So........

[eye123]

I saw a podcast yesterday on runners at KD in their next start. Cogburn who had his last start at KD looks like a standout in the 5th today. But the stats say no way. In the last 10 Breeders Cups, horses who come from  KD  (last start) are 0 for 32. Of them 0-17 at California tracks. But the real kicker...any start in same year 0-101. Tough stats to buck. (as good as Cogburn is, at a very low price)

[shoes]

Familiar with the stat but as with any of these you have to look at the horses that make up the sample and the races that they came out of. Until fairly recently Ky Downs had very few graded stakes. How many of the KY downs horses were short or fairly short odds in the BC? Were any of them them coming into the BC with anything close to the credentials that Cogburn has?

I will say that the Ky Downs track is unique in North America and very different from Del Mar, so success there isn't going to translate per se. I would like to beat the favorite in the race and probably will try (or maybe not), but for this particular horse that statistical fact is not compelling to me.

[eye123]

I hate to buck stats like that.(but as you say what horses make up the stat) I like Cogburn, but will just pass the race. (So many opportunities today, why bother...at what would be an odds  on runner) Would need to go maybe 4 or 5 deep otherwise. (trying to beat)