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Post by Badactor on Jul 8, 2020 9:12:04 GMT -5
Well folks, here we are on a Wednesday in July. Possibly the most important KD prep of the year... does the road to the Kentucky Derby run through Indiana? 1 No Getting Over Me (FL) 12/1
2 Extraordinary (KY) 10/1
3 Taishan (KY) 6/1
4 Earner (KY) 8/1
5 Shared Sense (KY) 4/1
6 Background (FL) 20/1
7 Juggernaut (KY) 15/1
8 Major Fed (KY) 7/2
9 Winning Impression (KY) 3/1
10 Necker Island (KY) 20/1
Kentucky Derby Points Available: 20–8–4–2
ODDS & ENTRIES:
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Post by Badactor on Jul 8, 2020 9:35:26 GMT -5
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Post by Badactor on Jul 8, 2020 9:56:50 GMT -5
Anyone ever visited this race track? |
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Post by PonyGirlJCM on Jul 8, 2020 10:12:07 GMT -5
If I were to choose it would be the 1-2-9......
Not necessarily in that order......
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Post by Badactor on Jul 8, 2020 11:15:31 GMT -5
At first glance, I thought 'no way' does Taishan go off @ 6-1... he'll be bet down. However, Brisnet has him picked last on their past performances... overlay watch. Bejarano/Baltas 25 starts 4w 9p 2s ... work pattern for return: steady and improving. Thinking the strategy may be to steal away out front and try to hold on... run fast Rafael!!!
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Post by tenfurlongs on Jul 8, 2020 11:24:50 GMT -5
PPs:
I see that #10- Necker Island (20-1) got claimed out of his last race at CD for $100K. Don't see that very often. He hasn't handled the jump to stakes company very well, should probably look for a N2X somewhere.
#1- No Getting Over Me (12-1) won like a good thing on his debut, but hasn't improved from there. Distance looks to be too far for him also. Needs a N1X at a mile.
#2- Extraordinary (10-1) $750K son of Speightstown has been progressive in his four starts. Brisset goes to Saez as Geroux rides for main man Cox. Needs a bit more for this group, but can be a player.
#3- Taishan (6-1) ran two good ones in the slop at OP but came unglued in the Arky derby. Went back to Cali to regroup, best to watch one before putting money down.
#4- Earner (8-1) has moved right along in three starts. Good front-running effort at CD over this distance last time. Santana bails out for mounts at KEE if that tells you anything about his chances. Could sit a nice trip behind likely pace-setter #7- Juggernaut (15-1) who is entered here for no obvious reason. He'd need to hop into a pick-up truck at the top of the stretch to get 9 furlongs from the looks of things.
#5- Shared Sense (4-1) is bred for a race like this, as Godolphin continues its quest to win a KY Derby (not a TC nominee, however). He's been brought along slowly by Cox, and progressed nicely at OP before going to the sidelines for a couple of months. Turf comebacker was just a prep and also to see if he handles grass. Last at CD was a good effort in a short field, and he ran into a buzzsaw, Art Collector, who ran a 100 Beyer. Needs a fast pace to close into.
#6- Background (20-1) also needs to find a N1X.
#8- Major Fed (7-2) progressed very smoothly in three FG starts, only beaten a length in the Risen Star (GII) at today's distance. Matt Winn S. was a wide-trip disaster, not surprised that Rosario is not aboard for this. If you want to just draw a line through that effort, then he's the horse to beat. Full brother Zapperini was a stakes-placed turf horse. I'd like to see this guy going 9-11F on the lawn, might be his future.
#9- Winning Impression (3-1) was another who was very progressive this season, once he was stretched out to two-turn distances. Not a bad effort when fourth at OP to runaway winner Charlatan. Both wins came in the slop, but he has run well on fast tracks too. Might also be at the mercy of the pace, like Shared Sense, and he'll lose a few lengths breaking from the nine hole. I'd prefer a better dirt-route rider than Leparoux, who doesn't excel in that area, or maybe it's just because he never wins when I back his horses  . Not a total bet-against, but not using for the win.
EX- 4,8/2,4,5,8
TW
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Post by elkurzhal on Jul 8, 2020 11:26:40 GMT -5
Oaks - Shedaresthedevil is clearly the horse to beat, but Gibberish @ 20-1 ran a huge one for Saffie last time out. a pair up with the 6lb weight break makes her very competitive.
Derby - Winning Impression had a solid 2yo top the a couple off races at FG. perked up at OP and ran a new top last out with a 3wide/3wide trip. gets in light too. Wouldn't be surprised if Shared Sense was the post time favorite and he is solid. Earner looks to get a soft pace and would be the other threat. Taishan a bit of a wildcard after the clunker last out. heavy exacta 9 with 4,5 and .50 tri box 3,4,5,9
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shoes
UpInClass Steward
Posts: 2,132
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Post by shoes on Jul 8, 2020 17:15:34 GMT -5
Dell, I have been to Indiana Grand and really enjoyed the experience. The two things that stood out the most were really good bar food in the race/sports book and the friendliest wait staff of any of the tracks I have been to (Keeneland would be up there too). Anyone ever visited this race track? |
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Post by Badactor on Jul 8, 2020 21:26:16 GMT -5
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. Not a total bet-against, but not using for the win.
