IT'S FREE PLAY WEDNESDAY- DEC 4th at Tampa
Dec 3, 2024 10:05:19 GMT -5
Post by johnnybattbd on Dec 3, 2024 10:05:19 GMT -5
Wednesday, Dec. 4th
On Saturday Mr. Pick Four and I both made some beer money. We’re still sizing up this ever-changing landscape, where ½ of the races to date have been won by unprofiled trainers. The rubber band hasn’t come off the bankroll just yet. So it goes…
A chalky Wednesday is not my cup of tea. Good luck to all who enter here!
1st – Li’l Miss Camille (1) won or finished up close in almost all starts that she took strong action (and for several different conditioners). Mendieta (15% Win angle) drops her in class and sticks with the hot apprentice, Sara Hess. PP1 is 21% Win presently.
KOC has no angle unless the top choice, then she Wins 47% of the time in this situation. She did claim Charlee (4) back for a nickel (or virtually for free) but I don’t know. Sassy Charlee’s sire Speightster has 20% Winners here in Oldsmar and Charlee has gone better than par here in the past.
The wisdom of the crowd dictates in R1…
2nd – In R2 we have two APDs facing off. Pretty’n Awesome (6) did it at 6F last year and Ritabook at 7F. If Mr. Bennett is the favorite, he is 77 & 100 (in 10 tries) with this angle. Mr. Rigattieri has all sub-par singles. Faced with a dueling situation, today may not be the day for Rita.
Cazares is 1-44 with Shippers.
Win 6
3rd – Afilada (6) means Sharp in Spanish and I suspect Delgado will have her “afilada” today. Jorge is 63 & 75 with L4-8s and 38 & 69 off the claim. At odds-on, Delgado is 91% ITM. Pilot David Egan was up for Delgado at GP last Sunday and I take that as a good sign (it’s a long trip from Hallandale).
Win 6 and DDs 6/2,4
4th – Midnight Onyx (2) weakened late in last as the favorite with Dr. No up (what a surprise!) and Yates makes the switch today. Michael is 21% Win with his angle. Another leader is up on the RtS move.
Catalina Express (4) was par for T/E in maiden win here last Spring and was up close for a $30K purse two back. Today there is 50% less in prize money on the table. Rodriguez has a respectable 13 & 44 record with this angle.
See R3
5th – Post Positions 1, 2 & 3 are only 1-14 on the grass so far! Coincidence? Maybe, but this place was under water just 4 weeks ago…
Dini 2.0 outperforms with Dropdowns and DtoT types. His piece made career best number in last on the grass. This filly was really slow to get the hang of it. Mike may just pull the pin again today. Watch the board.
Ward was MIA in 2024 and he has a PTB here. An 18 & 45 conditioner in P3T, Dennis is sub-par with this type (13% Win).
Tourist Style (9) remains with Elmer Gonzalez and McGoey put a good many over in the past with Posadas as surrogate. Camacho is up. Ya never know.
Win 5 and Saver Exacta 9/5
6th – The bajan is our #2 Elite Value Conditioner and he as a 37% Win angle here. His 3YO made a big fig in debut, then was distracted in next. Maybe God’s Timing (4) will be better today, but only God knows.
Arriagada has preferred Batista and others recently, but a quick check says that he and Castanon were 50% ITM in L2T. On paper, Conspiracy Fact (3), entered for $16K in this condition that is for almost all comers, should get a piece.
DDs 3,4/3
7th – KOC is currently 0-11 but with 7 ITM with the L1-3 + S angle and Iorio is 0-5 when up for Kathy. It’s hard to keep good women down. Spanish Noble (3) is by a leading N.A. Turf Sire.
See R6 and Saver Trifectas 2,7,10,13/3/2,7,10,13 (12 bets)
8th – Adios Babe (1) goes for red hot JC Avila who is 50 & 83 when favored on the Rightback.
Dini is historically 50% ITM with the TtoD + RtS move and specifically, he is 17 & 58 with the T 1Mi to 7F Dirt move.
Exacta Box 1,3 and Trifectas 1,3/1,3,4,6/1,3,4,6 (12 bets)
9th – Dr. No is as slippery as an eel in heat. Three years ago, he was 5-12 when up for Casse, but since then he’s 3-24. To his credit, he screws almost everybody over (not just the little guys).
Mr. Bennett has another weakness angle here, now 1-25 with the RB + DtoT, but hold your horses! Goddess Minerva (10) went +11,+6 in MSW win and could just be that outlier.
Rose View (11) went 17 clicks better than the bullet par at Palm Meadows recently. I don’t leave that kind off my ticket.
Dini is 50% ITM with UCEs.
Gimme a flyer on Trifectas 1,5,8,11,12/10/1,5,8,11,12 up to 20 bets
On Saturday Mr. Pick Four and I both made some beer money. We’re still sizing up this ever-changing landscape, where ½ of the races to date have been won by unprofiled trainers. The rubber band hasn’t come off the bankroll just yet. So it goes…
A chalky Wednesday is not my cup of tea. Good luck to all who enter here!
1st – Li’l Miss Camille (1) won or finished up close in almost all starts that she took strong action (and for several different conditioners). Mendieta (15% Win angle) drops her in class and sticks with the hot apprentice, Sara Hess. PP1 is 21% Win presently.
KOC has no angle unless the top choice, then she Wins 47% of the time in this situation. She did claim Charlee (4) back for a nickel (or virtually for free) but I don’t know. Sassy Charlee’s sire Speightster has 20% Winners here in Oldsmar and Charlee has gone better than par here in the past.
The wisdom of the crowd dictates in R1…
2nd – In R2 we have two APDs facing off. Pretty’n Awesome (6) did it at 6F last year and Ritabook at 7F. If Mr. Bennett is the favorite, he is 77 & 100 (in 10 tries) with this angle. Mr. Rigattieri has all sub-par singles. Faced with a dueling situation, today may not be the day for Rita.
Cazares is 1-44 with Shippers.
Win 6
3rd – Afilada (6) means Sharp in Spanish and I suspect Delgado will have her “afilada” today. Jorge is 63 & 75 with L4-8s and 38 & 69 off the claim. At odds-on, Delgado is 91% ITM. Pilot David Egan was up for Delgado at GP last Sunday and I take that as a good sign (it’s a long trip from Hallandale).
Win 6 and DDs 6/2,4
4th – Midnight Onyx (2) weakened late in last as the favorite with Dr. No up (what a surprise!) and Yates makes the switch today. Michael is 21% Win with his angle. Another leader is up on the RtS move.
Catalina Express (4) was par for T/E in maiden win here last Spring and was up close for a $30K purse two back. Today there is 50% less in prize money on the table. Rodriguez has a respectable 13 & 44 record with this angle.
See R3
5th – Post Positions 1, 2 & 3 are only 1-14 on the grass so far! Coincidence? Maybe, but this place was under water just 4 weeks ago…
Dini 2.0 outperforms with Dropdowns and DtoT types. His piece made career best number in last on the grass. This filly was really slow to get the hang of it. Mike may just pull the pin again today. Watch the board.
Ward was MIA in 2024 and he has a PTB here. An 18 & 45 conditioner in P3T, Dennis is sub-par with this type (13% Win).
Tourist Style (9) remains with Elmer Gonzalez and McGoey put a good many over in the past with Posadas as surrogate. Camacho is up. Ya never know.
Win 5 and Saver Exacta 9/5
6th – The bajan is our #2 Elite Value Conditioner and he as a 37% Win angle here. His 3YO made a big fig in debut, then was distracted in next. Maybe God’s Timing (4) will be better today, but only God knows.
Arriagada has preferred Batista and others recently, but a quick check says that he and Castanon were 50% ITM in L2T. On paper, Conspiracy Fact (3), entered for $16K in this condition that is for almost all comers, should get a piece.
DDs 3,4/3
7th – KOC is currently 0-11 but with 7 ITM with the L1-3 + S angle and Iorio is 0-5 when up for Kathy. It’s hard to keep good women down. Spanish Noble (3) is by a leading N.A. Turf Sire.
See R6 and Saver Trifectas 2,7,10,13/3/2,7,10,13 (12 bets)
8th – Adios Babe (1) goes for red hot JC Avila who is 50 & 83 when favored on the Rightback.
Dini is historically 50% ITM with the TtoD + RtS move and specifically, he is 17 & 58 with the T 1Mi to 7F Dirt move.
Exacta Box 1,3 and Trifectas 1,3/1,3,4,6/1,3,4,6 (12 bets)
9th – Dr. No is as slippery as an eel in heat. Three years ago, he was 5-12 when up for Casse, but since then he’s 3-24. To his credit, he screws almost everybody over (not just the little guys).
Mr. Bennett has another weakness angle here, now 1-25 with the RB + DtoT, but hold your horses! Goddess Minerva (10) went +11,+6 in MSW win and could just be that outlier.
Rose View (11) went 17 clicks better than the bullet par at Palm Meadows recently. I don’t leave that kind off my ticket.
Dini is 50% ITM with UCEs.
Gimme a flyer on Trifectas 1,5,8,11,12/10/1,5,8,11,12 up to 20 bets
