30 is the New 0 (Re: Tampa Turf Variants)
May 11, 2020 7:22:01 GMT -5
Post by johnnybattbd on May 11, 2020 7:22:01 GMT -5
Thirty is the new Zero
With Sunday dark, I did that research I’ve been talking about doing, which involved reviewing how I calculate Turf variants, with shocking results.
As I now see it, there are three (3) factors affecting turf variants (or variations in velocity in FPS) as follows:
Portable Rail Setting
Which day at a particular Portable Rail Setting
Run up distance
(Turf course condition obviously is a factor, but races on other than FIRM surfaces are infrequent enough to render this factor technically moot and perhaps subject simply to an intuitive adjustment.)
I’ve known for years that at Tampa, runners went anywhere from between 0 and 185 extra feet when racing on the lawn, depending on today’s rail setting, but I assumed that horses going further should be given a credit when calculating variants (and vice versa).
PR 0 = 0 ft.
PR12 = +75 ft.
PR15 = +90 ft. (Projected)
PR22 = +135 ft.
PR30 = +185 ft.
Portable Rail Adjustments
(In seconds to be added or subtracted):
Call 2nd Final
0 Feet -0.2 -0.4
12 Feet -0.1 -0.2
15 Feet* 0 0 * Projected
22 Feet 0.2 0.4 Par
30 Feet 0.3 0.6
I was dead wrong! This presumption assumed that all things being equal, the velocity of runners at the various Portable Rail settings was constant (or at least consistent), but such is not the case, and not only is it not the case, the actual velocities, counterintuitively, have been determined to increase, the further the portable rail gets from 0.
The reasons are less important than the findings, but I now suspect that shorter run ups combined with tighter turns when the rail is at or closer to 0 are the culprits.
I also suspected (but never did the research) that Variants for each day the PR was at a particular setting would deteriorate which each passing day. I was right about this.
The purpose of yesterday’s work was to confirm the latter, but what I got was much more.
Looking at the last three years of Turf races at Tampa, I observed the following regarding variations in Variants with respect to today’s portable rail setting and the number of days at each setting.
Adjustment factors by Portable Rail
and # of Days at PR
Rail @ Early Late
0 Day 1 -1 -1
0 Day 2 -2 -2
0 Day 3 -2 -2
0 Day 4 -3 -3
0 Day 5+ -4 -4
Rail @ Early Late
12 Day 1 -1 0
12 Day 2 -2 -1
12 Day 3 -2 -1
12 Day 4 -3 -2
12 Day 5+ -4 -3
Rail @ Early Late
22 Day 1 2 1
22 Day 2 1 0
22 Day 3 1 0
22 Day 4 0 -1
22 Day 5 -1 -2
Rail @ Early Late
30 Day 1 7 6
30 Day 2 6 5
30 Day 3 6 5
30 Day 4 5 4
30 Day 5 4 3
Run up Ranges 48 ft to 82 ft
Putting it another way, Final Velocities varied by up to several feet per second (the base was 53.54 fps Late), depending on PR setting and number of days at that setting.
I’ll be using these new adjustments going forward.
By the way, Quirin Variants for the Turf for the 2019-2020 meeting were slow by a dismal 4.68 Early and 5.79 Late, attesting to the deteriorating quality of bloodstock at Tampa.
Please share your thoughts and comments. I need them and want them.
Johnny B.
With Sunday dark, I did that research I’ve been talking about doing, which involved reviewing how I calculate Turf variants, with shocking results.
As I now see it, there are three (3) factors affecting turf variants (or variations in velocity in FPS) as follows:
Portable Rail Setting
Which day at a particular Portable Rail Setting
Run up distance
(Turf course condition obviously is a factor, but races on other than FIRM surfaces are infrequent enough to render this factor technically moot and perhaps subject simply to an intuitive adjustment.)
I’ve known for years that at Tampa, runners went anywhere from between 0 and 185 extra feet when racing on the lawn, depending on today’s rail setting, but I assumed that horses going further should be given a credit when calculating variants (and vice versa).
PR 0 = 0 ft.
PR12 = +75 ft.
PR15 = +90 ft. (Projected)
PR22 = +135 ft.
PR30 = +185 ft.
Portable Rail Adjustments
(In seconds to be added or subtracted):
Call 2nd Final
0 Feet -0.2 -0.4
12 Feet -0.1 -0.2
15 Feet* 0 0 * Projected
22 Feet 0.2 0.4 Par
30 Feet 0.3 0.6
I was dead wrong! This presumption assumed that all things being equal, the velocity of runners at the various Portable Rail settings was constant (or at least consistent), but such is not the case, and not only is it not the case, the actual velocities, counterintuitively, have been determined to increase, the further the portable rail gets from 0.
The reasons are less important than the findings, but I now suspect that shorter run ups combined with tighter turns when the rail is at or closer to 0 are the culprits.
I also suspected (but never did the research) that Variants for each day the PR was at a particular setting would deteriorate which each passing day. I was right about this.
The purpose of yesterday’s work was to confirm the latter, but what I got was much more.
Looking at the last three years of Turf races at Tampa, I observed the following regarding variations in Variants with respect to today’s portable rail setting and the number of days at each setting.
Adjustment factors by Portable Rail
and # of Days at PR
Rail @ Early Late
0 Day 1 -1 -1
0 Day 2 -2 -2
0 Day 3 -2 -2
0 Day 4 -3 -3
0 Day 5+ -4 -4
Rail @ Early Late
12 Day 1 -1 0
12 Day 2 -2 -1
12 Day 3 -2 -1
12 Day 4 -3 -2
12 Day 5+ -4 -3
Rail @ Early Late
22 Day 1 2 1
22 Day 2 1 0
22 Day 3 1 0
22 Day 4 0 -1
22 Day 5 -1 -2
Rail @ Early Late
30 Day 1 7 6
30 Day 2 6 5
30 Day 3 6 5
30 Day 4 5 4
30 Day 5 4 3
Run up Ranges 48 ft to 82 ft
Putting it another way, Final Velocities varied by up to several feet per second (the base was 53.54 fps Late), depending on PR setting and number of days at that setting.
I’ll be using these new adjustments going forward.
By the way, Quirin Variants for the Turf for the 2019-2020 meeting were slow by a dismal 4.68 Early and 5.79 Late, attesting to the deteriorating quality of bloodstock at Tampa.
Please share your thoughts and comments. I need them and want them.
Johnny B.
