Justify - T-graph 0-2-?

[gam]

Thorograph has posted their Preakness #s on their site and if I'm not mistaken Justify is a classic 0-2 where the 0 is a top and the 2 is a race roughly 2 points slower. The significance of this is frequently an 0-2 leads to an "x" race, a race several points off the top. While an x is certainly not a given, if you're looking for a reason to play against Justify, T-graph just gave it to you.

[1hooper]

Interesting read because the last two were on off tracks. That being said,a 3yo pattern similar to Justify’s this time of year will produce 15% tops,40%pairs,30%off races and 15% X’s. My eye says an off or x in the Belmont. Betting opportunity.
Hoping to hear from the other forum ‘Graph guys on their read.
Hooper

[gam]

I plan to look at the archives to examine 0-2s in the Derby-Preakness and see what they did in the Belmont, but just looking at last year, Looking At Lee was essentially 0-2 and X-ed in the Belmont. LAL was 0.5, 3 then 10.25. Looks like Vino Rosso is also 0-2 but at least has the luxury of 5 weeks between races.

[eye123]

Jon Hardoon, Ragozin sheets(30 yrs) said “ I’m telling you now,I don’t think Justify wins the triple crown” (prime sports)

[big18741]

Baffert doesn't run a lot of horses in the Belmont stakes.
Only 10 starters with record of 2-3-0-1 so 50% in the exacta which ain't too shabby.

On Thorograph his runners have 1 new top,3 pair ups,2 off races and 4 X's

I don't see anything in his pedigree that says he'll want 12 f's but you could make the case that AP had worse bloodlines at the distance.

Of his four horses that were going for the Triple Crown AP won the Belmont with an off race(-0.5) repeating his Preakness,War Emblem went backwards some in the Preakness then X'd in the Belmont,Real Quiet moved forward in the Preakness then repeated it in the Belmont,and Silver Charm moved forward in the Derby then repeated that race in the next two.

I can't auto play Justify for an X.More likely I'll play him for a repeat of the Preakness(0.5)but I do consider the possibility he won't fire.

The winner of the Belmont in most years will run anywhere in the TG range of between a 2 and a -1.
What makes this years edition most interesting is that a majority of the field has run those type figures in at least one race in their careers.

Obviously the 12f's distance will separate these out but this is a competitive field on paper going in.

I'm against Justify for the most part but I'm not ready to plug in an 0-2-X off the board finish for him and certainly not for Vino Rosso.
Pletcher has been too good in this race to toss off a pattern.

[nolazag]

In case anyone's interested, there's a nice post of TG board this morning with figs for horses going from (1) Derby and Preakness to Belmont and (2) Derby to Belmont.  Very few horses in the first category moved forward or paired their Preakness number.  Pharoah paired his Preakness fig of -0.5, which was a regression of 2.5 from his derby fig.  A significant number of those in category two moved forward or paired their Derby number, including Tapwrit, Irish War Cry, and Paych last year; Creator in 2016; and Keen Ice in 2015. 

[gam]

Did see those posts. Will have to grab the data from those and see if I can discern any trends. Currently focusing mostly on horses running in all three races as the key here is Justify. Query: when was DWL's last Belmont win? Last win in any of the three? Off to Google I go.



Edit: well, according to Wikipedia apparently Oxbow in 2013 Preakness (I don't even remember that one) and Commendable in the 2000 Belmont.   

[mysaladdays]

May 26, 2018 12:06:23 GMT -5 nolazag said:

In case anyone's interested, there's a nice post of TG board this morning with figs for horses going from (1) Derby and Preakness to Belmont and (2) Derby to Belmont.  Very few horses in the first category moved forward or paired their Preakness number.  Pharoah paired his Preakness fig of -0.5, which was a regression of 2.5 from his derby fig.  A significant number of those in category two moved forward or paired their Derby number, including Tapwrit, Irish War Cry, and Paych last year; Creator in 2016; and Keen Ice in 2015. 

How about just Preakness to Belmont?   Was wondering about figs for THAT or is that included in (1)?.

[nolazag]

Quick glance at the TG archives going back to 2009 shows every colt who ran in Preakness but not Derby went backward in the Belmont. Includes the following: Senior Investment, Multiplier, Stradivari, Cherry Wine, Tale of Verve, Isn't He Perfect, and First Dude.

[mysaladdays]

Jun 3, 2018 1:57:53 GMT -5 nolazag said:

Quick glance at the TG archives going back to 2019 shows every colt who ran in Preakness but not Derby went backward in the Belmont. Includes the following: Senior Investment, Multiplier, Stradivari, Cherry Wine, Tale of Verve, Isn't He Perfect, and First Dude.

Going back to when?      I assume you mean 2009 or something?

Thanks for this. 

[nolazag]

Sorry--meant to say 2009. By the way, most of those colts bounced, going backward at least 2 and usually many more points. The question for this year is: Will Tenfold follow this pattern of regressions? Asmussen says his horse is on the improve, but I'm skeptical. I will only play him underneath if the odds are long. Will likely key the Derby runners that skipped the Preakness--Hofburg and Vino Rosso.

Wasn't Touch Gold the last colt to skip the derby then win the Belmont after running in the Preakness?

[writethatdown]

I'm FAR (and I mean FAR) from someone who knows Thorograph figures well (if at all). But this thread got me interested in those trends. I went back to the last 10 years of triple crown races (2008-2017) and this is what I came up with:

10 Horses have skipped the Kentucky Derby, then run in the Preakness and Belmont:

9/10 have regressed (with a minimum of a 3 point regression for all) (Luv Guv was the only exception in 2009 going from a 5 in preakness to a 3 in belmont)

42 Horses have run in the Kentucky Derby and then Belmont while skipping Preakness:

17/42 improved
19/42 regressed
6/42 stayed the same


17 Horses have run in all 3 legs of the Triple Crown.

If that horse IMPROVED from Kentucky Derby to Preakness THEN in Belmont: 0/8 improved, 6/8 regressed, 2/8 stayed the same
If that horse REGRESSED from Kentucky Derby to Preakness THEN in Belmont: 1/7 improved, 4/7 regressed, 2/7 stayed the same
If that horse STAYED THE SAME from Kentucky Derby to Preakness THEN in Belmont: 1/2 improved, 1/2 regressed


What this all really means I guess is that when your kids are sleeping and your wife goes out for her friends birthday you have too much time on your hands!

Also...if I made a mistake, don't kill me!

[gam]

Will be interesting to see the figs but, obviously, no X.

[longshot]

Roughly speaking, Beyer 100 = TG 1, at about 118 pounds
Justify was given a 101 Beyer for the Belmont and carried 126 pounds.
So an educated guess would be a (-1)

[gam]

Justify's T-graph # won't get any help from ground loss but won't be shocked if it's a new top.

[gam]

Well, figs out on T-graph site. No new top - paired the Preakness #. From a number perspective, Justify won because no one could throw a fast enough race at him and, for the reasons discussed in the other thread, Justify got a perfect trip. Of course, maybe he could've run faster if he needed.

[1hooper]

Did you see the # Mind Your Biscuits ran?
Hooper

[gam]

I did, Hoop, and it makes me question their results some, but figure making is not an easy exercise.