British Champions Day- Ascot 10/17

[tenfurlongs]

Entries: 

www.racingpost.com/racecards/2/ascot/2020-10-17

News and analysis:

ascot.attheraces.com/

TV coverage on Fox Sports 2.

www.bloodhorse.com/horse-racing/articles/244112/fs2-plans-coverage-of-british-champions-day

TW

[1hooper]

Good to see Hollie Doyle get 5 mounts on the day. Her boyfriend Tom Marquand is also riding vs her in those races. Little bit of household competition I'm guessing.

[tenfurlongs]

I think she'll have every chance on Dame Malliot in the Fillies & Mares, Hoop. Without Tarnawa in the field it is wide open, so if she can reproduce her seasonal debut effort at Newmarket she can be right there.

Princess Of Wales's Tattersalls Stakes (Group 2)

What is the word on Spanish Mission? He looks like he's got a shot at a placing.

TW

[1hooper]

TW,boss doesn't want to face Stradivarius again. "I've seen this movie". New trainer Balding wants to run,will walk the course Friday,and give his impression of the ground to the boss. I'd say less than 50-50 he runs but I'll let you know tomorrow when I hear.

[tenfurlongs]

Thanks Hoop.

Free Ascot Equibase PPs from Penn Gaming- Hollywood Races:

drive.google.com/file/d/14Rezw_hqqQ3cLglPFnvrPZErS4_0wrcW/view

TW

[tenfurlongs]

TW

[Badactor]

Hollywood Handicapping Report.

...picking winners across the globe!

Race 1 STRADIVARIUS @ 4/5 is an exquisite instrument.

However, I'm looking to play the right tune with a good beat:

SEARCH FOR A SONG @ 5-1

Race 2 This pick comes straight from "The Dude" in Hollywood.

@ 10-1, this super-secret-selection could build Bridges to success.

Race 3 "There is nothin' like a Dame" ...even so, I'm Keane on another.

Race 4 Bad movie... good horse @ 9-2... according to my Handicaprioing.

Race 5 Samuel L Jackson fans may try to snake past the favorites @ a price.

Race 6 The Moore You Know...

It was in 1804 when Keats’ father, Thomas, was trampled by a horse.

Keats was only eight years old at the time. His father had worked as a stable-keeper.

"There is nothing stable in the world; uproar's your only music." ~ John Keats

[tenfurlongs]

Ascot R1 (8:20)- 2m (1m7f209y) British Champions Long Distance Cup (Group 2) (British Champions Series) (Class 1) (3yo+)

Winning chance: 2,7

Stradivarius draws the rail with PP1, Fujaira Prince draws widest in PP13. #2- Fujaira Prince (8-1) lightly-raced 6yo has never missed the frame in nine career starts. Won impressively on seasonal debut here going 14F, then took the Ebor at York over soft ground. Second to repeat winner Search for A Song in the Irish St. Leger when put into the race a long ways from home, something Atzeni would like to avoid today. Perhaps Max Vega will go to the front with Sovereign and string them out just a bit, something Dettori wouldn't mind either as he tries to get to the outside turning for home from his rail draw. #7- Stradivarius (4-5)  is the dominant stayer in the UK, has three consecutive Ascot Gold Cups so likes the course, but wouldn't want to see any more rain before the race. Tried at 12F this season but just doesn't have the same burst going shorter. He likes to outlast everyone else and kicks into gear late. Frankie Dettori will need to use all of his skills to get to where he needs to be turning in, which is in the 2-3 path with room to his outside. Not a slam dunk in my opinion. I'm betting against #11- Search for A Song (5-1) which is unproven over testing ground. If she handles it, then everyone else is probably in trouble. #4- Morando (15-1) has the distance question, hasn't quite been the same horse this season but ran some big efforts last year. #6- Spanish Mission (15-1) has won his last two by open lengths since moving to new yard. Should have another good effort in him and Buick stays.

Can get a placing: 4,6 

Longshot: 8

Bet: TRI- 7/2,4,6/2,4,6,8  EX saver- 2/4,6,7  PL- 8

Ascot R2 (8:55)- 6f British Champions Sprint Stakes (Group 1) (British Champions Series) (Class 1) (3yo+)

Winning chance: 4,10,14

#4- Dream of Dreams (8-5) likely favorite has had only three runs this year; head loss in GI at Royal Ascot, followed by two impressive wins at Newbury and Haydock (Sprint Cup-GI). Handles soft ground. #10- Art Power (12-1) improving 3yo burst onto the scene at York last fall and reeled off four in a row until meeting his match in the Nunthorpe-GI in August. Finished fourth behind Dream of Dreams last time, needs to find one more forward move. Soft is fine for him too. #14- One Master (5-1) 6yo mare continues to run big races, is probably best at 7F, but was second in this event over heavy ground last term. Stamina should not be an issue. #5- Glen Shiel (10-1) top-notch handicapper on both AW and turf, ran career best when second to Dream of Dreams last out, should race prominently. #6- Happy Power (20-1) has won three straight going 7F, including career best in a GII last week at Newmarket. DeSousa gives up the mount to ride Art Power, Jamie Doyle will do.

Can get a placing: 5,6

Longshot: 2

Bet: EX- 4,14/4,5,6,10,14  PL- 2

Ascot R3 (9:30)- 1m4f (1m3f211y) British Champions Fillies & Mares Stakes (Group 1) (British Champions Series) (Class 1) (3yo+)

Winning chance: 1,2,4,6

#1- Antonia De Vega (9-2) is five-for-eight lifetime, two-for-two this year. Ran career best when beating Alpinista in GIII at Newmarket. Gets tested for class today. #2- Dame Malliot (4-1) beat the boys on seasonal bow at Newmarket over soft going. Close-up third to Tarnawa in GI at Longchamp; that one was ruled out of this over ground concerns. 4yo daughter of Champs Elysees (my favorite sire) should have every chance under Hollie Doyle. #4- Mehdaayih (15-1) only went to post once this year, ran an okay sixth to Lord North in the Prince of Wales's (GI) at Royal Ascot. Ran fifth to Magical in Middle Distance (GI) here last year. Complete unknown on current form, Dettori aboard will suppress the price. #6- Even So (5-1) progressive 3yo filly was right behind Dame Malliot at Longchamp, beat Passion and Laburnum in two before that. Expecting another big effort today. #9- Laburnum (15-1) has finished behind several of these, may be destined to minor award again. #10- Passion (15-1) see #9. #12- Wonderful Tonight (7-2) progressive 3yo filly won 14F GI at Longchamp two weeks ago over heavy ground. The deeper the ground the better for her.

Can get a placing: 9,10,12

Longshot: 5

Bet:  EX- 2,6/1,2,4,6,12

Ascot R4 (10:05)- 1m (Str) Queen Elizabeth II Stakes (Group 1) (British Champions Mile) (Class 1) (3yo+)

Winning chance: 9,11,12

#9- The Revenant (9-2) 5yo son of Dubawi is 12/9-2-1 lifetime. Came to prominence with big win in Wildenstein (GII) at Longchamp last fall on the Arc undercard, then finished second in this event with a similar effort. Only race this term was another win in the Wildenstein, over heavy ground two weeks ago. Talent is there, needs to bring it again on short notice. #11- Nazeef (12-1) 4yo filly is 10/7-0-2 lifetime, ran her career best taking the Sun Chariot S. (GI) at Newmarket fourteen days ago. Handles soft ground, needs to find a bit more if stablemate fires. #12- Palace Pier (3-5) 3yo son of Kingman is undefeated in five starts. Defeated elders last out in Le Marois (GI) over heavy ground, including Circus Maximus. Spacing of his efforts this term suggest he may go again if successful here. Dettori needed a new star anyways, lol. #1- Century Dream (15-1) could only mange seventh in this race last year, but his big GII win at Goodwood over soft would put him right there. #2- Circus Maximus (10-1) O'Brien the Elder usually walks away with a win or two on days like this with his Galileos, but thus far through the card he is the one looking up. This one is a fine miler, but seems to just be tailing off a bit. #6- Lord Glitters (15-1) just when you want to give him the gold watch, shake his hand, and wish him well in retirement, he pulls out a huge win (2019 Queen Anne S.- GI). It seems clear that they've pointed to this all season, turn back in distance to a mile at Ascot (8/2-3-0) could bring out one more hurrah. #14- Veracious (20-1) has beaten One Master, also finished fourth in this event last season. Could light up the tote.

Can get a placing: 1,2,6,14

Longshot: 6,14

Bet: EX- 9,12/1,2,6,9,11,12  PL- 14

TW

[1hooper]

TW,check your e-mail.

[spiderjohn]

Not the most enticing of race cards for a Champions day,as the BC lull before whatever continues....
But a great way to start a chilly morning

1--8:20

Not many of these seem to handle the step up in class to G1, though maybe the best opportunity to challenge the distance champ after two less than stellar efforts. Probably the finale for #7 STRADIVARIUS, who definitely deserves his accolades. I was fortunate to witness two of his 2 mile Royal Ascot victories. I also agree that #2 FUJAIRA PRINCE is the most likely to knock off the chalk. Very consistent, with a recent strong effort on soft vs. a class runner not in this field. On paper, #11 SEARCH FOR A SONG makes a case, and retaining Buick on #6 SPANISH MISSION is a plus(though he has to take a mount for the purse). If the chalk loses, #2 is probably the one to get it done, with one of the obvious above finishing 2nd. ALL for 3rd.

2/6-7-11/ALL
2-7/2-7/ALL

----------------------------------

good looking group on the track--#7 looks the part------hopefully #2 still has a race left after a long campaign travelling and always around at the finish.....current odds may indicate otherwise

[tenfurlongs]

Ascot R5 (10:40)- 1m2f (1m1f212y) Champion Stakes (British Champions Middle Distance) (Group 1) (Class 1) (3yo+)

Winning chance: 5,8

#5- Lord North (6-1) beat Elarqam to start the year at Haydock, then romped at Royal Ascot in the Prince of Wales's S. (GI) beating Addeybb among others. Lat out was third behind Ghaiyyath and Magical in the Juddmonte (GI), and there's no shame in that. He's at the top of his game, handles heavy ground, Gosden/Doyle at the controls. #8- Magical (9-5) career record 25/12-7-0. Missed the exacta once in her last ten, that in last year's Arc, finishing behind winner Waldgeist, runner-up Enable (two Arc wins), and Sottsass (2020 Arc winner). 10F is her game anyways, not 12F, and she won this by 3/4 L over Addeybb last year. Unlikely Aidan goes away empty handed today. #1- Addeybb (5-1) has only been beaten by Lord North, Magical and Elarqam in his last eight races. Unfortunately, two of them are in this field. Will be right there at the line. #7- Skalleti (8-1) French raider is equally adept at 8F & 10F, beat Arc-winner Sottsass at Deauville in August. Last out was a repeat in the Prix Dollar (GII) at Longchamp, handles all ground and will take a lot of play. #9- Mishriff (3-1) 3yo colt is on a progressive arc, winning twice in France against 3yos. Faces older for the first time, Gosden/Dettori in charge of this mount.

Can get a placing: 1,7,9

Longshot: 10

Bet: EX- 5,8/1,5,7,8,9

TW

[spiderjohn]

Big win for Ms.Doyle(now 3 for 3 on this runner), drawing away easily. Not much else outside of a last out win to indicate the effort. #11 closed well for 2nd, and #2 chased throughout and faded to 3rd. No real sign of #7 at any time. Hate to see the champ go out this way.....

2--8:55

Looking at 3 possibles for the top spot-----leaning towards #14 ONE MASTER to keep it going, along with #6 HAPPY POWER and #10 ART POWER. Those three on top, with 2-4-9-13 added underneath for a shotgun exacta part wheel.

[tenfurlongs]

Wasn't able to bet through twinspires, not sure what that is about. Had to go through Xpressbet/1ST account, but got shutout, which wasn't a bad thing as it turned out. Would have had the Hollie Doyle-ridden winner to place, but otherwise nada. Good for her winning on the big day, Marquand had better win one too now...lol.

TW

[1hooper]

That's my girl!

[Badactor]

[spiderjohn]

same here with Twinspires--moving slowly but up and running now.
Wouldn't have had either runner in the photo, just missing with the 3ed-4th runners, so all good so far on the $$ end

3--9:30
Not in love with anything here, or the rest of the card. #12 WONDERFUL TONIGHT was ultra impressive, drawing off in France. If she holds form, she wins. Probably at less than 7-2.
xboxing 1-2-7-9-12
maybe 12 win pending odds

[Badactor]

[spiderjohn]

score one for our side after the windows finally open. Easy win short exacta

4--10:05
I also like #9 THE REVENANT. Have to respect Dettori on the unchallenged as of yet #12 PALACE PIER.
9 WIN
XBOXING 2-5-9-11-12

over and out

good luck today!

[Badactor]

[tenfurlongs]

R4- last minute bomber exacta box- 1,6,7,11

TW

[gam]

Nice call, Tom. Bummer the wrong longshot ran second.

[tenfurlongs]

Thanks George, I did use the runner-up in a last minute exacta, but without the winner.

Trying another late zig-zag with EX- 7/1,5,8,9,11. Favorites just aren't running to form today, and the ground seems to be hampering many runners. Skalleti has run in bogs for most of his career, so why not?

TW

[spiderjohn]

Haven’t left yet——-Going to try one more

Wide open very competitive race.
#1 #9 to win
Xbox 1-7-9-19-11 prayer box

Once again good luck!

[Badactor]

[tenfurlongs]

Nice one Spider! Addeybb just loves the off going. Marquand can breathe a sigh of relief now...lol.

TW

[tenfurlongs]

In the Balmoral Handicap, I'll box five in an exacta that can handle soft ground and have run forwardly placed.

EXBOX- 7,14,16,17,18

Two that I put in my "follow" file this season are entered here. #8- Solid Stone just got bet down to 5-2 (Hollie Dyle-mania?), and #4- Graignes is 52-1.

WIN- 4

TW

[Badactor]

[diablo313]

All the money on #6 fallen from 20-1 to 5/2? Is that a sign worth chasing?

[spiderjohn]

Thanx 10f—and also for the heavy lifting analysis.
Shut out on the first two racez(would have been losers), followed by three decent winners and a couple of exactas. My kind of day.....

Chase at your own risk

One last shotgun exacta box
5-8-9-13-16-17
—————
Beautiful finish—scratch 17
Nice exacta
wow—missed the #5 scratching—knocked a 6-runner $60 Xbox down to a 4-runner $24 cost to catch it for $2
Can’t believe that I didn’t play #9 win.....
Haven’t seen the exacta pay yet

It’s never enough.....

[tenfurlongs]

So of course, the last goes to the Marquand- Doyle exacta. Graignes was fourth at 68-1.

TW