BC Turf Sprint- discussion & selections

[tenfurlongs]

www.breederscup.com/races/turf-sprint

TW

[gam]

I obviously missed something, but what happened to World Of Trouble? Assumed he’d be in this race. Was he injured?

[1hooper]

Foot bruising according to the owner. "Since we couldn't make the Breeders' Cup due to a foot bruise, we decided it's best for him to start making babies."

DRF
Hill 'n' Dale announced in June that it had acquired the rights to the 4-year-old colt, who was campaigned by Michael Dubb, Madaket Stables, and Bethlehem Stables, and said that the partnership would continue to race the horse through 2020. However, the son of Hill 'n' Dale stallion Kantharos was sidelined over the summer, and with the Breeders' Cup and other major targets off the table, it was opted to retire him.

[elkurzhal]

GAM - World of Trouble was going to miss the race with a foot bruise and has been retired to stud.

[elkurzhal]

thinking out loud....

Imprimis - two figs last year that would win. hasn't matched them this year. worked 14 days after the Kentucky Downs race, but still hasn't worked since the keeneland race on 10/5 (23 days and counting)

Fairyland(IRE) - note the bris contender pp's posted here last week have the other Fairyland. (Ire) version is much better, but has never raced around a turn. From the replays, She (3yo filly will get 5 lbs from the old men in the field) breaks pretty well and seems to settle nice then finish pretty well, not explosive, but very determined. I like her a lot here, but worry a bit about the turn.

[gam]

Inquiring minds might want to know, apparently they can run 5.5 Fs on the turf there since Race 1 on Saturday is listed at that distance, yet they are running this race at 5Fs. I'm guessing this is because 5.5 Fs won't wok with the number of entrants for the Turf Sprint.

[gallantbob]

Turf sprints my worst category.  Usually if I can’t go deep, I’ll pass or single.  Think I can go deep here but I am interested in Imprimus.  Clearly fast enough and victimized by bad trips, especially two back at KD.  First pass has him as an A, with everyone else a?

[elkurzhal]

Watched a couple 5f replays GAM and they seem to be backed up pretty much the lengh of the stretch. 5.5 would really be cramming the gate into the turn with limited loading area and probably a temp rail on the inside.

By the speed figures, this is probably Pure Sensation's race to loose, but her best running has been at Parx which always raises some questions, but Clement seems like a squeeky clean guy so maybe he just likes it there. A couple of those were on soft going too, which he won't get here. Still his speed and inside draw, insure a good trip. Hard to hammer him confidently, but the most likely winner.

The Mare on the outside Belvior Bay has my interest at 12-1. Proven against top company with 2nds in this race last year and Dubai, and gets to stay home for this one. After Dubai has a off the turf race with a stumble out of the gate and wheeled back 2 weeks later at Belmont in the Juniper. Took some time off and has trained up to this. Last two works have been on the same day as OM (another of Millers 3 in here) and been about a second quicker. I think Miller's jock preference is Prat (Stubbins), Rosario (Eddie Haskell), Paco (Pure Sensation) then Javy (Belvoir Bay) than anyone he can get. Easy to see the top three not jumping, but a little perplexed by Prat not being on her though. Javy probably had his pick of the Millers and is on her and they are hitting at 27%.

[gam]

Configurations of tracks is always interesting. With that long stretch (elongated oval?) CD was able to fit in a 5.5 F turf sprint despite the one-mile circumference of the main. At 9 Fs, apparently all they can fit in at Saratoga is the same 5.5 F distance. I haven't followed SA much at all (but was aware they stopped the down the hill 6.5 F sprint), so I was surprised to see races being run at 5.5 F. Have to think that they can't run it for a full field, though, otherwise they probably would run this at the 5.5.

[elkurzhal]

On that topic GAM - the FMT starts midway though the downhill turn, and the Turf starts right at the beginning of the downhill turn.

the first today is a 5.5 on the turf, with a field of 9 (scratched to 8) - we'll have to tune in and check it out.

[gam]

I wasn’t aware that they were still using the downhill part for the routes til this week. I’d assume they feel it’s ok because, unlike the sprint, they won’t be running full tilt at that point in the race.

[shoes]

Oct 31, 2019 13:46:18 GMT -5 gam said:

I wasn’t aware that they were still using the downhill part for the routes til this week. I’d assume they feel it’s ok because, unlike the sprint, they won’t be running full tilt at that point in the race.

Gam- that is indeed the assumption. crossing dirt might bother the Euros though.

[gam]

And Yet, plenty of Euros have won BC races at SA crossing the dirt track.

[shoes]

Oct 31, 2019 18:45:03 GMT -5 gam said:

And Yet, plenty of Euros have won BC races at SA crossing the dirt track.

Good point. I guess it would be just as likely to bother North American horses who have not raced at SA anyway. Never mind.

[ozzy]

Clueless here, treading lightly but like Totally Boss with Legends of War, and Eddie Haskell, and maybe the mare Belvoir Bay

[elkurzhal]

So Imprimis shipped back to Florida after his last, no published works bothers me still, but xbtv has video of him jogging, and a work from September, looks noticeably more muscled up now. Seems to find trouble, but think he is the best horse in here.

[orioleboy]

I’m with you Eric. I’m all over Imprimis. Maybe a touch light on class but the best in here at the distance and on figs. Hoping for 10-1.
Good Luck
Steve

[elkurzhal]

sigh.... not a great idea to change it up at the 11th hour...