LARRY'S PICKS for the BC on Saturday, November 3rd, 2018! Oct 30, 2018 21:25:06 GMT -5
Post by hezethebest on Oct 30, 2018 21:25:06 GMT -5
Analysis of the “BREEDERS’ CUP WORLD THOROUGHBRED CHAMPIONSHIPS”, racings’ $28,000,000.00 weekend! Expanded to 2 days in 2007, this edition of LARRY’S PICKS will analyze the Saturday menu with 9 events contested at varying distances over both dirt and turf. The 9 Breeders’ Cup races at Churchill Downs today will begin with the 3rd race.
With full, typically well balanced fields to decipher I can’t promise to uncover another score like the “cold” superfecta for $4,448.00 that I gave out in the 2016 BC Mile, but I can promise you that the time and effort has gone into the analysis to give us a fighting chance to make some money! To all those reading my analysis and playing the 2018 Breeders’ Cup, I wish you nothing but the best of luck!
For more than 30 years LARRY’S PICKS has provided Triple Crown, Travers Day, Breeders’ Cup and Saratoga private party group outings analysis as
“A GUIDELINE FOR INTELLIGENT SPECULATION”! Larry was a 4 time finalist in the “WORLD SERIES OF HANDICAPPING” at Penn National in the 90’s as well as being an 11 time qualifier for the “HORSE PLAYER WORLD SERIES”, a Las Vegas event that began in 2005! LARRY’S PICKS highest priced Grade I winning selections over the years include DOMEDRIVER ($54.00 and the “cold” exacta for $142.00 BC Mile) FERDINAND ($37.00 Kentucky Derby) SINGLETARY ($35.00 BC Mile) GLORIOUS EMPIRE ($33.40 Sword Dancer) TEXAS RED ($29.80 BC Juvenile) COLONIAL AFFAIR ($29.00 Belmont Stakes) SEA HERO ($27.00 Kentucky Derby) TOURIST ($26.80 and the “cold” superfecta for $4,448.00 BC Mile) WAVELL AVENUE ($22.00 BC F&M Sprint) TONALIST ($20.40 and the “cold” exacta for $348.00 Belmont Stakes) In addition, numerous “old world” IRS level scores have historically occupied the “Selection” page of LARRY’S PICKS, the largest of which was at Saratoga on Travers Day 2011 when the 4 runners from his analysis of the 3rd race combined for an $11,355.00 superfecta box. Most recently in the 2017 Belmont Stakes, LARRY’S PICKS “Selection” page yielded the $4,486.00 superfecta when his top pick TAPWRIT outran the other 3 horses occupying the analytical space.
While the major race days come and go, for year round stimulating conversation on horse racing in general visit the finest horse chat site on the entire world wide web, www.UpInClass.com Good luck to all and may they all come back safe!
3 THIRD RACE (12:00 P.M. EST)
Breeders' Cup Filly & Mare Sprint (Grade I)
7 Furlongs on the Dirt for 3 year olds & up. Purse $1,000,000.00
(8) MIA MISCHIEF is a 3 year old daughter of INTO MISCHIEF taking on mostly older in this long sprint. Never out of the exacta in 4 trips around this oval, she may be poised to pull the upset for potent Midwest connections. (1) SELCOURT seeks her 4th straight score while shipping East for trainer John Sadler. As consistent as Mr. Sadler has been in saddling winners over the years, he is remarkably 0-41 in the Breeders’ Cup! The 4 year old by TIZ WONDERFUL has been off since March 24th but she has run well “fresh” in the past. One of several with possible designs on the engine, she will need to avoid a duel to show her best. (13) MARLEY’S FREEDOM is a multiple graded stakes winner including her 1st Grade I last out when she captured the Ballerina Stakes on the Travers undercard at the Spa. She should get a good stalking trip behind the ample speed signed on and she could earn her 5th straight win with a well timed move. (11) FINLEY’SLUCKYCHARM showed speed before fading in the aforementioned Ballerina Stakes and she suffered a similar fate when trying this race in 2017. That said, if there is a veritable “horse for the course” she fits the bill with 6 victories in 7 lifetime starts here at Churchill. She will require clever handling but could rebound on her favorite surface. (10) HIGHWAY STAR makes her 3rd start back from a brief layoff and she may benefit the most if a speed duel develops. Look for her late, if at all!
4 FOURTH RACE (12:38 P.M. EST)
Breeders' Cup Turf Sprint (Grade I)
5 ½ Furlongs on the Turf for 3 year olds & up. Purse $1,000,000.00
(6) RAINBOW HEIR exits a solid effort in a Grade III Stakes at Parx, his 1st race since January. He should benefit from that effort and he may close powerfully into what should be honest fractions. (9) STORMY LIBERAL is the defending champion who knows where the wire is as is evident from his multiple close winning finishes. (10) HAVANA GREY is a Group I winner at the short sprint distance across the pond and if there is any significant moisture in the track he could be the one to beat! (8) CHANTELINE gets tested for class while seeking her 3rd straight. (13) WILL CALL has a solid record at the distance and over this course. He is yet another being tested for class!
5 FIFTH RACE (1:16 P.M. EST)
Breeders' Cup Dirt Mile (Grade I)
1Mile on the Dirt for 3 year olds & up. Purse $1,000,000.00
(10) CATALINA CRUISER would appear to be main speed and if SELCOURT doesn’t end the 0-41 skid by trainer John Sadler in the F&M Sprint, then this 4 year old by UNION RAGS probably will. (1) CITY OF LIGHT has 2 Grade I victories on the resume and while he tries the flat mile for the 1st time in his career, it would appear to be within the range of his talents. (4) SEVEN TRUMPETS is a consistent sort who might be along for a share over a surface he adores! (6) SEEKING THE SOUL makes his 3rd start back from a July break and he also has run well at CD and at this distance. Look for him in the latter stages.
6 SIXTH RACE (2:04 P.M. EST)
Maker’s Mark Breeders' Cup Filly & Mare Turf (Grade I)
1 3/8 Miles on the Turf for 3 year olds & up. Purse $2,000,000.00
(6) SISTERCHARLIE has won back to back Grade I Stakes in her last 2 bringing her 2018 total earnings to just shy of a million. She looks to be the best of the 5 being saddled by trainer Chad Brown herein. (3) WILD ILLUSION owns 3 Group I victories in Europe including her last 2 at 1 ¼ miles. She is superbly bred for the slight stretchout and could go well for Charles Appleby. (10) MAGIC WAND has traded decisions with WILD ILLUSION in the past and these 2 are hard to separate!
7 SEVENTH RACE (2:46 P.M. EST)
TwinSpires Breeders’ Cup Sprint (Grade I)
6 Furlongs on the Dirt for 3 year olds & up. Purse $2,000,000.00
(8) LIMOUSINE LIBERAL had a troubled stretch run in the Grade II Phoenix Stakes preparing for this but he could go well over a surface he has shown a liking for with a 6 for 8 winning slate. He projects for a “stalk and kick” type of journey and seems a must use in all slots! (2) PROMISES FULFILLED takes on mostly older while sporting a perfect 2 for 2 record at the distance. The Grade I Hal Jerkens winner on the Travers undercard must avoid a speed duel if he hopes to gain his 4th straight win! (1) WHITMORE rattled off 5 straight and has won 9 times sprinting since I spotted him on top in the 2016 Kentucky Derby. Victor Espinoza basically eased him that day when he thought he took a bad step entering the stretch. No matter as he found a home as a 1st class sprinter. If a speed duel develops he may be running on best in the late stages.
8 EIGHTH RACE (3:36 P.M. EST)
Breeders’ Cup Mile (Grade I)
1 Mile on the Turf for 3 year olds & up. Purse $2,000,000.00
(5) OSCAR PERFORMANCE is drawn midpack and should be able to utilize his keen speed and control this race on the engine. (14) MUSTASHRY drops 7 pounds following back to back Group II wins. He’ll try Grade I company for the 1st time but he could be well placed in a race where most want to do their running in the late stages. (4) POLYDREAM faltered following trouble in the Group I Qatar Prix de la Foret. The effort 2 back from this 3 year old filly could put her right there in deep stretch. (10) CATAPULT has performed well at this distance albeit against lesser. He could round out the gimmicks on his best!
9 NINTH RACE (4:16 P.M. EST)
Longines Breeders' Cup Distaff (Grade I)
1 1/8 Miles on the Dirt for 3 year olds & up. Purse $2,000,000.00
(11) MONOMOY GIRL cancelled what would have been her 6th straight date with the camera man when she was disqualified in the Grade I Cotillion Stakes last out. The 5 time Grade I winner nonetheless has an enviable overall record and should be prominent throughout over a surface she has shown an affinity for. She appears to clearly be the one to catch as the serious running begins. (1) CHAMPAGNE PROBLEMS is a 4 year old daughter of GHOSTZAPPER who while superbly bred for this 9 furlong distance has only tried it once in a 20 race career. That was in the Grade I Spinster Stakes last out where she ran 2nd with trouble lines on display. She could fuel the exotics at a big price! (2) ABEL TASMAN caused a major “splash” amongst the bridge jumpers when she beat only 1 runner home in the Grade I Zenyatta last out at Santa Anita. That inexplicable performance has been dismissed by the strong connections and the 6 time Grade I winner still deserves respect. (8) VALE DORI was the longshot beneficiary of the aforementioned runners’ no-show and as a Grade I winner at this distance the lone time she tried it, she has strung good efforts together before. Avoiding a speed duel will be key!
10 TENTH RACE (4:56 P.M. EST)
Longines Breeders’ Cup Turf (Grade I)
1 ½ Miles on the Turf for 3 year olds & up. Purse $4,000,000.00
(2) ENABLE is a 6 time Group I winning mare with over $8,000,000 in earnings at this distance. Catch her in the “Winners’ Circle”! (12) WALDGEIST lost his 4 race winning streak to ENABLE in the prestigious Qatar Prix de l’Arc de Triomphe last out but could complete the small exacta. (10) HI HAPPY usually runs well at this distance and could land a minor share. (7) GLORIOUS EMPIRE is a sentimental selection for 4th after earning a spot on my bio page after going wire to wire at $33.40 and as predicted in the Grade I Sword Dancer on the Travers undercard. He seeks his 4th straight so a share underneath is not beyond the realm of possibility!
11 ELEVENTH RACE (5:44 P.M. EST)
Breeders' Cup Classic (Grade I)
1 ¼ Miles on the Dirt for 3 year olds & up. Purse $6,000,000.00
(1) THUNDER SNOW may have thought he was home free last out in the Grade I Jockey Club Gold Cup as the longshot victor DISCREET LOVER closed very wide to catch him in the shadow of the wire! This 4 year old has always exhibited a bit of class as he won Group I events at ages 2, 3, and 4. Long time readers of LARRY’S PICKS know that top pick longshot winner FERDINAND was the last to win the Kentucky Derby from the rail back in 1986. While the rail at Churchill Downs is not the place to be on the 1st Saturday in May, these are mostly older horses and only a field of 14, not 20. THUNDER SNOW should be able to save ground early on and be in good striking position as they enter the stretch. “Upset special” courtesy of LARRY’S PICKS! (14) ACCELERATE drew widest of all for trainer John Sadler but the 4 time Grade I winner this year is still the one they all have to beat! (2) ROARING LION has also won 4 Group I Stakes this year but he will be making his debut on the dirt surface today. He too should enjoy a solid ground saving stalking journey and will have a chance to show how good he is. (3) CATHOLIC BOY drew inside the other prime speeds signed on and should be hustled from the gate. This Grade I winner on turf and dirt could go well for a share!