If the kids don't fall far from the Belmont tree, I'd have to put some cash down on Hofburg. Once you get to the 4th generation, the Belmont winners don't usually bring a lot to the gene pool. In that respect Hofburg stands out. He's on A P Indy top and bottom three generations back and he's go Touch Gold two back. Free Drop Billy is from Union Rags so that counts for something. If you want to go back as far as the 4th generation A P Indy shows up in Tenfold's tree.
Post by hezethebest on Jun 6, 2018 14:37:03 GMT -5
While not an actual Belmont winner I like the potential stamina influence that might flow from STORM BIRD who also shows up in the 4th generation for FREE DROP BILLY on the damside. Trensa has dropped 12 furlong winners in the past most recently with HAWKBILL winning the Dubai Sheema Classic, albeit as a 5 year old. When gauging if the new distance might impact any the most and also looking for value it's hard to leave out FREE DROP BILLY on potential. JMHO.
Post by mysaladdays on Jun 6, 2018 16:00:54 GMT -5
Like the AP but not on the bottom; yes, influences are important but it really depends exactly WHERE they fall.
For derby I would not have touched Montauk (if he had run) or Patch. That top and bottom is absolutely dreadful for the Derby. But for Belmont a completely different story.
It takes many many years of keeping records of BMS sires on both sides, and 4-5 generations of where things are before you get a sense of who is going to have to buck history to land 1st or 2nd. I know a few people who are pretty good at it, I'm not as good of a record keeper though. I keep meaning to get around to making my database, but then life gets in the way. d
Post by DoctorDisaster on Jun 6, 2018 17:26:11 GMT -5
I agree with LL here.FDB has the goods for 12f.I always liked him but man he's let me down $$(there's your lock,Doc off).The only chink in Hofburg is his running style.He'll need the pace but he will be motoring best late.It's Irad's call, he needs his best.Hofburg has a great turn of foot.Almost makes me think he would roll on turf.Hofburg comes in with an ascending BRIS last race/late pace fig.That's an angle I'm a sucker for.Maybe I said that wrong because they hit well.His Derby number was 99 which is very good.Justify's was 83 in comparison.Baffert's other Restoring Hope comes in big for the distance.I for sure will play a BB exacta just for fun.Hey if your hot your hot.I'm leaning towards Hofburg right now.You never know until race time.That's when it gets serious for me.Gots to see em. GL