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Saratoga 7/11
Jul 9, 2019 15:52:29 GMT -5
Post by tenfurlongs on Jul 9, 2019 15:52:29 GMT -5
Race 1-
Too slow/poor form: Poker Game, Curlin's New Moon, Americano.
Dropping in class off a layoff: Armament (3-1), Hollywood Handsome (4-1).
Dropping in class: Real Dan (5-2).
Good form at today's level: Blurred Line (10-1).
Moving up in class off a win: Fed Fever (12-1), Tiz No Bluff (5-1).
Analysis: Real Dan appears to be a useful NYB but couldn't get by his second condition. Seems like they are giving up on him and just want the purse/claim $. Armament is also a puzzle as he drops precipitously looking for the right spot, Gullo gets Irad to ride which won't help the price. Hollywood Handsome was second to Good Samaritan in the NO Handy last March, now he shows up here after being shelved since December, in the hands of Jorge Navarro. Good luck reading those tea leaves.
Verdict: PASS
Race 2-
Good form at today's level: Sayyaaf (6-5), Vehement (9-2), Declined (4-1).
Dirt-to-turf in good form: Sneakiness (8-1).
FTL in good form: Hurricane Jake (8-1).
Too slow/poor form: Cain V and D C, Camouflaged Kisser, Point of Humor.
First time starter: Duress.
Analysis: Sayyaaf is knocking on the door, turns back from 7F and is the likeliest winner at a short price. Declined woke up when placed on the grass, should be around at the finish. Not sure why Mott hasn't sent Vehement longer on the grass. Sneakiness goes dirt-to-turf for the sneaky Dutrow, could have a say.
Verdict: EX- 2,12/2,3,12
Race 3-
Analysis: Book play on Carlos Martin- Alw, stretchout, wins early in the meet. Potomac (2-1) fits the profile for the trainer, the track, and the pace.
Verdict: large WIN- 4 (at 8-5 +) & EX- 4/6,7 (at $10 +)
Race 4-
Analysis: They all have holes in them. Gosilently (9-2) could steal it on the front end. Autostrade (8-1) could be all-in first time in a claimer. Zap Daddy (4-1) wheels back on 7 days rest, drops and stretches out. Bootlegger (6-1) interests me. He tries every time, has both wins at this track. Needs to find a couple of lengths on Zap Daddy, might be comfortably ahead of that one after the first half mile. Price will be right with Reyes named.
Verdict: small WIN- 10
Race 5-
Analysis: 2yo NYB fillies MSW.
Verdict: PASS
Race 6-
Turf-to-dirt in good form: Bronx Bomber (10-1).
Drops from stakes company and turns back in distance: Veteran's Beach (3-1), Analyzethisandthat (9-2).
Stakes-placed, off layoff for new trainer: Pipes (7-2).
Drops from stakes company and turns back in distance: Veteran's Beach (3-1), Analyzethisandthat (9-2).
Stakes-placed, off layoff for new trainer: Pipes (7-2).
Analysis: Wide-open NYB first level turf sprint. Those four are the only ones I would use in the first two spots, however.
Verdict: EX- 6,10/1,6,9,10
Race 7-
Looks like fish-in-a-barrel for Giant Zinger (7-5), but I think Wish Upon (12-1) and Wegetdamunnys (6-1) could provide decent exacta prices in a ten-horse field.
Verdict: probably PASS, but will look at the EX will-pays for 4/3,10
Race 8-
Analysis: 2yo NYB fillies Stakes.
Verdict: PASS
Race 9-
Analysis: three horses interest me in this GIII turf-sprint, named after my favorite horse of all time, BTW. Abyssinian (7-2) is very quick, training lights-out at KEE for a trainer who excels at this. Listing (4-1) ships east with a solid record of turf-sprint stakes in tow. Call Paul (5-2) is the class of the field, question is whether he'll handle the turf. Watch the odds-board.
Verdict: Probably a PASS, unless one of those three goes off at 5-1 or better.
Race 10-
Analysis: 12-hose field of MdClm with not much established form. Save your money.
Verdict: PASS
good luck with all your wagers on opening day at the Spa!
TW
