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Post by cherokeescot on Jan 25, 2023 12:07:51 GMT -5
Saturday is Pegasus Day but Sunday is Mandatory Payout day which will be a much bigger pool
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tc
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Post by tc on Jan 25, 2023 12:10:00 GMT -5
shoot for sunday...hope it doesn't get hit Friday or Saturday.
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Post by Badactor on Jan 25, 2023 12:19:13 GMT -5
Big $$$ Sunday sounds good.
EDIT: after reading TW's post.
Big $$$ Saturday sounds good. Whichever way we go, I'm good
with all of us winning the Big $$$.
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Post by tenfurlongs on Jan 25, 2023 17:44:37 GMT -5
Sunday card R6-R11 looks unappetizing, class-wise and form-wise.
SALW mile turf 11 runners
MSW mile 1/16 dirt 9 runners
SHCP mile 1/8 AW 10 runners
AOCN1X 7F dirt 8 runners
AOCN2X mile turf 9 runners
MSW mile 1/16 turf 12 runners
Last Saturday, with an ordinary card, $243,000+ was bet into the carryover pool. If it is still live this Saturday, the pick-6 carryover pool will be close to a million or just over, and lots more will pour in with all stakes races in the sequence. Saturday.
TW
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Post by merasmag on Jan 25, 2023 17:59:34 GMT -5
i vote for sunday (with or without 200 on the saturday p4 if possible)
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eye123
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Post by eye123 on Jan 25, 2023 20:42:24 GMT -5
Saturday's card will be tough. If all six races are handicapped correctly the PK6 will pay extremely well. (all races 10+ runners) I guess the whole purpose of pooling was to go after this card. I vote for Saturday. (can understand those that want to go after the mandatory...but everybody will be of that mindset) Carryover as of today(wed night) $521,340. If not hit by Sat...the added money plus new money should be 2+ million. Nice sum to target.
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1hooper
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Post by 1hooper on Jan 25, 2023 21:49:22 GMT -5
Sat horses Sun football
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Post by cherokeescot on Jan 25, 2023 22:03:21 GMT -5
On mandatory-payout days, the entire Rainbow 6 jackpot pool is paid out to the bettor or bettors with the most winners in the wager’s six-race sequence. The carryover jackpot is usually only paid out when there is a single unique ticket sold with all six winners. On days when there is no unique ticket, 70 percent of that day’s pool usually goes back to those bettors holding tickets with the most winners, while 30 percent is carried over to the jackpot pool.
The Rainbow 6 carryover pool stood at $486,470 following Sunday’s program. Should the wager continued to go unsolved through Saturday’s Pegasus World Cup Day card, the Rainbow 6 pool could be expected to grow into the millions.
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Post by bobtailnag on Jan 26, 2023 1:04:15 GMT -5
Sunday because many of us will be praying that day anyway.
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Post by PonyGirlJCM on Jan 26, 2023 4:21:13 GMT -5
I’m just along for the ride… whatever you decide….
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Post by tenfurlongs on Jan 26, 2023 7:39:50 GMT -5
For some thoughts about playing on mandatory payout days: Begins at 22:00 inthemoneypodcast.com/professional-horseplayer-maury-wolff-speaksSmall bettors should want to play into pools when there aren't as many 'computer whales' participating. Either way, we'll never be a single ticket winner, because big group/money players will have covered the same combinations that we come up with, unless we bet two or three 50-1 shots across the sequence, which has a near-zero chance of occurring, and reduces our ability to cover enough more desirable/likely combos. Our best outcome probability is something like we did in the BC, but with two of our longer selections scoring, so something in the 5X-10X range. That pick-6 paid $3000 (plus some 5/6 consos.) Just keeping it real. TW
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5wide
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Post by 5wide on Jan 26, 2023 8:16:12 GMT -5
multiple payouts on Sunday < hitting it on Saturday.
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tc
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Post by tc on Jan 26, 2023 8:19:19 GMT -5
Listened to what he had to say...summary...mandatory jackpot payout days not necessarily as good a bet as one might think given the number of improbable options that big bettors can cover and the number of runners in pretty much impossible races to handicap. If you continue listening you also 'learn' that an even worse bet is betting into a jackpot pool on non mandatory days where the takeout is astronomical. My conclusion: if you are a small player who is trying to preserve bankroll while at the same time maximize opportunity (long term) then you should stay away from these wagers altogether. I don't really think any of this applies to this endeavour...this is not a long term endeavour...this is take a shot at a big payout and hope you get lucky...if it were a long term endeavour then I agree with maury and we should really not be betting into this pool on Saturday or Sunday or any other day.
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Post by tenfurlongs on Jan 26, 2023 8:28:15 GMT -5
Listened to what he had to say...summary...mandatory jackpot payout days not necessarily as good a bet as one might think given the number of improbable options that big bettors can cover and the number of runners in pretty much impossible races to handicap. If you continue listening you also 'learn' that an even worse bet is betting into a jackpot pool on non mandatory days where the takeout is astronomical. My conclusion: if you are a small player who is trying to preserve bankroll while at the same time maximize opportunity (long term) then you should stay away from these wagers altogether. I don't really think any of this applies to this endeavour...this is not a long term endeavour...this is take a shot at a big payout and hope you get lucky...if it were a long term endeavour then I agree with maury and we should really not be betting into this pool on Saturday or Sunday or any other day. Agree with all that you've concluded Tony. We are just taking a shot at getting lucky, and hopefully having fun while doing it. To get lucky, we have to hit all six winners. I think we have a better chance of doing that on Saturday than on Sunday, IMO. TW
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tc
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Post by tc on Jan 26, 2023 8:56:15 GMT -5
Listened to what he had to say...summary...mandatory jackpot payout days not necessarily as good a bet as one might think given the number of improbable options that big bettors can cover and the number of runners in pretty much impossible races to handicap. If you continue listening you also 'learn' that an even worse bet is betting into a jackpot pool on non mandatory days where the takeout is astronomical. My conclusion: if you are a small player who is trying to preserve bankroll while at the same time maximize opportunity (long term) then you should stay away from these wagers altogether. I don't really think any of this applies to this endeavour...this is not a long term endeavour...this is take a shot at a big payout and hope you get lucky...if it were a long term endeavour then I agree with maury and we should really not be betting into this pool on Saturday or Sunday or any other day. Agree with all that you've concluded Tony. We are just taking a shot at getting lucky, and hopefully having fun while doing it. To get lucky, we have to hit all six winners. I think we have a better chance of doing that on Saturday than on Sunday, IMO. TW Agree with you Tom that we may have a better shot of hitting it on Saturday (given the quality of races and the people who will be making the selections for the group and their specialties and/or preferences for race types) but I'm suggesting Sunday because I believe we have a close to zero chance of hitting it on either day and if we get lucky then I would prefer it to be on Sunday rather than Saturday given that Sunday is a mandatory payout day while Saturday is not. I'm okay with whatever is decided but just wanted to explain the logic behind my preference. That is why I liked Bev's idea of playing the late p4 on Saturday and playing the remainder into the P6 mandatory pool on Sunday.
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Post by spiderjohn on Jan 26, 2023 9:01:26 GMT -5
Wow after reading everything above----so Saturday or Sunday(it IS Friday...)?? I am not in this as of yet(too late?), but am willing for $100 if possible. If not possible, nbd, because I can play on my own Saturday without thinking about a p6(I might think about it Sunday if it is not hit and Saturday goes well(though I am with Hooper---Sat.racing Sun. football). Even if you hit Saturday, it won't be the solo winning ticket.
Was f'ing around with it this morning, and came up with this Saturday ticket: 1-4-7/4-6-10/1-3-6-7/2-3-4-6-9/1-6-7-8-10-11-12/4-5-10--less than $800 before possible scratches. Not confident and probably wasting a lot of $$.
Have to ? the discussion/plan here, let alone the handicapping shown which is all over the fields. Will be interesting to see how the uic situation plays out.....
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eye123
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Post by eye123 on Jan 26, 2023 9:10:22 GMT -5
Let's hit on Saturday....then take some of that and hit on Sunday.(no single Sat. ticket) (the optomist in me) (hitting would be great.....and the goal...but the "fun" factor should be recognized.....stakes card vs mediocre one at best) We hit on Saturday and the return will be significant. (plus, how many of us would even look at GP Sunday card if not for the mandatory...and what IF a single ticket takes it down on Saturday...we're left with playing a Sunday card at GP...or not at all ?)
Like most, happy with whatever the consensus decides.
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Post by cherokeescot on Jan 26, 2023 9:17:24 GMT -5
Wow after reading everything above----so Saturday or Sunday(it IS Friday...)?? I am not in this as of yet(too late?), but am willing for $100 if possible. If not possible, nbd, because I can play on my own Saturday without thinking about a p6(I might think about it Sunday if it is not hit and Saturday goes well(though I am with Hooper---Sat.racing Sun. football). Even if you hit Saturday, it won't be the solo winning ticket. Was f'ing around with it this morning, and came up with this Saturday ticket: 1-4-7/4-6-10/1-3-6-7/2-3-4-6-9/1-6-7-8-10-11-12/4-5-10--less than $800 before possible scratches. Not confident and probably wasting a lot of $$. Have to ? the discussion/plan here, let alone the handicapping shown which is all over the fields. Will be interesting to see how the uic situation plays out..... Steve, you can still get in if you PayPal me at Bev.hendry@yahoo.com Thanks for your input re the ticket Would like to see more thoughts on Saturday’s card from the rest of the group
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tc
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Post by tc on Jan 26, 2023 9:19:46 GMT -5
Is it Friday already?
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Post by cherokeescot on Jan 26, 2023 9:25:59 GMT -5
Thirty three members in the pool but only 9 votes so far.
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tc
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Post by tc on Jan 26, 2023 9:34:40 GMT -5
saturday: P6 (number of runners)
10*13*12*8*14*13 = approximately 2 million 272 thousand (less than $455 thousand @ 20cents to cover)
That suggests the P6 will be hit on Saturday but that is not really the issue. The issue is whether there will be a single ticket.
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tc
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Post by tc on Jan 26, 2023 10:09:03 GMT -5
Here is a quick and dirty P6 for Saturday which is the day I think we will end up playing...not my preference but I can see the writing on the wall.
1/2/3/4/5/7 3/5/6/7/11/13 1/3/7/9/13 2/3/6/7/9 3/5/6/7/10/12/13 1/3/5/7/10
6*6*5*5*7*5=31500*0.2=$6300
If I absolutely need to include a single in one leg of the sequence I would alter the ticket this way
1/2/3/4/5/7 3/5/6/7/11/13 1/3/7/9/13 2/3/6/7/9 6 1/3/5/7/10
6*6*5*5*1*5=4500*0.2=$900
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Post by spiderjohn on Jan 26, 2023 10:45:08 GMT -5
Oops on Friday Am in fl where we only know if it is Saturday or Sunday Never thought about driving down to gp tomorrow(oops Saturday!)
Gl with whatever is decided $$ your way Bev Thanx!
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Post by Badactor on Jan 26, 2023 14:40:32 GMT -5
If you guys give me Reigning Spirit and Stiletto Boy, we could be the only ones to have it right on Saturday.
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Post by cherokeescot on Jan 26, 2023 15:58:43 GMT -5
I’m sure we could swing that since nobody else is coming up with any suggestions 😜
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Post by merasmag on Jan 26, 2023 16:18:12 GMT -5
I’m sure we could swing that since nobody else is coming up with any suggestions 😜 i have no prob with stiletto boy but REALLY think lady s should be a single (and still think a p4 should also be played with more coverage than the p6 ticket)
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Post by cherokeescot on Jan 26, 2023 16:27:10 GMT -5
Lady Speightspeare will definitely be on the P6 ticket but to single a 6-1 shot seems.a very high risk strategy to me. . We will also consider playing the Pick 4 Saturday
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Post by merasmag on Jan 26, 2023 16:42:03 GMT -5
she is third choice ml and i don't see anyone else with a 111. if chalk is played every race the outcome will be as poor as last time; i thought the objective was to be the single ticket. I would go in on this (not even knowing who anyone but the single IS)
1/2/3/4/5/7
3/5/6/7/11/13
1/3/7/9/13
2/3/6/7/9
6
1/3/5/7/10
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Post by tenfurlongs on Jan 26, 2023 16:44:30 GMT -5
If we decide to do Saturday's card:
leg#1- 3,4,10
leg#2- 4,5,11
leg#3- 1,3,6
leg#4- 3,6,9
leg#5- 3,4,6,10
leg#6- 1,5,10
TW
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Post by merasmag on Jan 26, 2023 17:05:58 GMT -5
my speed ticket---4,5,7/4,6,7,9/3,4,6,7,9,11/2,3,6/6/2,4,5,7 edit-ok 10f...i'm gonna play THIS-4/4/3,6/3,6/6/5. these are the horselets(TM) we each picked in the end
the one's we picked first round 4,5,7 4,6,7 3,7,9 2,3,6 6 5,7 winner winner chicken dinner!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!! how much is this? will you play one bev?
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