1 WAR STORY - Tiago J. Pereira (8-1) 2 QUIP - Florent Geroux (9-2) 3 PAVEL - Mario Gutierrez (7-2) 4 FOR THE TOP (ARG) - Martin Garcia (12-1) 5 SEEKING THE SOUL - John R. Velazquez (3-1) 6 HIGHER POWER - Flavien Prat (8-1) 7 TENFOLD - Mike E. Smith (8-1) 8 CAMPAIGN - Rafael Bejarano (6-1) 9 MONGOLIAN GROOM - Abel Cedillo (20-1) 10 DRAFT PICK - Joseph Talamo (20-1)
Post by unusualpete on Aug 16, 2019 23:54:20 GMT -5
feels like the 10 Draft Pick jumps up to post the upset in this spot far more than 5% of the time. am a big "they don't win all that often, just a lot more than their price suggests" guy. there's some game theory behind the pick. if successful in the race, maybe i can share postmortem. if not, nvm. he probably loses, but is imo is about 7-1 true odds.
Last Edit: Aug 17, 2019 19:23:43 GMT -5 by unusualpete: wrong program number
Post by bobtailnag on Aug 17, 2019 11:22:35 GMT -5
Very interesting sequence of works by Baffert with For the Top. He began working with him on May 8 with the first four works a week apart. A week after that the horse runs his first race for the barn and finishes last in a field of 4. Ten days later he's back on the track for another work. Note that almost all trainers, including BB, wait 3 to 4 weeks or more before putting a horse back on the track. I would not be surprised if that race was really just a one mile work.
Ten days after the race the horse is back on the track for five more works then another race a week later. This one was a mile and a half in a stakes race where he takes the lead out of the gate and holds it for 6 furlongs then weakened and finishes third in a field of five. Another ten day's later and he's back on the track for three more works and two days later it's the Pacific Classic.
I would like to know if BB really wanted Talamo to push him right out of the gate. I'm pretty sure we all know BB was looking at this race when that horse moved into the barn. I don't think that horse is good enough to win this race but I also think BB might be thinking he is – and that's enough for me.