Code of Honor made me a huge believer with his trip/run last out and this is not typical placement for Shug. I think his going here versus staying in NY for the Nashau or whatever they run next speaks volumes. Probably have to use Baffert defensively but will use Kenny McPeek's Signalman in the exacta and tri.
Post by tenfurlongs on Oct 27, 2018 13:48:09 GMT -5
As of today no defections from the race. Code of Honor recovered well after poor start in Champagne, could not run down loose speed. Worked 46-flat on 9/23, Shug just doesn't do that. Needs hot pace up front and looks likely to get it. Complexity looked like the real thing at BEL, will face pace pressure from many others. Game Winner is undefeated Baffert colt, but didn't pull away from Gunmetal Gray through the stretch at SA, and race didn't look like the numbers it got. Playing against on the win end. If Tight Ten can rate just a bit, he could be around at the wire, held well into deep stretch at CD; working well there.
Most likely winner: Code of Honor (P).
Other win candidates: Complexity (E), Tight Ten (E).
Can use underneath: Gunmetal Gray (P), Game Winner (P).
Running Style: (E)= Early speed; (P)= Pace tracker; (S)= Sustained late run.
Quite the puzzle. From the inside out, Tight Ten (30/1) hasn't done much wrong and ran well at this distance and track in a big field. His problem may well be the plethora of speed signed up including his next door neighbor Well Defined (20/1) who has by far the gaudiest speed figures in the race. I'm not sure what he's been beating at GP in September but I hear Mike Smith has won a Breeders' Cup race or two. Complexity (5/2) has also done very well for himself and the Brown/Ortiz connections are pretty good from what I hear. HE also likes the front though. Game Winner (8/5) is undefeated and quick but, again, like the front end. Of the front runners, I think that Complexity has the best chance to clear. Will all of the speed wilt? If so, as a statistician I like another Chad Brown horse, Standard Deviation (12/1), to at least pick up a piece and maybe the whole thing.