Monmouth - Race 13

[Badactor]

#5 Andrez Conquist  $319.80  $89.60  $27.40

[PonyGirlJCM]

WOW!!! That surely moved someone up in the contest if they played it......

[1hooper]

I can smell something up here in New England.
Trainer has had 3 winners this year, all ridden by Mejia.
Jockey change at noon from Gonzalez to Mejia.
Mejia winners this year for the trainer 11-1,38-1 and 158-1.

[tc]

I, of course, played his other runner on the program today in race 11 who was also triple digit odds

REINA LA KELSY 99-1 in race 11 @ Monmouth.

[propro]

Every longshot winner has a story. Looking back at replays tonight on this horse because of this thread, I think I figured out his. 41 Beyer on the turf in a closing try at Tampa against 32k maidens shows he only wants grass when he was in Mazza's barn. Off 3 months and a rough trip/bad effort and he's off to Monmouth where his owner takes over as trainer. 2 dirt disasters lead up to 8/22, where he adds blinkers when 135-1 against MSW at 5.5f on the turf. Not sure why this runner would ever be in MSW. Line shows nothing except he was forced out. Replays show he was putting in a move on his own 4 wide looping runners nearing the turn when Morethanaconqueror starts forcing him wide before Neptunes Revenge blows the turn and takes both of them out past the 8 path, ending Andrez's momentum.

9/2 brings another dirt race. One mile, 16k maidens, post 7 of 7... and he's only 20-1, not the triple digits he was in his last 3 starts. He's asked for run out of the gate, 4w first turn and wants to go on with it on the backstretch, but he's strangled for the next quarter mile while now rank. It's dirt and he doesn't finish while still wide and being asked on the turn. I think they thought he was in a better spot after that hidden turf move, but didn't account for the surface.

Bad horses win bad races. Not sure where I heard that first, but it shows up time and time again when bombs come home. 9/26 arrives and his owner probably doesn't have much of anything on him at 153-1 and the horse gets the trip of his life against a bunch of 16k claimers that haven't done much on the grass. Asked for run again, but not strangled. He's near the pace and inside, so no chance of getting hung out or wiped out on either turn. Stalked the pace and blew them out. Exotics were enormous.

I just don't think this was any kind of setup. Just a runner against a bad group that found his trip. In hindsight, I'd never even think to look back at replays on a runner with these lines and wouldn't have had him. Monmouth has a youtube channel with replays. Check out the 8/22 and 9/2 races if you have a few minutes. Off of those replays, you could have created a story like this post where you could have thrown him into a box and hoped for a big effort. I'll bet his owner wishes he did.