LARRY'S PICKS for the 152nd Belmont Stakes!
Jun 17, 2020 21:06:50 GMT -5
Post by hezethebest on Jun 17, 2020 21:06:50 GMT -5
Analysis of the field for the 152nd Belmont Stakes, with the theme this year being “2 weeks late yet 2 races early”! Traditionally run as the 3rd leg of the Triple Crown, due to the Covid-19 pandemic the racing world has felt the impact along with every other facet of living. Originally scheduled for June 6th we are 2 weeks late. With the rescheduling of the Kentucky Derby to September 5th followed by the Preakness on October 3rd, the Belmont becomes the 1st leg of the Triple Crown in 2020, so in essence we are 2 races early! An additional deviation from the norm is that for the 1st time since 1926 it will not be contested at 1 ½ miles, but rather the horses will navigate only 1 1/8 miles today. A decent size field of 10 is poised to meet the starter in this race at beautiful Belmont Park. I will analyze the respective chances of success for each runner in post position order, with my personal “Selection” page on display at the end. I hope you enjoy the 152nd Belmont Stakes!
For more than 30 years LARRY’S PICKS has provided Triple Crown, Travers Day, Breeders’ Cup and Saratoga private party group outings analysis as
“A GUIDELINE FOR INTELLIGENT SPECULATION”! Larry was a 4 time finalist in the “WORLD SERIES OF HANDICAPPING” at Penn National in the 90’s as well as being a 15 time qualifier for the “HORSE PLAYER WORLD SERIES”, a Las Vegas event that began in 2005! LARRY’S PICKS highest priced Grade I winning selections over the years include DOMEDRIVER ($54.00 and the “cold” exacta for $142.00 BC Mile) FERDINAND ($37.00 Kentucky Derby) SINGLETARY ($35.00 BC Mile) GLORIOUS EMPIRE ($33.40 Sword Dancer) TEXAS RED ($29.80 BC Juvenile) COLONIAL AFFAIR ($29.00 Belmont Stakes) SEA HERO ($27.00 Kentucky Derby) TOURIST ($26.80 and the “cold” superfecta for $4,448.00 BC Mile) WAVELL AVENUE ($22.00 BC F&M Sprint) TONALIST ($20.40 and the “cold” exacta for $348.00 Belmont Stakes) SPUN TO RUN ($20.20 and the “cold” trifecta for $705.00 BC Dirt Mile) In addition, numerous IRS level scores have historically occupied the “Selection” page of LARRY’S PICKS, the largest of which was at Saratoga on Travers Day 2011 when the 4 runners from his analysis of the 3rd race combined for an $11,355.00 superfecta box. More recently in the 2017 Belmont Stakes, LARRY’S PICKS “Selection” page yielded the $4,486.00 superfecta when his top pick TAPWRIT outran the other 3 horses occupying the analytical space.
Larry LaTour
llatour1@twcny.rr.com
1) TAP IT TO WIN 6-1 JOCKEY – JOHN VELAZQUEZ
2 for 2 in 2020, this son of TAPIT steps up in class while drawing a most favorable rail post position. He has keen speed and in a race pretty much devoid of such a commodity he should get the early jump on these and control the pace. If the splits are moderate he could be gone before the serious running begins!
2) SOLE VOLANTE 8-1 JOCKEY – LUCA PANICI
3) MAX PLAYER 12-1 JOCKEY – JOEL ROSARIO
This lightly raced son of HONOR CODE has done little wrong in a 3 race career and the Grade III winner would appear to have a promising future. He should get a good stalking trip behind the early pace herein and he will have a chance to show that he is good enough!
4) MODERNIST 10-1 JOCKEY – JUNIOR ALVARADO
This Kentucky bred by UNCLE MO is 2 for 2 at this 9 furlong distance and he races out of the Bill Mott barn. Off since a 3rd place finish behind WELLS BAYOU in the Grade II Louisiana Derby, he has worked well and probably deserves some consideration, especially underneath in exotics!
5) FARMINGTON ROAD 20-1 JOCKEY – JAVIER CASTELLANO
This son of QUALITY ROAD is yet another who seems to do his best running at the tail end of a race and the early pace scenario makes all the difference. I respect the connections but a minor share would appear to be the ceiling.
6) FORE LEFT 12-1 JOCKEY – JOSE ORTIZ
2 time Kentucky Derby winning trainer Doug O’Neill has decided to roll the dice in this race when he originally had targeted the shorter distance of the Woody Stephens Stakes on the Belmont undercard for this TWIRLING CANDY colt! The primary speed challenge to rail runner TAP IT TO WIN will need clever handling in order to avoid a duel and save something for the stretch run. While not impossible beneath the talented Ortiz he will need some things to break his way to crack the trifecta!
7) JUNGLE RUNNER 35-1 JOCKEY – REYLU GUTIERREZ
1 of 2 entered from the Steve Asmussen barn, one needed a telescope to find him last out when he beat 1 runner home in a split of the Grade I Arkansas Derby! He simply has not run fast enough to challenge the top contenders this time around.
8) TIZ THE LAW 6-5 JOCKEY – MANNY FRANCO
This son of CONSTITUTION sports an overall enviable record including a sweep of the major Florida prep races. Off since his Florida Derby victory on March 28th, he has worked purposely for trainer Barclay Tagg and he appears to strictly be the one to beat albeit at short odds!
9) DR. POST 6-1 JOCKEY – IRAD ORTIZ
This expensive son of QUALITY ROAD has won his last 2 races for trainer Todd Pletcher as he tries the graded stakes ranks for the 1st time! He should be another getting a decent “stalking” trip and he only needs to prove he is good enough!
10) PNEUMATIC 15-1 JOCKEY – RICARDO SANTANA
The other Asmussen runner clearly appears to be the better of the 2. A close up 3rd in the Grade II Matt Winn at Churchill last out, he added to a consistent ascending speed figure scheme that suggests further improvement might be likely. While another step forward is needed you should dismiss him at your own peril!
SELECTIONS
1ST - #1 TAP IT TO WIN 6-1 JOCKEY – JOHN VELAZQUEZ
“When they are going good, you run them”! Don’t expect to hear that quote from any particular trainer, it is simply my belief. This colt was ultra-impressive at 1 1/16th miles over this surface just 16 days ago improving his record to 2 for 2 this year. Potentially a “bounce” candidate, I will take a chance that he has another step forward coming and he may very well lead this field “wire to wire”!
2nd - #8 TIZ THE LAW 6-5 JOCKEY – MANNY FRANCO
This NY bred from the connections of FUNNYCIDE is strictly the one they all have to beat!
3rd – #10 PNEUMATIC 15-1 JOCKEY – RICARDO SANTANA
This Kentucky bred by UNCLE MO could be the surprise package stretching out to a distance that should hit him right between the eyes! He has upset potential at a solid price.
LL
For more than 30 years LARRY’S PICKS has provided Triple Crown, Travers Day, Breeders’ Cup and Saratoga private party group outings analysis as
“A GUIDELINE FOR INTELLIGENT SPECULATION”! Larry was a 4 time finalist in the “WORLD SERIES OF HANDICAPPING” at Penn National in the 90’s as well as being a 15 time qualifier for the “HORSE PLAYER WORLD SERIES”, a Las Vegas event that began in 2005! LARRY’S PICKS highest priced Grade I winning selections over the years include DOMEDRIVER ($54.00 and the “cold” exacta for $142.00 BC Mile) FERDINAND ($37.00 Kentucky Derby) SINGLETARY ($35.00 BC Mile) GLORIOUS EMPIRE ($33.40 Sword Dancer) TEXAS RED ($29.80 BC Juvenile) COLONIAL AFFAIR ($29.00 Belmont Stakes) SEA HERO ($27.00 Kentucky Derby) TOURIST ($26.80 and the “cold” superfecta for $4,448.00 BC Mile) WAVELL AVENUE ($22.00 BC F&M Sprint) TONALIST ($20.40 and the “cold” exacta for $348.00 Belmont Stakes) SPUN TO RUN ($20.20 and the “cold” trifecta for $705.00 BC Dirt Mile) In addition, numerous IRS level scores have historically occupied the “Selection” page of LARRY’S PICKS, the largest of which was at Saratoga on Travers Day 2011 when the 4 runners from his analysis of the 3rd race combined for an $11,355.00 superfecta box. More recently in the 2017 Belmont Stakes, LARRY’S PICKS “Selection” page yielded the $4,486.00 superfecta when his top pick TAPWRIT outran the other 3 horses occupying the analytical space.
While the major race days come and go, for year round stimulating conversation on horse racing in general visit the finest horse chat site on the entire world wide web, www.UpInClass.com Good luck to all and may they all come back safe!
llatour1@twcny.rr.com
1) TAP IT TO WIN 6-1 JOCKEY – JOHN VELAZQUEZ
2 for 2 in 2020, this son of TAPIT steps up in class while drawing a most favorable rail post position. He has keen speed and in a race pretty much devoid of such a commodity he should get the early jump on these and control the pace. If the splits are moderate he could be gone before the serious running begins!
2) SOLE VOLANTE 8-1 JOCKEY – LUCA PANICI
With 4 wins in 6 lifetime starts this Grade III winner out of KARAKONTIE does his best work in the late stages of races and as such he may be at the mercy of a soft pace herein. Other than the projected race flow there is little to suggest he could not gain a major share with a perfect trip.
This lightly raced son of HONOR CODE has done little wrong in a 3 race career and the Grade III winner would appear to have a promising future. He should get a good stalking trip behind the early pace herein and he will have a chance to show that he is good enough!
4) MODERNIST 10-1 JOCKEY – JUNIOR ALVARADO
This Kentucky bred by UNCLE MO is 2 for 2 at this 9 furlong distance and he races out of the Bill Mott barn. Off since a 3rd place finish behind WELLS BAYOU in the Grade II Louisiana Derby, he has worked well and probably deserves some consideration, especially underneath in exotics!
5) FARMINGTON ROAD 20-1 JOCKEY – JAVIER CASTELLANO
This son of QUALITY ROAD is yet another who seems to do his best running at the tail end of a race and the early pace scenario makes all the difference. I respect the connections but a minor share would appear to be the ceiling.
6) FORE LEFT 12-1 JOCKEY – JOSE ORTIZ
2 time Kentucky Derby winning trainer Doug O’Neill has decided to roll the dice in this race when he originally had targeted the shorter distance of the Woody Stephens Stakes on the Belmont undercard for this TWIRLING CANDY colt! The primary speed challenge to rail runner TAP IT TO WIN will need clever handling in order to avoid a duel and save something for the stretch run. While not impossible beneath the talented Ortiz he will need some things to break his way to crack the trifecta!
7) JUNGLE RUNNER 35-1 JOCKEY – REYLU GUTIERREZ
1 of 2 entered from the Steve Asmussen barn, one needed a telescope to find him last out when he beat 1 runner home in a split of the Grade I Arkansas Derby! He simply has not run fast enough to challenge the top contenders this time around.
8) TIZ THE LAW 6-5 JOCKEY – MANNY FRANCO
This son of CONSTITUTION sports an overall enviable record including a sweep of the major Florida prep races. Off since his Florida Derby victory on March 28th, he has worked purposely for trainer Barclay Tagg and he appears to strictly be the one to beat albeit at short odds!
9) DR. POST 6-1 JOCKEY – IRAD ORTIZ
This expensive son of QUALITY ROAD has won his last 2 races for trainer Todd Pletcher as he tries the graded stakes ranks for the 1st time! He should be another getting a decent “stalking” trip and he only needs to prove he is good enough!
10) PNEUMATIC 15-1 JOCKEY – RICARDO SANTANA
The other Asmussen runner clearly appears to be the better of the 2. A close up 3rd in the Grade II Matt Winn at Churchill last out, he added to a consistent ascending speed figure scheme that suggests further improvement might be likely. While another step forward is needed you should dismiss him at your own peril!
SELECTIONS
1ST - #1 TAP IT TO WIN 6-1 JOCKEY – JOHN VELAZQUEZ
“When they are going good, you run them”! Don’t expect to hear that quote from any particular trainer, it is simply my belief. This colt was ultra-impressive at 1 1/16th miles over this surface just 16 days ago improving his record to 2 for 2 this year. Potentially a “bounce” candidate, I will take a chance that he has another step forward coming and he may very well lead this field “wire to wire”!
2nd - #8 TIZ THE LAW 6-5 JOCKEY – MANNY FRANCO
This NY bred from the connections of FUNNYCIDE is strictly the one they all have to beat!
3rd – #10 PNEUMATIC 15-1 JOCKEY – RICARDO SANTANA
This Kentucky bred by UNCLE MO could be the surprise package stretching out to a distance that should hit him right between the eyes! He has upset potential at a solid price.
LL
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