is a lightly-raced Godolphin 5yo which ran well in two starts last term. Showed some promise as a 3yo, hoping he can put it all together today. #9- Mutamaasik (6-1) had a forgettable 4yo season despite a good Royal Ascot effort. There's a good horse in him just waiting to burst out. Had his prep against Bedouin's Story at a mile, drops back to best distance and gets Crowley in the irons again. All systems go. #13- Zainhom (10-1) doesn't win much, but is usually around at the finish. Draws wide but will use underneath just in case today is peak Zainhom-ness.
EX- 2,9/2,3,5,7,9,13
Good luck if you play!
TW
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Post by 1hooper on Feb 24, 2021 21:58:21 GMT -5
10:05 to 12:25. Right in my wheelhouse. Jockey colony a bit light for this card.
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Post by tenfurlongs on Feb 25, 2021 6:59:28 GMT -5
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Post by Badactor on Feb 25, 2021 7:37:44 GMT -5
3 for 3.
Perhaps.
We'll see. If not all three,
then two will do. Now, here it is...
a musical clue: Good Luck!
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5wide
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Post by 5wide on Feb 25, 2021 8:36:29 GMT -5
r2- #6 Gabr, ran well when back on turf for his second start of the year. Looking for more improvement and will take a punt at 12/1
#6 wp
ex 6/2,3,9 2,3,9/6
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Post by 5wide on Feb 25, 2021 8:50:51 GMT -5
r3-4
will do a double #2 master of the seas / #6 Volcanic sky , #8 Brilliant Light. Brillant light , light raced , open for improvement, should relish the extra distance. w/p.
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5wide
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Post by 5wide on Feb 25, 2021 8:56:56 GMT -5
r5
double #2 Master of the seas / #8 star safari
I doubt that Bedouin's story will stay the trip.
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5wide
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Post by 5wide on Feb 25, 2021 9:26:59 GMT -5
r6
hopefully this race will be bet on winnings . Spreading wide and shunning the newly gelded Well of Wisdom.
ex box 3,5,7,9,13
#13 w/p
Good Luck everyone. Thanks for the write ups Tom.
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Post by tenfurlongs on Feb 25, 2021 9:40:11 GMT -5
3 for 3.
Perhaps.
We'll see. If not all three,
then two will do. Now, here it is...
a musical clue: Good Luck!
I like #12- Aydon Castle (20-1) as a longshot for third in Race 2, Dell. Horse doesn't want to win, but has run consistently well in alw company in France, not the worst stab. 40-1 in Europe right now. {EDIT: opened up at 7-1 on twinspires. Dell must've gone heavy...lol.} TW
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Post by tenfurlongs on Feb 25, 2021 10:04:27 GMT -5
TW
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Post by tenfurlongs on Feb 25, 2021 10:15:56 GMT -5
R2 (10:05am EST)- 1m1f (Handicap) (Turf) (3yo+ 90-100) Really would like to put #11- Prompting (7-1) on top, but not sure that he wants 9F (sire Bated Breath). Showed progressive turf form in GB last summer as a 4yo, then went to the shelf until reappearing here in a minor non-Carnival handicap 12 days ago, finishing an okay fourth. #3- Dubai Mirage (5-1) (see post above) is also questionable at 9F, but I'll hope his sire (Dubawi) sees him through. Also a progressive 3yo last summer. #9- Ya Hayati (5-2) should have been an easy selection last time in the Zabeel Turf, but you needed to draws lines through his soft turf Royal Ascot start, and his disastrous dirt attempt in Dubai last year. Turns back in distance, drops in class a bit, looks to be the most likely winner from post five. #2- Bright Melody (4-1) is yet another for Godolphin, was second behind Ya Hayati in the Zabeel. Has never really progressed much since GIII AW third last June, probably wants a bit more distance as well. I liked #10- Recordman (12-1) at a price last time, and will use him underneath again despite his wide draw. EX- 3,9/2,3,9,10,11 Result: 2,3,11 Bright Melody (9-2) clearly benefited from his first start since July last time, was forwardly placed behind a slow pace, made the first jump in the stretch and was well clear at the line. Never doubt a Dubawi in good form. R3 (10:40am EST)- 1m Meydan Classic (Listed Race) (Turf) (3yo) #2- Master of the Seas (1-2) returns to action in this Listed affair and outclasses them all on paper. Will try cheap triples with ALL for third, hoping that Nibras Passion or especially Sharp Spun (FTT) wake up today. TRI- 2/4/All Result: 4,2,1 Naval Crown (3-1) set a moderate pace in front of his stablemate and had plenty left to hold off odds-on Master of the Seas, which was rank early once again. Good late run to close the gap but will need to learn to settle going forward.R4 (11:15am EST)- 1m6f Nad Al Sheba Trophy (Group 3) (Turf) (3yo+) Not the strongest GIII you'll ever encounter. #1- Away He Goes (5-2) had an upward arc all season as a 4yo, continued his good form with a third and second in two starts at the Carnival. Tries the St. Leger distance for the first time, should handle it okay on breeding, Crowley in the irons. #8- Brilliant Light (8-1) was just behind Away He Goes last time, should relish the stretch out. Has been sneaky-progressive throughout his six career starts, can shine today. #4- Ispolini (5-2) is just not the same horse he was as a 4yo. Playing against. WIN- 8 EX- 1,8/1,3,6,8 Result: 6,3,8 Saeed bin Suroor trained the first three finishers, which were pretty even on the line; Godolphin owned the first four finishers (yawn). Frankie Dettori found himself on the lead suddenly turning for home but the proven stayer Volcanic Sky (7-5) had enough to hold off his stablemates. Away He Goes just ran okay, maybe 12F is his limit. Jury is still out on Brilliant Light, but he ran well in defeat. Runner-up Global Heat very nearly got there firing up the rail, was in front two jumps past the wire. Very consistent sort, interesting pedigree, he could be a force in the 14F-16F ranks this season. R5 (11:50am EST)- 1m2f Dubai Millennium Stakes (Group 3) (Turf) (3yo+) And I thought the last GIII was weak. I can't even find a third horse in here. #1- Bedouin's Story (3-1) by default, maybe Frankie can drag him the last 100 meters. #8- Star Safari (2-1) will survive the trip, but he's been handled like a carton of raw eggs on a trampoline (very carefully). EXBOX- 1,8 No bets. Result: 8,1,3 As expected.R6 (12:25pm EST)- 7f Meydan Challenge (Listed Handicap) (Turf) (3yo+ 90-106) Arguably the best betting race on the card, fourteen handicappers going 7F. No standouts in here. #1- Well of Wisdom (7-2) had a fine 3yo campaign with three victories, including one locally. Off since August, first time gelding. Draws wide, today may be the day to bet against. #2- Could Be King (6-1) is a consistent sort, likes the distance, ran a close-up fifth to Land of Legends in a GII here, then last time dropped back to 6F and was fourth behind Man of Promise. Dialed in for best effort today, if he's good enough. #3- Escobar (10-1) has been facing better company, think he's a bit better at today's distance, could hit the board at a price. #5- Fleeting Prince (5-1) is a nibbler, always there or thereabouts, hopefully drifts up from puzzlingly low m/l odds. #7- Light and Dark (12-1) is a lightly-raced Godolphin 5yo which ran well in two starts last term. Showed some promise as a 3yo, hoping he can put it all together today. #9- Mutamaasik (6-1) had a forgettable 4yo season despite a good Royal Ascot effort. There's a good horse in him just waiting to burst out. Had his prep against Bedouin's Story at a mile, drops back to best distance and gets Crowley in the irons again. All systems go. #13- Zainhom (10-1) doesn't win much, but is usually around at the finish. Draws wide but will use underneath just in case today is peak Zainhom-ness. EX- 2,9/2,3,5,7,9,13 Result: 13,12,14 Wide draw, no problem. Peak Zainhom! (12-1) Much the best today, couldn't have expected that run. Wasim, under Dell's jock-of-the-day Fernando Jara (remember him?), was always prominent and ran through the wire for second.
Good luck if you play! TW
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1hooper
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Post by 1hooper on Feb 25, 2021 10:38:20 GMT -5
The turf appears much longer today. 6 inches deep?
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5wide
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Post by 5wide on Feb 25, 2021 10:44:14 GMT -5
Second string day today ? Wish I had seen the memo.
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1hooper
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Post by 1hooper on Feb 25, 2021 10:44:47 GMT -5
Fave fought the jockey. Never good.
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5wide
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Post by 5wide on Feb 25, 2021 11:58:08 GMT -5
Red Board, after Master of the seas drowned, I did a backup double on Volcanic Sky and Star Safari. So now i'm even going into the last race.
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Post by Badactor on Feb 25, 2021 12:12:25 GMT -5
The Jara..., the Jara.
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5wide
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Post by 5wide on Feb 25, 2021 13:02:16 GMT -5
r6 hopefully this race will be bet on winnings . Spreading wide and shunning the newly gelded Well of Wisdom. ex box 3,5,7,9,13 #13 w/p Good Luck everyone. Thanks for the write ups Tom. Nice payment on Zainhome made my day ! Now to blow it all on Aqu and GP.
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Post by tenfurlongs on Feb 25, 2021 13:12:03 GMT -5
r6 hopefully this race will be bet on winnings . Spreading wide and shunning the newly gelded Well of Wisdom. ex box 3,5,7,9,13 #13 w/p Good Luck everyone. Thanks for the write ups Tom. Nice payment on Zainhome made my day ! Now to blow it all on Aqu and GP. Nice job picking Zainhom out of that bunch! No more Thursdays at the Carnival. Super Saturday is March 6th, and the World Cup card is three weeks after. ZAINHOM- $27.60 $16.80 TW
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