LARRY'S PICKS for the 151st Travers Stakes!
Aug 5, 2020 20:57:46 GMT -5
Post by hezethebest on Aug 5, 2020 20:57:46 GMT -5
“Welcome to the beautiful Saratoga Race Course, the oldest thoroughbred course in the country". In past years that sentence would have actually meant something but in 2020 at least as of this writing, you are not truly being welcomed at the Spa! Traditions have been left by the wayside this year due to the Coronavirus pandemic and we are all missing these traditions and suffering accordingly. Traditions like the Belmont Stakes being the 3rd leg of the Triple Crown has been left by the wayside as this year it was not only shortened in distance, but it was contested as the 1st leg of the Triple Crown! Now we have the 151st Travers Stakes as a veritable prep race for the Kentucky Derby rescheduled for September 5th! The entire sports world has been turned upside down with outright cancellations, reduced seasons or competitions sans fans! I personally have not missed a Travers Day at Saratoga since 1982, the year one of the more remarkable results occurred. Back in 1982 the 3 individual Triple Crown race winners GATO DEL SOL, ALOMA’S RULER and CONQUISTADOR CIELO all showed up and in a very short 5 horse field none of them won! RUNAWAY GROOM shipped from Canada that year and won as the longest shot on the board!
This should have been my 39th consecutive Travers Day on track but barring an 11th hour positive response from New York Governor Andrew Cuomo to an impassioned appeal I submitted a few days ago, it appears that my on track streak may come to an end. I outlined a specific workable proposal to him that would allow for as much as 25% capacity to attend in person without the need for a significant hiring blitz. My guess is there is little chance he will even see it by Saturday but I will be in Saratoga on Travers Day just in case!
Another tradition that will not continue at least in 2020 is my producing “full card” analysis for Travers Day! I didn’t always analyze the full card but since doing so 10 years ago several nice scores have appeared in my “Selection” box including a few IRS scores like the $1,723.00 trifecta box in the 2010 Ballston Spa Stakes and my largest published analysis return of $11,355.00 for a $2.00 superfecta box from the 3rd race on the 2011 Travers Day undercard. That said, analyzing just the Travers Stakes this year doesn’t have to be a bad thing! While I don’t necessarily expect to give out the value we saw in 2018 when LARRY’S PICKS Travers Stakes analysis yielded the $290.00 exacta box as CATHOLIC BOY outran MENDLESSOHN to the wire, nor even the $143.00 trifecta box of my top 3 given out in 2019, let’s hope we can still make some money on the 2020 Travers Stakes!
A field of 8 is expected to answer the starters’ call with post time scheduled for 6:15 P.M. My analysis will be in post position order with morning line odds followed by my commentary relative to each runners’ chances for success. Finally, my personal “Selection” page will be offered at the end. Good luck to all who play today and most importantly, let’s bring them all back safe!
For more than 30 years LARRY’S PICKS has provided Triple Crown, Travers Day, Breeders’ Cup and Saratoga private party group outings analysis as
“A GUIDELINE FOR INTELLIGENT SPECULATION”! Larry was a 4 time finalist in the “WORLD SERIES OF HANDICAPPING” at Penn National in the 90’s as well as being a 15 time qualifier for the “HORSE PLAYER WORLD SERIES”, a Las Vegas event that began in 2005! LARRY’S PICKS highest priced Grade I winning selections over the years include DOMEDRIVER ($54.00 and the “cold” exacta for $142.00 BC Mile) FERDINAND ($37.00 Kentucky Derby) SINGLETARY ($35.00 BC Mile) GLORIOUS EMPIRE ($33.40 Sword Dancer) TEXAS RED ($29.80 BC Juvenile) COLONIAL AFFAIR ($29.00 Belmont Stakes) SEA HERO ($27.00 Kentucky Derby) TOURIST ($26.80 and the “cold” superfecta for $4,448.00 BC Mile) WAVELL AVENUE ($22.00 BC F&M Sprint) TONALIST ($20.40 and the “cold” exacta for $348.00 Belmont Stakes) SPUN TO RUN ($20.20 and the “cold” trifecta for $705.00 BC Dirt Mile) In addition, numerous IRS level scores have historically occupied the “Selection” page of LARRY’S PICKS, the largest of which was at Saratoga on Travers Day 2011 when the 4 runners from his analysis of the 3rd race combined for an $11,355.00 superfecta box. More recently in the 2017 Belmont Stakes, LARRY’S PICKS “Selection” page yielded the $4,486.00 superfecta when his top pick TAPWRIT outran the other 3 horses occupying the analytical space.
While the major race days come and go, for year round stimulating conversation on horse racing in general visit the finest horse chat site on the entire world wide web, www.UpInClass.com!
Larry LaTour
llatour1@twcny.rr.com
1) FIRST LINE 30-1 JOCKEY – DAVID COHEN
Owned and trained by Orlando Noda, this colt by FIRST SAMURAI just broke his maiden here at the Spa going 9 furlongs on July 29th. It was his 4th lifetime start and he showed determination in battling one who was well regarded through the length of the stretch. The final time of his race was actually faster than more accomplished Allowance types ran later on the card but that said, taking on winners for the first time can pose a huge obstacle for young horses to overcome. If the light bulb has suddenly gone on and he gets a boost of confidence from his newfound success he could garner a share with another move forward, especially from this ground saving draw!
2) COUNTRY GRAMMER 6-1 JOCKEY - IRAD ORTIZ
This Chad Brown trainee captured the Peter Pan Stakes on opening day by a neck over CARACARO who returns in this race also. Brown has won 3 of the last 4 training titles at the Spa and after a slow start he may again find himself in the hunt this year. One of the perennial leading riders retains the mount and another step forward from the colt is not beyond the realm of possibility especially after a solid 4 furlong move in the A.M. on August 1st! He may be in line for a major share.
3) UNCLE CHUCK 5-2 JOCKEY – LUIS SAEZ
This lightly raced son of UNCLE MO out of an UNBRIDLED SONG mare ships East following a convincing victory in the Grade III Los Alamitos Derby. He was flattered when the horse he beat by open lengths in that race came back to upset HONOR A.P. in the Shared Belief Stakes last Saturday. Trained by 3 time Travers winning trainer Bob Baffert, the connections usually “ship for the reason and not for the season”! Making only his 3rd lifetime start you should ignore him at your peril.
4) MAX PLAYER 6-1 JOCKEY - JOEL ROSARIO
This colt trained by Linda Rice put in a late run for the show dough in the Belmont Stakes but was still beaten better than 5 lengths. Trainer Rice is off to a decent start at Saratoga and the past training title winner at the Spa meet hopes to become the first ever female trainer of a Travers winner. While the connections are solid, I’m not sure the projected race flow sets up all that well for this likely late mover. He is probably best used underneath, if at all!
5) SHIVAREE 30-1 JOCKEY – JUNIOR ALVARADO
This speedster trained by Ralph Nicks exits a dismal performance at Keeneland in the Blue Grass Stakes. Previously, he had finished 2nd at a big price to TIZ THE LAW in the Florida Derby. His final work on August 1st in preparation for this big event was on the slow side and it certainly does not get the pulse pounding. Making his 13th lifetime start, he might be due for a freshening. A pace threat for sure but I doubt he will be around when the serious running begins!
6) TIZ THE LAW 1-1 JOCKEY – MANNY FRANCO
This son of CONSTITUTION out of a TIZNOW mare has turned into a “rags to riches” type story as he cost only 110K as a yearling. His relatively easy victory in the June 20th Belmont Stakes following his Florida Derby win stamps him as clearly the one to beat on Saturday. He is the lone participant with triple digit speed figures on his resume and if he needed any thing else going for him he has already shown a fondness for the main track at Saratoga having broken his maiden here last year with a solid 90 speed figure. The road to the “Winners’ Circle” seemingly passes through him!
7) CARACARO 10-1 JOCKEY – JAVIER CASTELLANO
Unlucky to narrowly lose the Peter Pan Stakes by a neck last out, this colt has a chance to take another step forward especially on the stretchout to 1 ¼ miles and while making only his 2nd start following 6 months away. Not much of an A.M. work horse, he sports 2 slow breezes since his last race. One might suppose that if you like COUNTRY GRAMMER for a share, you might also like this colt as well. I’m getting mixed signals on a colt who does have some things to like.
8) SOUTH BEND 15-1 JOCKEY – JOSE ORTIZ
This new acquisition in the barn of Hall of Fame trainer Bill Mott was last seen running 2nd in the Grade III Ohio Derby on June 27th. The versatile sort is now stakes placed on dirt and turf. He typically does his best work in the late stages of his races so he may be at the mercy of the pace scenario. He did put in a nice 5 furlong workout on August 2nd in company for Mott, getting the better of TACITUS who ran 2nd in last years Travers. He will need clever handling from Jose Ortiz who will hop aboard for the first time today.
1st - #3 UNCLE CHUCK 5-2 JOCKEY – LUIS SAEZ
This lightly raced, late developing son of UNCLE MO did not race as a 2 year old because trainer Bob Baffert decided to be patient in bringing him along. Unraced until this past June 12th, in an ordinary year he would have missed the Triple Crown campaign. That said, a victory in this extraordinary year will put him near the top of every serious handicappers’ Kentucky Derby list. He drew perfectly to employ his natural speed and he should be prominent throughout what promises to be an ordinary pace. Catch him in the “Winners’ Circle”!
2nd - #6 TIZ THE LAW 1-1 JOCKEY – MANNY FRANCO
Owned by Sackatoga Stable of FUNNYCIDE fame, this New York bred has never run a bad race in 6 starts and he is a deserving favorite as they load the gate on Saturday. That said, this is Saratoga “the graveyard of favorites”! Indeed 10 of the last 12 betting favorites in the Travers Stakes tasted defeat! He has worked superbly since his historic Belmont victory but he should be tested to his limits today!
3rd - #7 CARACARO 8-1 JOCKEY – JAVIER CASTELLANO
With only 3 lifetime starts this son of UNCLE MO has significant upside potential and deserves a long look in all of the slots!
4th - #4 MAX PLAYER 6-1 JOCKEY – JOEL ROSARIO
Normally I wouldn’t go 4 deep in an 8 horse field but I can’t give out a “cold” superfecta without a 4th runner! Like TIZ THE LAW, he is yet another who hasn’t run a bad race. He may simply be mistreated by the pace scenario today as he runs out of race track! Maybe he adds value filling the superfecta!
LL
