LARRY'S PICKS for the Breeders' Cup Races on Fri. 11/01/19!
Oct 29, 2019 11:58:35 GMT -5
Post by hezethebest on Oct 29, 2019 11:58:35 GMT -5
Analysis of the “BREEDERS’ CUP WORLD THOROUGHBRED CHAMPIONSHIPS”, racings’ $28,000,000.00 weekend! Expanded to 2 days in 2007, this edition of LARRY’S PICKS will analyze the Friday menu with 5 events contested at varying distances over both dirt and turf. The Juveniles take center stage today hoping to prove that they will be the “stars of the future”! The 5 Breeders’ Cup races at Santa Anita today will begin with the 5th race.
With full, typically well balanced fields to decipher I can’t promise to uncover another score like the “cold” superfecta for $4,448.00 that I gave out in the 2016 Breeders’ Cup Mile, but on the heels of my winning my 14th lifetime berth into the Horse Player World Series just this past Saturday, I can promise you that the time and effort has gone into the analysis to give us a fighting chance to make some money! To all those reading my analysis and playing the 2019 Breeders’ Cup, I wish you nothing but the best of luck!
For more than 30 years LARRY’S PICKS has provided Triple Crown, Travers Day, Breeders’ Cup and Saratoga private party group outings analysis as
“A GUIDELINE FOR INTELLIGENT SPECULATION”! Larry was a 4 time finalist in the “WORLD SERIES OF HANDICAPPING” at Penn National in the 90’s as well as being a 14 time qualifier for the “HORSE PLAYER WORLD SERIES”, a Las Vegas event that began in 2005! LARRY’S PICKS highest priced Grade I winning selections over the years include DOMEDRIVER ($54.00 and the “cold” exacta for $142.00 BC Mile) FERDINAND ($37.00 Kentucky Derby) SINGLETARY ($35.00 BC Mile) GLORIOUS EMPIRE ($33.40 Sword Dancer) TEXAS RED ($29.80 BC Juvenile) COLONIAL AFFAIR ($29.00 Belmont Stakes) SEA HERO ($27.00 Kentucky Derby) TOURIST ($26.80 and the “cold” superfecta for $4,448.00 BC Mile) WAVELL AVENUE ($22.00 BC F&M Sprint) TONALIST ($20.40 and the “cold” exacta for $348.00 Belmont Stakes) In addition, numerous “old world” IRS level scores have historically occupied the “Selection” page of LARRY’S PICKS, the largest of which was at Saratoga on Travers Day 2011 when the 4 runners from his analysis of the 3rd race combined for an $11,355.00 superfecta box. Most recently in the 2017 Belmont Stakes, LARRY’S PICKS “Selection” page yielded the $4,486.00 superfecta when his top pick TAPWRIT outran the other 3 horses occupying the analytical space.
While the major race days come and go, for year round stimulating conversation on horse racing in general visit the finest horse chat site on the entire world wide web, www.UpInClass.com. Good luck to all and may they all come back safe!
Larry LaTour
llatour1@twcny.rr.com
5 FIFTH RACE (4:12 P.M. EST)
Breeders' Cup Juvenile Turf Sprint (Grade I)
5 Furlongs on the Turf for 2 year olds. Purse $1,000,000.00
(10) A’ALI is a multiple Group II winner shipping from Europe for Simon Crisford. The lone off the board blemish on his resume came in the Group I Darley Prix Mornay where he may not have cared for the “soft” course conditions at Deauville that day. A perfect 3 for 3 beneath pilot Lanfranco Dettori, this grandson of ROCK OF GIBRALTAR should fall into a good stalking trip and can prove best through the lane. If ROCK OF GIBRALTAR brings back memories, you might just be a longtime reader of LARRY’S PICKS! It was 2002 when I spotted DOMEDRIVER on top of the heavily favored ROCK OF GIBRALTAR giving out the “cold” exacta for $142.00 in the Breeders’ Cup Mile! To this day, DOMEDRIVER is the highest priced Grade I winner to appear on my bio page. (12) CAMBRIA is a perfect 3 for 3 who cuts back from 6 ½ furlongs for Wesley Ward. The SPEIGHTSTOWN filly overcame trouble last out to remain unbeaten and in a race that promises an honest pace, she may be running on best in the late stages. (7) KIMARI has not run a bad race yet and was forced to show a new dimension last out when early trouble forced her to drop back and finish strong. In a race loaded with speed types, a rating tactic may need to be employed in order to show her best! (6) ALLIGATOR ALLEY was the beaten favorite last out in a race won by my top pick. He shows 3 consecutive trouble lines in his past performances and he will need a clean trip to show his best!
6 SIXTH RACE (4:52 P.M. EST)
Breeders' Cup Juvenile Turf Presented By Coolmore America (Grade I)
1 Mile on the Turf for 2 year olds. Purse $1,000,000.00
(14) HIT THE ROAD sports an ascending speed figure pattern and is the only runner entered with a win over this turf course. He made it 2 in a row while capturing the ungraded Zuma Beach Stakes last out unleashing a powerful late run. In a field that is well balanced pace-wise, he should get an honest pace setup to close into. He is worth a long look in all of the slots! (7) ANDESITE may have been best before encountering some late traffic last out in the Grade III Pilgrim Stakes. Regally bred for the conditions he should have a chance from a good stalking trip. (2) STRUCTOR improved to 2 for 2 while victorious in the aforementioned Pilgrim Stakes and the pricy colt by PALACE MALICE deserves respect for potent connections. (12) ARIZONA saw his Timeform rating skyrocket while running 2nd in the Group I Darley Dewhurst Stakes over a “soft” turf course on October 12th. While unlikely to get similar footing today, he nonetheless owns a Group II victory over a large field at Ascot this past June. (6) GRACEFUL KITTEN is a speedy son of KITTEN’S JOY who arguably has overachieved enroute to a perfect 3 for 3 record so far. He will need clever handling with other speeds signed on but could gain a share on his best. Contention runs deep!
7 SEVENTH RACE (5:32 P.M. EST)
Breeders' Cup Juvenile Fillies (Grade I)
1 1/16th Miles on the Dirt for 2 year olds Fillies. Purse $2,000,000.00
(7) WICKED WHISPER has never been headed while winning her first 2 starts including the Grade I Frizette Stakes last out. In a race loaded with speed, the connections may want to employ rating tactics in order to avoid a suicidal duel. She will attract tote attention but may be the one in an interesting race. (2) TWO SIXTY dominated Florida breds in the My Dear Girl Stakes last out and is one of several with a quick first gear. She arrives here for Mark Casse with a subsequent “bullet” in the holster and she may be the one to catch and beat! (3) PERFECT ALIBI should be outrun early on but may come flying if a speed duel develops into a hot pace. Despite being the lone 3 time winner in the field, she should be a square price and could spice up the exotics. (4) BRITISH IDIOM is also undefeated after capturing the Grade I Alcibiades last out. She could improve again and be right there.
Breeders' Cup Juvenile Fillies Turf (Grade I)
1 mile on the Turf for 2 year old Fillies. Purse $1,000,000.00
(5) DAAHYEH has gone to the post favored in all 5 starts across the pond and has never finished worse than 2nd. She has paired up her Timeform ratings in her last 2 and may be coming to a peak performance in this, her 3rd start following a brief freshening. She is likely the one to beat on firm turf. (9) ALBIGNA sports an ascending Timeform speed figure rating although the latest progression in winning a Group I Stakes came over a course with significant “give” in it. Unlikely to get such footing today she could nonetheless be along for a share! (3) SHADN captured the Group II Criterium de Maisons-Laffitte in France over soft turf last out and will stretch out to a Mile for the first time for strong Euro connections.
9 NINTH RACE (7:03 P.M. EST)
TVG Breeders' Cup Juvenile (Grade I)
1 1/16th Miles on the Dirt for 2 year olds. Purse $2,000,000.00
(5) SCABBARD is an April foal by MORE THAN READY who had his name changed from NOOSE after finishing 2nd in the Grade II Saratoga Special on August 10th. He finished 2nd again in the Grade III Iroquois last out behind the likely favorite today DENNIS’ MOMENT, but he had a troubled trip. In another well balanced field pace-wise, he may get enough early pace to set up his strong late run. He is worth a long look with Mike Smith taking the call! (1) DENNIS’ MOMENT drew the rail seeking his 3rd straight score and appears to strictly be the one to beat. (6) EIGHT RINGS is trained by Bob Baffert who is looking to tie D. Wayne Lukas with his 5th lifetime BC Juvenile win. He exits a victory in the Grade I American Pharoah wherein he beat some signed on today and that win came over this course and distance. He could take all beneath Johnny Velazquez! (9) MAXFIELD is 2 for 2 and could better this rating for Jose Ortiz.
LL