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Post by tenfurlongs on Oct 12, 2020 12:33:55 GMT -5
Flat racing season is coming to an end, so let's take a look at two of the smaller tracks in England.
Nottingham Racecourse.
Bath Racecourse.
Entries:
TW
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Post by tenfurlongs on Oct 13, 2020 9:35:54 GMT -5
free PPs from Penn Gaming-Hollywood Races:
TW
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1hooper
UpInClass Steward
Posts: 6,629
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Post by 1hooper on Oct 13, 2020 13:54:39 GMT -5
First 3 at Nottingham are interesting 2yo races. Just have to get up by 8:00am.
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Post by tenfurlongs on Oct 13, 2020 15:45:38 GMT -5
Nottingham R4 (9:35)- 1m2f (1m2f50y) Handicap (Class 3) (3yo+) (0-90)
Winning chance: 1,3,7
#1- Kryptos (10-1) was ambitiously placed in the Cambrigeshire H. last out, drew unfavorable post, managed a mid-pack finish. Race at Chester three back gives him claims today. William Buick taking the mount raises eyebrows. #3- Vulcan (9-5) is in cracking form with two wins in a row, including a seven-length drubbing last time in an apprentice race at Haydock. Bug-boy gets the mount again but this is a taller task. #7- Music Seeker (9-2) finished third in a similar event on Saturday, wheels right back in this heat where he finished fourth last year. Hasn't won in a while, but a repeat of last effort puts him squarely in the mix.
Can claim a place: 2,5,8
Bet: EX- 1,7/1,2,3,5,7
Bath R4 (10:20)- 1m6f Beckford Stakes (Listed Race) (Fillies & Mares) (Class 1) (3yo+)
Winning chance: 2,7,10
#2- Hereby (10-1) has been third thrice in a limited campaign this year. Won five of seven starts as a 3yo, needs to recapture that form with the step up in trip. #7- Traisha (6-1) has a win and two placings this term for O'Brien the Younger, runner-up finish in GIII at Naas points her out. #10- Vivionn (9-2) has three placings in three tries this year including a second in a GII, and her latest at Doncaster would likely win this. Needs to prove that softer ground will suit.
Can claim a place: 4,9
Bet: EX- 7,10/2,4,7,9,10
Nottingham 6 (10:45)- 5f (5f8y) Rous Stakes (Listed Race) (Class 1) (3yo+)
Winning Chance: 1,2,5
#1- Dakota Gold (5-2) won this race last year; slow to come to hand this season, but hit his stride winning the Beverly Bullet S. in August. Won a well-deserved GIII on Saturday at York going 6F, runs right back on favorable ground. Formidable foe. #2- Moss Gill (7-2) won a Listed event at York before an excellent third behind Battaash in the GI Nunthorpe. Was even with Dakota Gold at Doncaster and gets two pounds today. #5- Tis Marvellous (5-1) was fourth to Dakota Gold in last year's renewal. Been fed a steady diet of Group-racing this year, with a quick off-ramp allowance win at Leicester two back. May drift up in price in this evenly matched field.
Can claim a place: 3,4,7
Bet: EX- 1,2/1,2,3,4,5
Nottingham 7 (11:20)- 5f (5f8y) Handicap (Class 3) (3yo+) (0-90)
Winning chance: 5
#5- Wrenthorpe (6-1) obscurely-bred 5yo is a legit HFTC 4/3-1-0. Won this race last season and is ideally positioned for a repeat. M/L odds will not hold.
Can claim a place: 2,4,7
Best Bet: EX- 5/2,4,7
Bath 7 (12:00)- 1m6f Handicap (Div I) (Class 4) (3yo+ 0-85)
Winning chance: 2,5,6
#2- C'est No Mour (10-1) cleverly-named 7yo gelding is in fine form this term, close-up fourth to Rochester House at Ascot points him out. #5- Berkshire Savvy (10-1) has been carefully spotted by Balding in his ten career starts. Stretches out beyond 12F for the first time, Murphy sticks for the ride once again, price should be right. #6- Ursulina (20-1) is a complete unknown at the distance, but kept on for fourth against much better foes at 12F last out. Seems to have some class about her.
Can claim a place: 1,9,10
Bet: EX- 2,5/1,2,5,9,10 WIN- 6
Bath 8 (12:35)- 1m6f Handicap (Div II) (Class 4) (3yo+) (0-85)
Winning chance: 1,2,6
#1- Scaramanga (2-1) has won twice over the hurdles, but never on the flat. Consistent sort but hard to take at a short price and top-weight. #2- Baasem (6-1) ran well on seasonal debut at Ascot, then form went awry in last two. Crowley takes back the mount, taking a positive view. #6- Fiveandtwenty (4-1) 3yo filly hates the AW surface and is 4/3-0-1 on turf. Still has more to offer and expecting to see it today.
Can claim a place: 3,5,7
Bet: EX- 6/1,2,3,5
Good luck if you play!
TW
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Post by diablo313 on Oct 14, 2020 9:54:20 GMT -5
Hi Tom, trying to play along... nice hit Bath R4 thx
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Post by tenfurlongs on Oct 14, 2020 13:16:41 GMT -5
Thanks D, I hope you kept playing.
Nottingham R4 (9:35)- 1m2f (1m2f50y) Handicap (Class 3) (3yo+) (0-90)
Winning chance: 1,3,7
#1- Kryptos (10-1) was ambitiously placed in the Cambrigeshire H. last out, drew unfavorable post, managed a mid-pack finish. Race at Chester three back gives him claims today. William Buick taking the mount raises eyebrows. #3- Vulcan (9-5) is in cracking form with two wins in a row, including a seven-length drubbing last time in an apprentice race at Haydock. Bug-boy gets the mount again but this is a taller task. #7- Music Seeker (9-2) finished third in a similar event on Saturday, wheels right back in this heat where he finished fourth last year. Hasn't won in a while, but a repeat of last effort puts him squarely in the mix.
Can claim a place: 2,5,8
Bet: EX- 1,7/1,2,3,5,7 Result- 6,1,2 Music Seeker set a moderate pace but had nothing left when the real running began. Kryptos ran on for second, but I didn't think that the winner Lunar Jet ($23.60) could compete with the move up in class.
Bath R4 (10:20)- 1m6f Beckford Stakes (Listed Race) (Fillies & Mares) (Class 1) (3yo+)
Winning chance: 2,7,10
#2- Hereby (10-1) has been third thrice in a limited campaign this year. Won five of seven starts as a 3yo, needs to recapture that form with the step up in trip. #7- Traisha (6-1) has a win and two placings this term for O'Brien the Younger, runner-up finish in GIII at Naas points her out. #10- Vivionn (9-2) has three placings in three tries this year including a second in a GII, and her latest at Doncaster would likely win this. Needs to prove that softer ground will suit.
Can claim a place: 4,9
Bet: EX- 7,10/2,4,7,9,10 Result- 7,9,2 Exacta $25.50 Traisha ($10.80) got a great ride from David Egan, saving ground when it counted and bursting home on the outer rail as much the best. Hereby (13-1) got headed by Urban Artist (7-2) on the line, cutting the exacta by 2/3.
Nottingham 6 (10:45)- 5f (5f8y) Rous Stakes (Listed Race) (Class 1) (3yo+)
Winning Chance: 1,2,5
#1- Dakota Gold (5-2) won this race last year; slow to come to hand this season, but hit his stride winning the Beverly Bullet S. in August. Won a well-deserved GIII on Saturday at York going 6F, runs right back on favorable ground. Formidable foe. #2- Moss Gill (7-2) won a Listed event at York before an excellent third behind Battaash in the GI Nunthorpe. Was even with Dakota Gold at Doncaster and gets two pounds today. #5- Tis Marvellous (5-1) was fourth to Dakota Gold in last year's renewal. Been fed a steady diet of Group-racing this year, with a quick off-ramp allowance win at Leicester two back. May drift up in price in this evenly matched field.
Can claim a place: 3,4,7
Bet: EX- 1,2/1,2,3,4,5 Result- 1,3,6 Exacta $10.70 Dakota Gold ($4.80) is the handicap division's version of Battaash when he's in form, he just rockets away from the gate and says good luck! There was never a doubt today. I wonder if they'd consider the BC Turf Sprint with him?
Nottingham 7 (11:20)- 5f (5f8y) Handicap (Class 3) (3yo+) (0-90)
Winning chance: 5
#5- Wrenthorpe (6-1) obscurely-bred 5yo is a legit HFTC 4/3-1-0. Won this race last season and is ideally positioned for a repeat. M/L odds will not hold.
Can claim a place: 2,4,7
Best Bet: EX- 5/2,4,7 Result- 5,8,10 I should have just bet to win, but wanted to leverage the opportunity. Wrenthorpe ($9.00) just blasted away from the start, wasn't even asked until inside the final furlong, and eased further ahead at the finish. That horse LOVES the Nottingham track!
Bath 7 (12:00)- 1m6f Handicap (Div I) (Class 4) (3yo+ 0-85)
Winning chance: 2,5,6
#2- C'est No Mour (10-1) cleverly-named 7yo gelding is in fine form this term, close-up fourth to Rochester House at Ascot points him out. #5- Berkshire Savvy (10-1) has been carefully spotted by Balding in his ten career starts. Stretches out beyond 12F for the first time, Murphy sticks for the ride once again, price should be right. #6- Ursulina (20-1) is a complete unknown at the distance, but kept on for fourth against much better foes at 12F last out. Seems to have some class about her.
Can claim a place: 1,9,10
Bet: EX- 2,5/1,2,5,9,10 WIN- 6 Result- 2,9,3 Exacta $158.30 C'est No Mour ($35.60) had a nice stalking trip from PP1 and ran on very strongly to the wire, with a cluster of four horses fighting it out for the minor awards. Thankfully #9- Gentleman At Arms (7-1) poked a head in front for second.
Bath 8 (12:35)- 1m6f Handicap (Div II) (Class 4) (3yo+) (0-85)
Winning chance: 1,2,6
#1- Scaramanga (2-1) has won twice over the hurdles, but never on the flat. Consistent sort but hard to take at a short price and top-weight. #2- Baasem (6-1) ran well on seasonal debut at Ascot, then form went awry in last two. Crowley takes back the mount, taking a positive view. #6- Fiveandtwenty (4-1) 3yo filly hates the AW surface and is 4/3-0-1 on turf. Still has more to offer and expecting to see it today.
Can claim a place: 3,5,7
Bet: EX- 6/1,2,3,5 Result- 7,3,4 The inside was definitely the place to be drawn today at Bath in the distance races. David Egan rode another winner as #7- Prince Imperial ($17.60) finished the uphill rise to the wire with plenty in reserve. Fiveandtwenty was drawn widest of all, and had nothing to offer inside the final furlong.
Good luck if you play!
Bet: $47.00 Return: $194.50
Flush with cash for Champions Day at Ascot on Saturday. Final entries tomorrow at noon.
TW
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Post by diablo313 on Oct 14, 2020 18:06:13 GMT -5
Hi Tom
I was playing along, wagering when I had time (was working) so didn't get to play them all. Had a big meeting so made my last wager and shut down....the good news was my last bet was Bath 7th ;-) ;-) Thanks, my biggest hit in months!!
Now I have to decide whether to chase my (by which I mean YOUR) hot streak or just use it to stake BC !
Thanks again, you have a real handle on the euros... hope I can repay the good fortune/picks some day. David
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Post by tenfurlongs on Oct 15, 2020 8:33:41 GMT -5
I'm glad you scored on that exacta David, that certainly made my day too. PPs are out for Saturday Champions Day at Ascot, so it's time to start handicapping. I've found from looking back at my betting account summary that I do better when playing Class 2,3,4 races rather than the Listed-Group events over there. You can't beat the large field sizes, and usually can eliminate 2/3 of the horses based on form, distance, class or ground. I'm hoping that I'll have an advantage evaluating UK- IRE shippers for the Breeders' Cup races. Keeneland's 7 1/2 F turf course tends to favor closers, despite the short run to the wire. Will be watching the weather with interest.
TW
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1hooper
UpInClass Steward
Posts: 6,629
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Post by 1hooper on Oct 15, 2020 11:21:40 GMT -5
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Post by diablo313 on Oct 16, 2020 9:33:09 GMT -5
Hi Tom, which way do their class ratings run (is 2 better/ worse than 5)? I can only watch when there is a big meet airing on a US/Cdn network but must say I luv watching their Turf, especially large fields running straight (is that what they list as "flat"?) Any thoughts on the OMNI bet.... I've tried using it with mixed success, seems to have better value on the big meet days/ or when there a BIG fields. Payouts are too low when favs come in but can give solid payouts with great two way coverage ...
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1hooper
UpInClass Steward
Posts: 6,629
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Post by 1hooper on Oct 16, 2020 10:53:49 GMT -5
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Post by tenfurlongs on Oct 16, 2020 13:11:33 GMT -5
Thanks to Hooper for posting that guide to British/European racing, that has all the info. To answer your specific questions, Class 1 is the highest, Class 6 the lowest. "Flat" racing is just races without hurdles (jumps), although I'm not sure there's a flat (level) track in all of the UK. I also like the races run on a straight (5F to a mile), you're not necessarily penalized with a certain post position, like drawing the 12 hole in the US. I don't like the OMNI bet, like you said the payouts are underlays. $1 TRI get expensive quickly, so my go-to wager is the EXA, with two on top in many cases. I'm definitely siphoning off my profits by having more losing combos that way, but the increased number of winning wagers has more than compensated for it, so far.
I know many of us use speed figures of one form or another as "the way, the truth, and the light" as Mr. Beyer has said. Betting European racing has been liberating for me, as there aren't readily available "numbers" (sorry, Dell ) to handicap with. FDCA is all you need! Form, distance, class, and when applicable, arc. Ideally your horse is in form, is running at its best distance, and in a race (class) where it has performed well previously (and over suitable ground conditions). Arc generally applies to young or lightly-raced horses which are on a steady improvement pattern, or progressive. It sounds very simplistic, but I've found you can quickly eliminate horses and tick contenders. My only adaptation has been to use the Brisnet CR (class rating) and RR (race rating) as a guide to performance and strength-of-field in previous races. I never paid any attention to these when handicapping US racing, now I rely on them exclusively for UK-IRE. FWIW.
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Post by diablo313 on Oct 16, 2020 16:24:50 GMT -5
Thanks Hooper and Tom, so much, for taking the time to explain.... hopefully I can apply it effectively! I actually like your EX method - top 2or3 over same+contenders....
Good luck tomorrow!
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