tc
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Post by tc on Mar 27, 2018 14:38:02 GMT -5
Just wondering what wagering angles board members like to use and/or look for when examining races...if people are willing to share I will try to report back as to profitability when I get a chance to run the stats. I'll post a few below to get this thread started.
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tc
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Post by tc on Mar 27, 2018 14:44:43 GMT -5
here is one:
scat daddy sired runners in graded stakes only
in the past year, 77 starters, 14% win, 21% roi
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tc
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Post by tc on Mar 27, 2018 14:49:50 GMT -5
here is another:
linda rice with maiden winner last out
in the past year, 46 starters, 33% win, 37% roi
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Post by tims70ar on Mar 28, 2018 16:46:25 GMT -5
Not a big ROI but usually a positive at OP this year has been horses who lead a MSW at some point then drop into MCL. Here is one running in the first on Thursday.....  |
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Post by wrightstuff on Apr 2, 2018 8:10:02 GMT -5
One angle I use is to look for owners with a consistent high win percentage.
Two Gulfstream owner(s) are:
1) Klaravich Stables, Inc., and William H Lawrence. Currently 37% win and 63% ITM.
2) Repole Stable. Currently 47% win and 76% ITM.
I don't know anywhere to get owner/trainer stats but that would be a very powerful tool.
Repole mainly uses Todd Pletcher whose main jockey is John Velazquez. Currently at GP Pletcher/Velazquez are 33% win and 60% ITM.
On the 31st Repole/Pletcher/Velasquez won GP10 with Outplay a 2-1. It was Repole's only entry that day.
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tc
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Post by tc on Apr 2, 2018 8:12:37 GMT -5
MSW to MCL @ OP Class Droppers in past year
Led @ 1st call in last race: 17 races, 19 starters, 21% win, +14% ROI
Led @ 2nd call in last race: 15 races, 17 starters, 24% win, -28% ROI
Led @ Stretch call in last race: 3 races, 3 starters, 0% win, -100% ROI
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1hooper
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Post by 1hooper on Apr 2, 2018 15:43:01 GMT -5
I have a problem not betting a grey Tapit or a Juddmonte homebred. Probably not a good ROI.
Hooper
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Post by cherokeescot on Apr 3, 2018 5:35:03 GMT -5
Bet Hot Scot Racing at Tampa - to place !
Current season record 14 starts 2 wins 7 seconds 1 third ITM 71%
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tc
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Post by tc on Apr 3, 2018 15:14:31 GMT -5
here is a positive angle for Hot Scot Racing Stables
@ Aqueduct, past year
11 starts, 11 runners, 18% win, +165% ROI
(if I recall correctly the 2 winners producing the positive ROI both won on the same day...not too long ago)
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tc
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Post by tc on Apr 3, 2018 15:15:22 GMT -5
btw, the above only includes runners that were solely owned by Hot Scot Racing Stables
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tc
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Post by tc on Apr 3, 2018 15:21:47 GMT -5
Bet Hot Scot Racing at Tampa - to place ! Current season record 14 starts 2 wins 7 seconds 1 third ITM 71% Bev, I'm assuming that this includes all Hot Scot Racing Stables starters that were either owned solely or in combination with others. When I ran the stats at Tampa for runners owned solely by Hot Scot Racing Stables I believe I got 0 winners in the past year...so am assuming the 2 winners were owned by Hot Scot in partnership with others. |
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Post by cherokeescot on Apr 3, 2018 17:30:42 GMT -5
TC , one horse was a 50:50 partnership with Ridenjac Racing and went 4-2-1-0
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jacckk8
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Post by jacckk8 on Apr 5, 2018 18:26:30 GMT -5
On "cheap" claimers.....I look for horses that have raced twice in the last month at the same track .......finished at least first second or third...and at the same distance of todays race.........I am talking claimers that are like $15K or below....they don't need workouts...the races are their workouts!! Also..my silly handicapping is to bet horses that have a name with the letter Q in it.... and lastly..my SPA boys know that you need to stick with a daily double that you bet regardless of the odds...in my case it is the 2-2 double.....lost a million times..but when it wins---it is sweet!<----tip from my DAD....  Jack |
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1hooper
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Post by 1hooper on Apr 5, 2018 19:28:03 GMT -5
Jack,
I’ve seen that 2-2 double come in a few times at The Blanket.
Got one in tomorrow at Greyville,4th race. New trainer,hope we can resurrect her.
Hooper
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jacckk8
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Post by jacckk8 on Apr 6, 2018 9:55:11 GMT -5
Hooper..i'll be up at 4 AM waiting for it..... Hoop...go to DRF..free contest today.....starting tonight...Trip to Australia to the winner.......you have a leg up on those foreign horses!!!
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Post by wrightstuff on Apr 6, 2018 15:11:41 GMT -5
Hooper..i'll be up at 4 AM waiting for it..... Hoop...go to DRF..free contest today.....starting tonight...Trip to Australia to the winner.......you have a leg up on those foreign horses!!! I just picked the first 9 numbers that popped into my head. G'Luck Mates. LOL |
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tc
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Post by tc on Apr 7, 2018 10:04:57 GMT -5
here are a couple of positive angles based on some of the suggestions posted by eddie and hooper...
repole stable owned runners trained by pletcher (over the past year): 125 races, 132 runners, 33% win, +5% roi
juddmonte farms owned runners sired by tapit (over the past year): 8 races, 8 runners, 25% win, +29% roi
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Post by DoctorDisaster on Apr 7, 2018 10:33:45 GMT -5
see 4/7 post for some nice CC angles I follow.
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Post by unusualpete on Apr 8, 2018 20:41:09 GMT -5
Here are two.
When a leading trainer has a voided claim on one of his runners. He doesn't want to be thought of as a guy who sends out injured horses. Wins a lot next out.
When a CA runner's been off for 6 months or more, they're eligible to come back at the same claiming level they competed at before the break, but without a tag.
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