LARRY'S PICKS for the 144th Kentucky Derby!
May 3, 2018 9:27:05 GMT -5
Post by hezethebest on May 3, 2018 9:27:05 GMT -5
Analysis of the field for the 144th KENTUCKY DERBY, the most exciting 2 minutes in sports! A full field of 20 colts expect to answer the starters’ call seeking the fame and glory that accompanies a victory in the “RUN FOR THE ROSES”. As usual, my analysis will be in the order of favoritism as I see the betting public setting the post time odds, with my personal “Selection” page on display at the end. I hope you enjoy the 144th KENTUCKY DERBY!
For more than 30 years LARRY’S PICKS has provided Triple Crown, Travers Day, Breeders’ Cup and Saratoga private party group outings analysis as
“A GUIDELINE FOR INTELLIGENT SPECULATION”! Larry was a 4 time finalist in the “WORLD SERIES OF HANDICAPPING” at Penn National in the 90’s as well as being an 11 time qualifier for the “HORSE PLAYER WORLD SERIES”, a Las Vegas event that began in 2005! LARRY’S PICKS highest priced Grade I winning selections over the years include DOMEDRIVER ($54.00 and the “cold” exacta for $142.00 BC Mile) FERDINAND ($37.00 Kentucky Derby) SINGLETARY ($35.00 BC Mile) TEXAS RED ($29.80 BC Juvenile) COLONIAL AFFAIR ($29.00 Belmont Stakes) SEA HERO ($27.00 Kentucky Derby) TOURIST ($26.80 and the “cold” superfecta for $4,448.00 BC Mile) WAVELL AVENUE ($22.00 BC F&M Sprint) TONALIST ($20.40 and the “cold” exacta for $348.00 Belmont Stakes) In addition, numerous IRS level scores have historically occupied the “Selection” page of LARRY’S PICKS, the largest of which was at Saratoga on Travers Day 2011 when the 4 runners from his analysis of the 3rd race combined for an $11,355.00 superfecta box. Most recently in the 2017 Belmont Stakes, LARRY’S PICKS “Selection” page yielded the $4,486.00 superfecta when his top pick TAPWRIT outran the other 3 horses occupying the analytical space.
While the major race days come and go, for year round stimulating conversation on horse racing in general visit the finest horse chat site on the entire world wide web, www.UpInClass.com! Good luck to all and may they all come back safe!
Larry LaTour
llatour1@twcny.rr.com
(#7) JUSTIFY 3-1 JOCKEY – MIKE SMITH
This lightly raced son of SCAT DADDY has won his 3 lifetime starts by a combined 19 lengths including a 3 length wire job in the Grade I Santa Anita Derby last out. Solid connections including 4 time Derby winning trainer Bob Baffert hope there is enough foundation to carry this classy chestnut colt the 1 ¼ mile distance, his inexperience notwithstanding. He is 1 of 2 undefeated colts who will try to break the “curse of Apollo” the reference to the last Kentucky Derby winner who had not raced as a 2 year old. Apollo won this race in 1882. While trying to end that streak he will also hope to extend the streak of post time favorites winning this race to 6 years straight. I make him 1 of 3 primary speed types and he may be the one to catch as they turn for home!
(#16) MAGNUM MOON 9-2 JOCKEY – LUIS SAEZ
The other undefeated runner at 4 for 4 is this son of MALIBU MOON who as a May foal, is 1 of the youngest of this 3 year old crop. Relatively untested in his 4 race career, he exits a pacesetting victory in the Grade I Arkansas Derby 3 weeks back. 1 of 4 runners being saddled by trainer Todd Pletcher, he should be 1 of several employing a stalking posture and he could garner a share with a clean trip and a well timed move.
(#5) AUDIBLE 5-1 JOCKEY – JAVIER CASTELLANO
This New York bred is another Pletcher runner who made a strong late run to victory in the Grade I Florida Derby last out. That was his 4th straight victory and he showed some style versatility when compared to his prior victories where he was much closer to the pace. Several maintenance breezes are on display since his last and Castellano chose him over BOLT D’ORO but in all fairness Javier rides, and wins a lot for Mr. Pletcher so that may simply be from a loyalty perspective. With all due respect I personally think Castellano chose the wrong mount but time will tell!
(#14) MENDELSSOHN 5-1 JOCKEY – RYAN MOORE
At $3,000,000.00 this son of SCAT DADDY is the most expensive purchase to load the gate on Saturday. Like MAGNUM MOON he is a May foal and may still have some developing ahead of him to catch up to some of these. That said, he showed his class early on in winning the Grade I Breeders’ Cup Juvenile Turf last November at Del Mar, barely 3 weeks after running 2nd in a Group I affair at Newmarket. He exits an overpowering performance in the Group II UAE Derby on March 31st and assuming he shipped well again, he should be forwardly placed and he could prove to be formidable as he seeks his 4th straight victory.
(#11) BOLT D’ORO 7-1 JOCKEY – VICTOR ESPINOZA
This Kentucky bred by MEDALIA D’ORO exhibited precocity in winning his first 3 starts on the West Coast as a 2 year old, including 2 Grade I Stakes. He shows a number of trouble lines in his past performances yet he has never been out of the money in 6 lifetime starts including 4 victories. 2nd while chasing a loose on the lead JUSTIFY last out in the Santa Anita Derby, he may get a better pace set up this time out and he projects for a “stalk and pounce” type journey. Despite the defection of Castellano to AUDIBLE I think he is possibly the 1 to beat and he could give Victor Espinoza his 4th Kentucky Derby winner!
(#6) GOOD MAGIC 8-1 JOCKEY – JOSE ORTIZ
This colt by CURLIN accomplished 1 of the rarer feats in racing by breaking his maiden in a Stakes race. Narrowly beaten in his first 2 lifetime starts, he captured the Grade I Breeders’ Cup Juvenile last November 4th at Del Mar getting the best of several who are signed on today! The $1,000,000.00 Keeneland purchase has already banked nearly twice that amount and is in good hands facing his greatest test to date. The winner of the Grade I Bluegrass Stakes last out is 1 of several deserving of respect.
(#18) VINO ROSSO 11-1 JOCKEY – JOHN VELAZQUEZ
The Grade II Wood Memorial winner gets the services of John Velazquez who clearly had other options. Drawn wide, I would expect Velazquez to employ completely different tactics than he used last year when controlling the pace on the front end with ALWAYS DREAMING. With an April 27th surface “bullet” in tow, this son of CURLIN will likely look to drop down inside to save some ground hoping to unleash a strong late run when the serious running begins. Not impossible for a piece, but I would look for him late, if at all!
(#4) FLAMEAWAY 13-1 JOCKEY – JOSE LEZCANO
This Canadian bred has the most lifetime victories with 5 and he has won on dirt, turf and synthetic. 2nd to GOOD MAGIC last out in the Bluegrass, if you like 1 of them you probably should like both of them. A “stalker” by nature, he should be in striking position as they enter the stretch and he will have every chance to prove he is this good. I have complete respect for the connections and I note strong works on display since his last but others appear more likely for the top spots!
(#19) NOBLE INDY 16-1 JOCKEY – FLORENT GEROUX
The 3rd Pletcher runner exits a victory in the Grade II Louisiana Derby 6 weeks back where he continued to show an ascending speed figure pattern. An improving sort, he must take another step forward in order to challenge the best of the division and I suspect that a minor award might be his ceiling.
(#9) HOFBURG 19-1 JOCKEY – IRAD ORTIZ
This Kentucky bred February foal by TAPIT is yet another sporting an ascending speed figure pattern but with only 3 lifetime starts under his belt he concedes much in the way of experience. 2nd in the Grade I Florida Derby last out, solid connections anticipate another forward move might be on the horizon and so they will give him a shot herein. He would seemingly need clever handling and a solid early pace to show his best yet I’m intrigued by his mere presence while being saddled by a trainer who is generally patient with his runners and not necessarily known for seeking the limelight that Derby day can bring. He seems to clearly be a potential “surprise package” capable of exploding the value in the exotics!
(#12) ENTICED 23-1 JOCKEY – JUNIOR ALVARADO
2nd last out in the Grade II Wood Memorial as the betting favorite, this Kentucky bred by MEDAGLIO D’ORO has kept good company throughout his career and owns a local score as a 2 year old in the important Grade II Kentucky Jockey Club Stake last November 25th. Bred well enough for the stretchout and in good hands, he may nonetheless have to invent a trip in order to show us his best!
(#13) BRAVAZO 26-1 JOCKEY - LUIS CONTRERAS
This January foal won the Grade II Risen Star in his penultimate start before faltering last out in the Louisiana Derby. He broke his maiden over this track surface travelling a flat mile last September 17th and his sire won the BC Classic at this distance and over this surface in 1998. Long time readers of LARRY’S PICKS will recall scoring the Classic trifecta box from my “Selection” page that day. He hasn’t run as fast as many of these to date but based on his affinity for the surface alone he could be used underneath in exotics.
(#17) SOLOMINI 27-1 JOCKEY – FLAVIEN PRAT
This consistent son of CURLIN has but the maiden victory to his credit in 6 lifetime starts. He did actually cross the wire first another time in the Grade I Los Alamitos Futurity only to face the wrath of the stewards. While consistency can be a good thing it can also be viewed in a negative light. He sports 5 consecutive speed figures within a few points of one another when ideally we would want to see steady progression. He has worked swiftly in the A.M. typical of Baffert trainees but unless the new distance moves him up significantly, he clearly appears the weaker of the Baffert runners and a mid pack finish may await him.
(#1) FIRENZE FIRE 31-1 JOCKEY – PACO LOPEZ
One of the more experienced runners in the field making his 10th lifetime start, this Florida bred by POSEIDON’S WARRIOR drew the dreaded rail post position. I mention nearly every year the fact that when I gave out FERDINAND in 1986 as my lone Kentucky Derby selection I knew that when he won it would be the first time in 40+ years that a horse won from the rail post position. It also hasn’t happened since although LOOKIN AT LEE made it interesting last year. FIRENZE FIRE at least runs best when patiently handled early on and then making 1 late run so if Paco is reading this, that needs to be your strategy. He appears to have too much to overcome in order to make an impact.
(#2) FREE DROP BILLY 36-1 JOCKEY – ROBBY ALBARADO
Albarado climbs aboard this UNION RAGS colt for the first time since a 9th place finish in the Breeders’ Cup Juvenile last November 4th. He was aloft for the colts first 5 races and both lifetime victories including the Maiden breaker over the Churchill main track. Irad Ortiz was aboard for the troubled trip in the Bluegrass last out where a show placing was ultimately awarded but Ortiz opts to ride HOFBURG today. Like the rail, this can be a tough post position to overcome but at least the drop back style usually employed by the horse should suit him.
(#10) MY BOY JACK 38-1 JOCKEY – KENT DESORMEAUX
This years “rags to riches” story has to be about MY BOY JACK! No matter Saturday’s results, this $20,000.00 Keeneland purchase has banked $645,145.00 in 10 lifetime starts! The Kentucky bred by CREATIVE CAUSE gets the services of regular rider Kent Desormeaux who is no stranger to the Kentucky Derby “Winners’ Circle” having experienced the post race “Kodak Moment” 3 times. Trained by brother Keith, the Grade III Lexington winner last out will need to avoid traffic through the lane but could crash the superfecta with some racing luck!
(#8) LONE SAILOR 40-1 JOCKEY – JAMES GRAHAM
This Kentucky bred by MAJESTIC WARRIOR is another of my 8 projected “closers” in this 20 horse field. This type is always at the mercy of the pace as well as needing a clear lane to close into even when given the right pace scenario. 2nd in the Grade II Louisiana Derby last out, he also ran 2nd in the non graded Street Sense Stakes last October 29th over this track surface. Graham has ridden him well in his last 2 races and may now have a gauge of the talent level. He appears to be yet another who could figure in the bottom of the gimmicks!
(#3) PROMISES FULFILLED 45-1 JOCKEY – COREY LANERIE
This speedy son of SHACKLEFORD pulled the upset in the Grade II Fountain of Youth Stakes 2 back before setting the early pace and stopping badly in the Florida Derby last out. New rider Lanerie will climb aboard for the first time with solid A.M. surface works on display. His style is no secret and especially from his inside post draw you can expect him to be hustled to the lead as the gates open. He could be dangerous if left alone on the lead but he probably doesn’t get that luxury. Those who like him should certainly get an early thrill but he may back up when the serious running occurs!
(#20) COMBATANT 53-1 JOCKEY – RICARDO SANTANA
The good news about this son of SCAT DADDY is that he broke his Maiden over this track surface last October 29th. The bad news is that he hasn’t won since having finished 2nd 3 times in minor Stakes and then 3rd and 4th respectively in the major Arkansas preps. He has been beaten by a few of these already and anything more than a minor placing would be a surprise!
(#15) INSTILLED REGARD 58-1 JOCKEY – DRAYDEN VAN DYKE
The connections of this Kentucky bred by ARCH have given off mixed messages in the 4 weeks since he was beaten 10+ lengths in the Santa Anita Derby. Immediately following that race trainer Jerry Hollendorfer declared him off the Derby trail. Then on April 20th Hollendorfer did an about face and said “the colt will be ready in case there are defections”! One gets the impression that this may be an owner’s call to run the $1,000,000.00 purchase on Saturday. Those who believe will certainly get a big price!
(#21) BLENDED CITIZEN (A.E.) JOCKEY – KYLE FREY
The lone “also eligible” entry this year would need a scratch from the main body of the race by Friday morning in order to compete. 5th in the Bluegrass last out, if he somehow does get in, he would be yet another “closer” in a race that is loaded with that style. He would need a complete pace meltdown to garner even a minor share in the gimmicks!
“SELECTIONS”
(#11) BOLT D’ORO 7-1 JOCKEY – VICTOR ESPINOZA
This classy son of MEDAGLIA D’ORO showed much promise in winning his first 3 starts as a 2 year old. After winning back to back Grade I Stakes the public made him the wagering choice in the BC Juvenile but he could manage no better than 3rd after a troubled trip. He has worked well at his Santa Anita base since chasing the likely post time favorite JUSTIFY in the Santa Anita Derby last out. While the pace scenario was against him that day, he should have a more honest pace to track on Saturday. He will make a move at the top of the stretch and should take the lead as they pass the 1/8th pole giving Mr. Espinoza his 4th Derby win!
(#14) MENDELSSOHN 5-1 JOCKEY – RYAN MOORE
As a half to the magnificent mare BEHOLDER nobody should be surprised of the inherent class this $3,000,000.00 purchase would possess. He has validated it with victories over 3 different track surfaces at 4 different race venues. Unlike the others signed on he has carried weight before and if he shipped as well this time as he did last Fall, he could be right there as they hit the wire!
(#9) HOFBURG 19-1 JOCKEY – IRAD ORTIZ
Trained by Bill Mott who in 1998 became the youngest trainer ever inducted into the Hall of Fame, this son of TAPIT should only get better as the distances increase. One can worry about enough foundation after only 3 lifetime starts but I don’t think he would be here if Mott was concerned about readiness or ability. He may spice up the exotics in a big way!
(#7) JUSTIFY 3-1 JOCKEY – MIKE SMITH
Given what he has done to date along with his Hall of Fame connections, it would be imprudent to leave him out!
