LARRY'S PICKS for Saratoga on Friday, August 31st!

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I've had some people reach out to me about closing weekend at the Spa and after enjoying a solid Travers weekend I've decided to book back into Lake George from Thursday to Saturday expecting to be at the track for part or all of those 3 days. Having specific requests for the Friday card, full card analysis follows:

Welcome to the beautiful Saratoga Race Course, the oldest thoroughbred course in the country. Larry LaTour has analyzed the entire card for Friday August 31st, the 37th day of the 2018 meeting. Hopefully the racing Gods will shine upon all who are reading this and win or lose, everyone has an enjoyable day here at the Spa!

For more than 30 years LARRY’S PICKS has provided Triple Crown, Travers Day, Breeders’ Cup and Saratoga private party group outings analysis as
“A GUIDELINE FOR INTELLIGENT SPECULATION”! Larry was a 4 time finalist in the “WORLD SERIES OF HANDICAPPING” at Penn National in the 90’s as well as being an 11 time qualifier for the “HORSE PLAYER WORLD SERIES”, a Las Vegas event that began in 2005! LARRY’S PICKS highest priced Grade I winning selections over the years include DOMEDRIVER ($54.00 and the “cold” exacta for $142.00 BC Mile) FERDINAND ($37.00 Kentucky Derby) SINGLETARY ($35.00 BC Mile) GLORIOUS EMPIRE ($33.40 Sword Dancer) TEXAS RED ($29.80 BC Juvenile) COLONIAL AFFAIR ($29.00 Belmont Stakes) SEA HERO ($27.00 Kentucky Derby) TOURIST ($26.80 and the “cold” superfecta for $4,448.00 BC Mile) WAVELL AVENUE ($22.00 BC F&M Sprint) TONALIST ($20.40 and the “cold” exacta for $348.00 Belmont Stakes) In addition, numerous IRS level scores have historically occupied the “Selection” page of LARRY’S PICKS, the largest of which was at Saratoga on Travers Day 2011 when the 4 runners from his analysis of the 3rd race combined for an $11,355.00 superfecta box. Most recently in the 2017 Belmont Stakes, LARRY’S PICKS “Selection” page yielded the $4,486.00 superfecta when his top pick TAPWRIT outran the other 3 horses occupying the analytical space.

While the major race days come and go, for year round stimulating conversation on horse racing in general visit the finest horse chat site on the entire worldwide web, www.UpInClass.com Good luck to all and may they all come back safe!

Larry LaTour
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1 FIRST RACE
1 1/16 Miles (INNER TURF) | State Bred | Fillies and Mares | 3 Year Olds & Up | MAIDEN SPECIAL WEIGHT | Purse: $75,000

(1) CHICLET’S DREAM has run 2nd in 3 consecutive outings and the $150,000.00 CITY ZIP filly should improve making her 3rd start of the year and 2nd route start over this course. She should be prominent throughout from her hedge draw and appears the one to beat for potent connections. (2) BARREL OF DESTINY has more experience than all others signed on and that’s not necessarily a good thing. That said, she owns the highest last out speed figure that was earned over a course with some “give” in it. She could get a good “stalk and kick” type of journey but she’ll need to take another step forward to better this rating. (5) DREAMERS AND ME made a late mild run in a sprint race on June 29th in her debut. Trainer Bruce Levine has good stats on the stretchout and she could go well beneath David Cohen.

2 SECOND RACE
1 1/8 Miles | Open | 3 Year Olds & Up | CLAIMING : $16,000 | Purse: $32,000

(4) APARTFROMTHECROWD goes turf to dirt and adds the hood making only his 2nd start since March of 2017. Thought highly enough to try a Grade III stakes after breaking his maiden, he is supposed to be better than these. He should attract play but is likely the one to beat. (5) PLAYWRIGHT was the beaten favorite at this level last out and while he could show good speed making his 2nd start since June and at this distance, he likes to settle for minor awards. He appears a must use, especially underneath in gimmicks! (6) SINGLE GEM stretches out to this route for the 1st time after being the beaten favorite against better on August 9th. He broke his maiden traveling ½ furlong shorter and the altered son of GEMOLOGIST may be better suited to routing. He should get a good stalking trip and play a part.

3 THIRD RACE
6 Furlongs | State Bred | Open | 3 Year Olds & Up | MAIDEN CLAIMING: $25,000 | Purse: $39,000

(7) GLOBAL IMPACT is a 4 year old son of TIZWAY who ran on well for 3rd in the August 6th debut at this level traveling slightly further. He had an eventful start that day that could have caused him to sulk but instead he stayed focused on the task at hand and immediate improvement is not beyond the realm of possibility. (1) THERESA’S BOY and (1A) CROSS MULTIPLY represent a coupled entry due to common ownership and while each of them has had several chances, either one could go well enough to gain a major share. (3) ONE MORE TOM is a pricey son of MORE THAN READY who drops for the 2nd straight race and adds the hood to the equation. He should be prominent throughout and could land a share.

4 FOURTH RACE
1 Mile | Fillies and Mares (INNER TURF) | 4 Year Olds & Up | ALLOWANCE OPTIONAL CLAIMING : $80,000 | Purse: $95,000

(4) MALIBU STACY removes the blinkers while stretching out from a sprint to a route, both events reflect as profitable angles for the trainer, George Weaver. A beaten favorite at the level last out, the daughter of TIZWAY may be fastest away from the gate today and she could control the pace in this compact but well matched field. (3) CANDY STORE joined the barn of trainer Christophe Clement after an eventful trip at this level on July 15th at Belmont. That was the 1st race this year for a filly who won a Group III event last September in Italy. 5 for 8 at the distance, she could go well beneath new rider Joel Rosario. (6) RYMSKA drops in class seeking her 4th straight win while returning from a 9 month sabbatical. The works are okay for her return but I get mixed messages given the race selection and multiple layoff lines. That said, the trainer has already wrapped up the meet training title and spots his stock where they belong. She may need a race but also could win this event from memory!

5 FIFTH RACE
5 1/2 Furlongs (TURF) | Fillies | 2 Year Olds | MAIDEN SPECIAL WEIGHT | Purse: $85,000

(8) LADY GRACE is a 2 year old filly by KANTHAROS who has been working long and hard since May for the debut. The usually high percentage trainer has had a tough meet with 10 times more slices than victories but he may have this one primed for a solid debut. (1) MALIBU MISCHIEF wheels back on 5 days rest while switching surfaces and jockeys. This filly by GOLDENCENTS showed keen speed after being fractious in the gate traveling ½ furlong shorter on the 26th and a similar early departure from the gate may serve her well in her 1st try on grass. (10) MY GIRL ROCKET debuts sporting well spaced A.M. works since June and for a trainer who can get one ready at 1st asking. She could go well from her wide slot. Note that there are some potentially dangerous runners on the “also eligible” list (11, 12 & 14) who would deserve a look if scratches allow them to load the gate!

6 SIXTH RACE
7 Furlongs | Open | 3 Year Olds & Up | CLAIMING : $16,000 | Purse: $32,000

(8) MANIPULATED ships from Finger Lakes dropping in class with his regular rider tagging along. The 5 year old MALIBU MOON gelding has run well twice over this dirt track albeit sans a victory. Drawn wide, the jockey should be able to gauge the pace scenario and fall into a “stalk and pounce” type of journey. He is worth a long look at what should be a decent price. (3) SCARF IT DOWN drops slightly after an even run over a track that had some moisture in it on August 5th. A previous winner here and at this distance, he could go well with Luis Saez retaining the mount. (6) DIVINE INTERVENTIO closed powerfully to upend a slightly cheaper bunch at a slightly shorter trip on July 30th. He could be running on best in the late stages given an honest early pace!

7 SEVENTH RACE
6 Furlongs | Fillies and Mares | 3 Year Olds & Up | MAIDEN SP.WT. | Purse: $85,000

(2) TIPAZAR ships from Churchill for Ron Moquett with a purposeful work tab on display. The potential Keeneland bargain purchase for $45,000.00 may pay some early dividends given a good trip herein. (5) BIG BIRTHDAY makes her 3rd start of the year and Castellano should have gotten a gauge of the talent level when he first rode the filly on July 22nd. She could be right there on the slight cutback. (7) FRENCH EMPIRE exits the same race as my 2nd choice who she beat that day while finishing 3rd. She is another who may go better at this shorter sprint distance.

8 EIGHTH RACE
6 Furlongs | Fillies and Mares | 3 Year Olds & Up | ALLOWANCE | Purse: $87,000

(7) NAPLES PRINCESS makes her 2nd start back from a May break for the potent connections of Mott and Alvarado. She closed mildly but extremely wide on August 2nd to miss by a couple lengths and an A.M. move on August 15th jumps off the page as to her likely being ready to move forward. In a race that should have an honest pace setup I look for her to make the last run a winning one! (10) DANCING ALL NIGHT adds the hood while making her 3rd start of the year, all at this level. The beaten favorite traveling a furlong further last out, she has run 2nd all 3 times she met the starter at Saratoga. She will attract tote support and despite the cutback, she may again complete the exacta! (8) TREASURE IN HEAVEN returns from a near 9 month layoff for a trainer who can get one ready for the comeback and it’s significant to note she’s armed with “bullets” in the holster. The daughter of Travers winner STREET SENSE may like it here. (4) SPECIAL RELATIVITY cuts back slightly off a victory on July 30th and projects to rally from mid-pack. She could run by them all with a well timed move! (11) QUICK QUICK QUICK has more trouble lines in her P.P.’s than a repeat felon! She broke her maiden in completing the “cold” early “Pick 5” I gave out last August 27th and if she can stay out of her own way she could garner a share while cutting back to her best distance!

9 NINTH RACE
Lucky Coin Stakes | 5 1/2 Furlongs (TURF) | Restricted | Open | 4 Year Olds & Up | Purse: $100,000

(3) ROCKET HEAT never had an anxious moment in getting the best of mid priced claimers last out and the works since suggest there are no ill effects from the effort. He should be forwardly placed throughout and can take another. (7) EXTRAVAGANT KID exits a very fast heat at Ellis Park on August 5th ultimately beaten by ½ length. The unlucky trainer here so far could be ready to break through for a “Kodak Moment”! (8) POCKET CHANGE has faced some good ones in his brief career and could be in line for a share from a stalking posture. (6) BIG ROCK is the veritable “horse for the course” but in returning from a June break, he often needs a tightener before showing his best!

10 TENTH RACE
7 Furlongs | Fillies and Mares | 3 Year Olds & Up | CLAIMING : $25,000 | Purse: $44,000

(3) CLAIRE’S KITTY goes “turf to dirt” while turning back to a distance she is superbly bred for. Trainer Phil Bauer usually spots his stock well with limited starters and this daughter of GHOSTZAPPER should feel right at home at this level. Drawn well enough to save some ground early on, she should be rolling as they enter the stretch! (4) HEAVEN’S CREATION was claimed out of a route event on August 1st against slightly cheaper where she could do no better than 3rd as the beaten favorite. Camera shy for sure at 1 for 14, she nonetheless consistently hits the board and should be used in exotics, especially underneath! (8) SHE’SAKITTYKAT finished well despite trouble at this level last out. Like my top pick, she may also be closing with authority if inheriting a clean trip on the stretchout. (2) TIMELESS BEAUTY broke her Maiden against cheap claimers in the mud last out and now faces winners for the 1st time, often a daunting task. That said, she usually runs her race and could be a player in the gimmicks!

LL