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Post by tenfurlongs on Feb 6, 2021 9:22:26 GMT -5
Great betting card, best in the country today (Obviously SA has a great card too, but with short fields for the stakes races.)
Race 3- MSW 3yo 6F.
#5- Harrykeepthechange (4-1) is bred to sprint, has a good series of works, Gallardo rides for Rodriguez who has gaudy FTS %s. #7- Imtakinittothebank (7-2) showed strong early speed in debut, held for third in a fast race. Result: 4,8,5 Tough Tickets ($4.00) justified the even-money status, with longshot Oh Steve rallying for second. Harrykeepthechange showed good early speed and tired in the lane, he should win soon. Imtakingittothebank is still in line for the teller.
EX- 5,7/3,4,5,7
TW
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Post by Badactor on Feb 6, 2021 9:33:52 GMT -5
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Post by tenfurlongs on Feb 6, 2021 12:58:26 GMT -5
Race 4- CLM16,000 4up 1 mi turf.
#1- Blackline (4-1) really likes the turf course here (3/2-1-0), came from far back to get the win last time under Santos, looks to have lots of speed to run at again today.
EX- 1/2,3,5 Result: 7,5,1 Silent Jet ($9.00) stole it under Leparoux through moderate early fractions, saved something for the stretch run. Blackline made his late run as usual but had too much to do in a paceless affair.
Race 5- MSW 3yo 1 mi 40 y.
Low confidence race, with many fine pedigrees on display. #5- New Dawn (7-2) debuted here in December, had an eventful start, galloped around in last and finished with interest for fourth behind a runaway winner. Should be much better today for that effort, gets lasix, stable jockey Junior Alvarado takes the controls. #8- Son of Thunder (10-1) makes initial outing for Lael/Delacour, $475K son of Uncle Mo has as steady a string of works as you could want, trainer can have them ready to win two-turns at first asking, jockey Castanon has otherworldly numbers with dirt routes.
WIN- 8 EX- 5,8/3,5,8,9 Result: 3,4,2 Looking like maybe the out-of-town stables are going to leave with all the cash today. Unbridled Honor ($4.20) was much the best for Pletcher/Velazquez (remember when they were a thing?), with Wilkes and Clement getting the minor shares. Unbridled Honor is a small colt, and he was behind a wall of horses in the stretch, but he found a hole and burst through, showing his heart. He be small but mighty.
TW
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Post by tenfurlongs on Feb 6, 2021 13:29:05 GMT -5
Race 6- ALWN1X 4up f&m 1 1/16 mi turf.
#3- Mary's France (3-1) makes second start at TAM after closing for third at a mile behind a non-existent pace, the same scenario she faced first time in the U.S. last fall at BEL. Looks to be an honest amount of pace today, expecting her to storm home through the stretch.
EX- 3/4,5,6,8 Result: 4,6,3 That's three for Johnny V. as the "other" Motion horse Dutchess of Sussex ($16.60), seemingly the pacesetter for her stablemate, wired the field under strong fractions. Did not see that coming at all.
Race 7- MSW 3yo f 6 1/2F.
Bit of a head-scratcher. Potts and Arriagada are good with FTS, Lerman has a nice looking prospect in East Wing, and Rusty Arnold doesn't send a horse to Tampa unless it is well-meant.
EXBOX- 6,8,9,11 Result: 8,11,1 Exacta- $79.60! East Wing ($8.20) indeed looks like a nice sprinter for Mr. Lerman, and somehow combined with a 5-1 runner up for an eighty dollar exacta. I'll take it.
Race 8- Tampa Bay S. (GIII) 4up 1 1/16 mi turf.
Fairly evenly matched group, with lots of early speed signed on. #2- Admission Office (6-1) is a consistent sort, battle-tested, may have needed last one off the seven-month layoff. Should save ground under Leparoux and roll through the lane. #12- Greyes Creek (4-1) has been very progressive in his four turf starts, needs to make another forward move today but looked very sharp in his last two. Interesting to see Johnny V. riding for Chad.
EX- 2,12/2,4,5,8,10,12 Result: 3,8,2 Speed is holding pretty well on the turf today. Get Smokin ($10.00) is usually on the engine, but can sit second when required and not get discouraged. Junior Alvarado rode him beautifully in that fashion, ignoring the longshot bullet and having plenty left in the stretch. Greyes Creek actually had a decent trip from the 12-hole, but wasn't good enough yet. Admissions Office stormed home on the outside under Leparoux and was in front 3-4 jumps after the wire. Bet back on a fairer course next time.
Race 9- Suncoast S. (Listed) 3yo f 1 mi 40 y.
#2- Feeling Mischief (9-2) looked special winning the 6F Sandpiper S. here, then looked ordinary when stretched out to 7F in the Gasparilla S. last month. Takes the logical next step today, maybe she ran too fast for her own good winning the sprint race. Taking a hopeful view.
EX- 2/4,8,9,10 Result: 4,8,9 Curlin's Catch ($5.60) took a lot of money and deservedly so, winning smartly over Be Sneaky, which also looks ok for Delacour/Lael Stables. I guess Feeling Mischief will return to sprint distances now.
Race 10- Endeavour S. (GIII) 4up f&m 1 1/16 mi turf.
#6- New York Girl (4-1) was highly thought of by Joseph O'Brien based on the choice of races in which she ran. Won an easy first-level Alw race at GP on NYE, hoping that today we see the form that carried her to a close fourth behind Peaceful in the Irish 1000 Guineas.
EX- 6/5,7,8 Result: 5,6,1 Two horse race and Chad/Velazquez/Klaravich favorite Counterparty Risk ($3.80) proved best, although the final time, if correct, was nothing to write home about. New York Girl was second best, didn't display much punch in the lane.
Race 11- Sam F. Davis S. (GIII) 3yo 1 1/16 mi.
Certainly not a strong renewal of the Davis. #3- Known Agenda (6-1) looks to be the right Pletcher horse, #8- Nova Rags (4-1) was solid in taking the Pasco here three weeks ago, and #10- Ricochet (10-1) has run two good route races over this course, has Castanon aboard.
EXBOX- 3,8,10
Good luck if you play.
TW
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Post by bobtailnag on Feb 6, 2021 15:54:09 GMT -5
R8 Eons 8/1 Fancy Liquor 3/1 Get Smpkin 8/1
R9 Gulf Coast 5/2 Feeling Mischief 9/2 Special Princess 8/1
R10 Counterparty Risk 5/2 Login and Reason 7/2 Irony of Reality 8/1
R11 Candy Man Rocket 10/1 Known Agenda 6/1 Smiley Sobotka 3/1
Kinda rushed this one which means I actuallt might have a winner in here somewhere.
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Post by tenfurlongs on Feb 6, 2021 17:25:19 GMT -5
R8 Eons 8/1 Fancy Liquor 3/1 Get Smpkin 8/1 R9 Gulf Coast 5/2 Feeling Mischief 9/2 Special Princess 8/1 R10 Counterparty Risk 5/2 Login and Reason 7/2 Irony of Reality 8/1 R11 Candy Man Rocket 10/1 Known Agenda 6/1 Smiley Sobotka 3/1 Kinda rushed this one which means I actuallt might have a winner in here somewhere. You had the last two winners, but I really hope you boxed your picks in Race 8. Exacta came back $150.80 !! Nice work. TW |
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