#9 Escape Clause certainly has a set of pp's that you normally don't see at Del Mar. She brings an 8 race winning streak, but has won those races against probably much weaker competition at Assiniboia Downs (no offense intended to either of the Macs), Canterbury Downs, Northlands Park and most recently wins of 10 3/4 and 9 lengths at Century Downs (I had to look up the track code of the last one). Many of those wins have been at very short odds. She is now making her turf debut and facing a real class test. The track handicapper has made her 20-1 in the ML, probably not sure (just like me) exactly what to make of her.
Be interesting to see how she does against this level of competition. I think that I'm looking elsewhere.
I initials selected the 10 as well but placed for a modest 50 and then went and put the 1 & 3 to show...I will be watching how the 7 runs and the odds for sure....there is no out standing horse in this race...at least not at a mile since the class at which these have run are pretty close and even a horse that has not run since feb. this year looks ready and fresh and sharp...but the 7 is the one to beat...a good contest first race selection by the Del mar folk running this contest...lol
JolyB I think you have Escape Clause pretty well measured up. She is certainly the Queen of Western Canada but most of her wins have come in restricted stakes. That being said her race at Canterbury against Hot Shot Anna, who is a very good sprinter, shows that she has lots of ability. Her race in the Zia Oaks last year was also better than it looked as she was stuck down on the inside behind horses almost all the way around.
First time turf is a question too.
We will be watching with great interest to see how she does. I hope she makes a good account of herself.
Wha....what? The California stewards got one right? :-) Large Mac, I hope you had some of your multi-colored money on her nose. I remember her well from our discussion about her and I thought her stride would work on the grass.
It was a good opening weekend. Winner on Friday, second yesterday after I couldn't take a 3/5 favorite for the competition that looked death and taxes and a 4-1 winner today that took about 5 hours to come up with. Today's race was brutal to handicap. 100w on each, went from tied for first to tied for 35th to probably back into the top ten after today. Need my best work to get back to Vegas through this contest again, but I'm motivated for sure. :-)
Played hard fought today....may as well take a shot....looks possible over the distance ...conditioning is as good as any in general and the class factor might show up as it is a wide open race ...but the 2 looks like the one to beat...
Ever beg for a leader to drift out a path or two to legally block someone closing? That's me today as my 100w pick, 12-1 Ferguson had a 2 length lead down the stretch after putting away bids from the top 2 choices and had to try to hold off 17-1 Mercer Island. He couldn't and lost by less than a length. This is going to change the leaderboard and not in a good way for me.
18th after this weekend, $620 out of second (top two go to Vegas). My computer let me down yesterday as I tried to make a final minute change to the eventual winner in the second contest race. I've had wifi card issues lately and when I went to make the cancellation, which would be followed by the new play, I saw I had no connection. With 30 seconds to lock, I had no options other than to keep my original play with the Irish shipper. I knew 10 strides out of the gate that I was on the wrong one. I'd be a clear second now and it's been bothering me, but I still have 4 races left to get it done. Loved the winner today, but unfortunately a late scratch of a 3-1 shot who had no shot knocked down his price. Can't knock winners though.
I still like my chances and just need to trust what I see.
That was a tough break yesterday, Propro. The price you would have gotten on Caribou Club would have made a huge difference in your total, and could have greatly altered your strategy going forward. You still have plenty of time to jump to the top. As you mentioned, there are 4 racing days left, and I would not be surprised to see multiple contest races offered on several of them. By my count, we have had 13 races offered on 12 race days, and the contest rules suggested that there would be 20 races offered on 16 race days.
Good luck the rest of the way. I'll be rooting from the cheap seats.
This has been the toughest weekend for the contest. Off the turf the first two days and I see the horses I liked for the turf win both. I'm not on either on the dirt. Loved both winners yesterday, but couldn't take either as the favorite and had to reach. One thing I've learned about California racing from Unusual Pete that has stuck with me over the years is that there is nobody better than Edwin Maldonado going to the front on the turf. He jumped on Snazzy Dresser and I have him for 100w in the first of two contest races today. He just aired at 8-1. He was 11-1 as they were loading, so that hit to 8-1 is going to hurt me.
I start today in 7th with 1740, 1090 behind second. Snazzy Dresser just paid $19 to win, so I should have 2590 right now. The Matriarch is the final race of the contest. Not sure where I am yet, but hopefully I'm a lot closer to second than I was before. Time to dig to find the right one in the feature.
I'm now 10th, $628 out of second. If I'm the only one ahead of me that hits the winner in the Matriarch and the others lose 100, I need a winner that pays at least 12.60 to win to have any shot at getting lucky. Maldonado is on Fahan Mura and she's certainly the pacesetter in here. 12-1 ml, but she's had issues with Vasilika before and she's in here. Lots of east coast shippers too. Still digging, but I know I could do a lot worse than seeing Fahan Mura up by 2 turning for home...
Jim, any good ideas? One of the things I do to try to help me out in this contest is to grab the dmr tgraph sheets from the day before from the redboard room starting about a month before the July DMR meeting, continuing until now. Having the back numbers for the CA runners help me greatly in the normal contest races, but I don't have the numbers from the runners back east.