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Post by tenfurlongs on Oct 27, 2019 9:04:41 GMT -5
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sbwest
UpInClass Member
Posts: 230
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Post by sbwest on Oct 29, 2019 18:29:41 GMT -5
Talk about a WIDE OPEN race. Going for a price with # 10 Fair Maiden to hit the board.
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Post by Badactor on Oct 29, 2019 20:29:03 GMT -5
a little something on this one just because...
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Post by tenfurlongs on Oct 30, 2019 8:32:49 GMT -5
Albigna is 3-for-4 lifetime, was beaten by Daahyeh at the Curragh on return from short layoff, ridden very hard that day. GI win at Longchamp in last (BC Challenge race) was visually impressive. Expecting a similar run here.
Daahyeh has done little wrong in five starts, including a game win in the GII Rockfel S. (BC Challenge race) last out. Bred to be a 6-7F sprinter, not sure a mile will suit her. Could get run past late.
Fair Maiden won impressively FTT going 6.5F, seemed to idle when she hit the front going a mile in the Natalma (GI) last time. Will be sent from post ten by Van Dyke, not sure the last furlong will be kind to her.
Living In The Past will have to be sent from the rail, sprinter-type should add to the front-end heat, but hard to imagine her seeing out the trip.
Sweet Melania drew poorly in 12, what chance she had may have been doomed by projected wide trip and above average pace.
Crystalle should be running late, drew a nice starting position and has the right jockey in Rosario. Can use her underneath at a square price.
5,9/7/10,12
TW
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shoes
UpInClass Steward
Posts: 2,074
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Post by shoes on Oct 30, 2019 10:01:39 GMT -5
As noted Daahyeh is just a total of 2 lengths shy of 5-5. Think she can stretch out at least this first time, have always loved jockey Bill Buick. Albigna looked too impressive last out at Longchamp for me not to use.
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Post by elkurzhal on Oct 30, 2019 10:51:44 GMT -5
tough race. should be huge rewards for anyone who nails this tri...
1 Living in the past - slowish top, doesn't get lasix, can Tudhope make 122lbs? 2 Croughavouke - slow top, short rest 3 Shadn - fast top, gets lasix, looks distance limited, short rest. 4 Abscond - slow, good spacing, paired last time, should run new top, but would have to be a big jump to contend 5 Daahyeh - average top, no lasix, pattern and race timing suggest she could run a new top, Buick likes to save ground on turns. 6 Unforgetable - short rest, gets lasix, not a stakes caliber horse at home, not sure why she is here really. 7 Crystalle - slow, good spacing, small top last time, should run new top, but would have to be a big jump to contend 8 Tango - gets lasix, short rest last was a big top to one of the best tgraph figs in the group, but over heavy ground. prior figs would not be competitive. no bargain given connections lack of success here. 9 Albigna - no lasix, short rest, big top last time to a competitive fig in a 1 turn mile. probably the most impressive of the Euros, but this is an after thought to the Arc day race. no bargain as the favorite. 10 Fair Maiden - no lasix, fast figs on poly and turf sprint but drifting around in the 1 turn mile at woodbine in a big bounce last time. pass 11 Sharing - solid fig last out, was a bit off the dirt # the race before. good rest. tough post. seems like a solid value play at 12-1. 12 Sweet Melania - short rest, small jump last time to a solid fig, seems to be versatile and should give Ortiz some options which he'll need starting from the parking lot. 13 Selflessly - slow top, post not disaster for deep closer, small top last time is among the slower tops in the field. Brown does do well with 38% new tops in 3rd lifetime start. Has a shot, but probably over bet. 14 Etoile - slowest top coming in, gets lasix, terrible draw. Coolmore house jocks passed so will I.
how much is a 9 horse tri box, asking for a friend...
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Post by spiderjohn on Oct 30, 2019 14:47:32 GMT -5
Hard to get past the 5 and 9—warmer smoky dry climate the main concern. 9’s last finish was ultra impressive and should handle firm. Owners are no stranger to the winner’s circle either—their only runner this weekend.
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5wide
UpInClass Member
Posts: 1,327
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Post by 5wide on Oct 31, 2019 14:47:24 GMT -5
eye opening stat of the race
European shippers have won this race just twice out of the 11 times it has been run but both of those victories came at Santa Anita. Each were fillies with a sharp late turn of foot with success running at the route distance.
not so eye opening stat of the race
This race has become another one that is dominated by Chad Brown charges as they have won 4 of the last 5 editions of this race — that includes that last two times this race was run at Santa Anita
Selflessly is my play in this race , locked in at 12/1 william hill uk. Will also try a 5 deep ex box adding Sweet Melania, Crystalle, Daahyeh, Albigna
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ozzy
UpInClass Member
Posts: 805
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Post by ozzy on Oct 31, 2019 18:13:04 GMT -5
I guess Daayeh as would go with Selflessly but the wide post less than ideal
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