LARRY'S PICKS for the 151st BELMONT STAKES!
Jun 5, 2019 10:01:51 GMT -5
Post by hezethebest on Jun 5, 2019 10:01:51 GMT -5
Analysis of the field for the 151st Belmont Stakes, the 3rd leg of the Triple Crown! For nearly 30 years I’ve told people that it takes “speed and stamina” to win the Belmont. It is rare to see the winner not blessed with a blend of both attributes. A relatively wide open field of 10 will load the gate on Saturday including Preakness winner WAR OF WILL as the lone runner to compete in all 3 legs this year. As usual, my analysis will be in the order of favoritism as I see the betting public setting the post time odds, with my personal “Selection” page on display at the end. I hope you enjoy the 151st Belmont Stakes!
For more than 30 years LARRY’S PICKS has provided Triple Crown, Travers Day, Breeders’ Cup and Saratoga private party group outings analysis as
“A GUIDELINE FOR INTELLIGENT SPECULATION”! Larry was a 4 time finalist in the “WORLD SERIES OF HANDICAPPING” at Penn National in the 90’s as well as being a 13 time qualifier for the “HORSE PLAYER WORLD SERIES”, a Las Vegas event that began in 2005! LARRY’S PICKS highest priced Grade I winning selections over the years include DOMEDRIVER ($54.00 and the “cold” exacta for $142.00 BC Mile) FERDINAND ($37.00 Kentucky Derby) SINGLETARY ($35.00 BC Mile) GLORIOUS EMPIRE ($33.40 Sword Dancer) TEXAS RED ($29.80 BC Juvenile) COLONIAL AFFAIR ($29.00 Belmont Stakes) SEA HERO ($27.00 Kentucky Derby) TOURIST ($26.80 and the “cold” superfecta for $4,448.00 BC Mile) WAVELL AVENUE ($22.00 BC F&M Sprint) TONALIST ($20.40 and the “cold” exacta for $348.00 Belmont Stakes) In addition, numerous IRS level scores have historically occupied the “Selection” page of LARRY’S PICKS, the largest of which was at Saratoga on Travers Day 2011 when the 4 runners from his analysis of the 3rd race combined for an $11,355.00 superfecta box. More recently in the 2017 Belmont Stakes, LARRY’S PICKS “Selection” page yielded the $4,486.00 superfecta when his top pick TAPWRIT outran the other 3 horses occupying the analytical space.
Larry LaTour
llatour1@twcny.rr.com
(#10) TACITUS 5-2 JOCKEY - JOSE ORTIZ
Off since a solid effort for 4th in Louisville before advancing to the show spot following the DQ of MAXIMUM SECURITY, this son of TAPIT will likely share the favorite’s role with Preakness winner, WAR OF WILL. A late runner by nature who won the Grade II Wood Memorial and Tampa Bay Derby just prior to the Kentucky Derby, he drew the widest slot but will want to be a bit closer to what might be a moderate pace in order to show his best. Look for him to drop in toward the rail to save some ground and then make a late run past what Ortiz hopes will be tiring runners.
(#9) WAR OF WILL 5-2 JOCKEY - TYLER GAFFALIONE
This 3 time Graded Stakes winner including the Grade I Preakness has the right style and breeding to negotiate the marathon 1 ½ mile distance given a clean trip. The only potential knocks are that he is making his 6th start of the year and he will be heavily bet. These are not insignificant when searching for value in a race at a distance that few if any of these will ever try again. This is a tough call on a horse who also draws wide. He has shown considerable ability but he may have already peaked!
(#7) SIR WINSTON 5-1 JOCKEY - JOEL ROSARIO
Like WAR OF WILL this son of AWESOME AGAIN is trained by Mark Casse. He ran the best race of his career while closing to be 2nd last out in the Grade III Peter Pan Stakes, a race that had a quick early pace. He may want to revert to the stalking style he displayed over synthetic surfaces early in his career lest he be subjected to the mercy of a much slower pace scenario on Saturday. Rosario won this race on TONALIST in 2014 keying the “cold” exacta from LARRY’S PICKS at a robust $348.00! A “bounce” candidate, sans a change in tactics, look for him late if at all.
(#8) INTREPID HEART 7-1 JOCKEY - JOHN VELAZQUEZ
This lightly raced Kentucky bred was the beaten favorite in the Peter Pan Stakes last out, a race that saw him suffer a stumbling start. 1 of 2 being saddled by Todd Pletcher, he is also 1 of 3 sired by the prolific TAPIT who has fathered 3 of the last 5 Belmont winners including LARRY’S PICKS top selections TONALIST in 2014 and TAPWRIT in 2017! The breeding is strong on both sides as maternal Grandsire TOUCH GOLD foiled the 1997 Triple Crown bid by SILVER CHARM when he prevailed in the Belmont. He has worked well since his last and while sporting an ascending speed figure pattern he could take another step forward on Saturday.
(#5) BOURBON WAR 8-1 JOCKEY - MIKE SMITH
The 1 race experiment with blinkers is over as this well connected son of TAPIT tries to regain good form after doing little running in the Preakness 3 weeks back. Much was expected from him in that race after he failed to draw into the Kentucky Derby field but he never fired in Baltimore. Given some pace and a well timed move he could close for a share beneath the 2018 Triple Crown winning jockey, Mike Smith!
(#4) TAX 9-1 JOCKEY - IRAD ORTIZ
This Kentucky bred by ARCH has been off since a disappointing 15th place finish in Louisville. He may not have cared for the sloppy conditions he found that day, especially from his tricky inside draw. Top jockey Irad Ortiz will ride him for the 1st time on Saturday and an improved showing is quite likely in the cards.
(#3) MASTER FENCER 10-1 JOCKEY - JULIEN LEPAROUX
This Japanese bred son of JUST A WAY closed from 19th to 7th in the Derby and was beaten less than 4 lengths for the win. Jockey Julien Leparoux may have a better gauge of the talent level now on a colt who has a solid foundation from a series of distance races throughout his young career. Like a few others signed on he may be at the mercy of the pace scenario and he will require expert handling and a well timed move in order to close for a share. He appears playable, especially underneath in gimmicks!
(#6) SPINOFF 13-1 JOCKEY - JAVIER CASTELLANO
While some horses outrun their odds such as COUNTRY HOUSE wearing the roses at 65-1, this 52-1 shot and LARRY’S PICKS top pick 5 weeks back gained an early forward position only to back out of it in a major way when the jockey asked for some serious run, effectively running to his longshot status over the sloppy conditions. Off since the Derby, he had been working fairly well until his last breeze, a 5 furlong move on the 1st that was on the slow side. Johnny Velazquez had his choice of this runner or INTREPID HEART and he chose the latter. One may recall that he had similar options in Louisville when he chose to ride CODE OF HONOR over this colt and we know how that turned out. I’m getting mixed messages on a colt who actually has the perfect style to go well at 1 ½ miles and while he’ll not be my top pick this time around, I wouldn’t be surprised if he shows up with a solid run beneath new pilot Javier Castellano!
(#2) EVERFAST 19-1 JOCKEY - LUIS SAEZ
The most experienced colt in the race making his 12th lifetime start is this son of TAKE CHARGE INDY. A fast closing 2nd when last seen in the Preakness the connections will lose the services of Joel Rosario to SIR WINSTON but Luis Saez should prove a solid replacement. That said, the colt hasn’t won since his debut and a repeat of his last is probably unlikely.
(#1) JOEVIA 35-1 JOCKEY - JOSE LEZCANO
This winner of the Long Branch Stakes last out should inherit the pace duties based on the prevalent styles of the other 9 signed on, especially having drawn the rail. If you like him you may get an early thrill but it is unlikely he will make an impact when the serious running begins!
“SELECTIONS”
1st - (#4) TAX 9-1 JOCKEY - IRAD ORTIZ
This colt has much more speed than he was able to employ from his inside draw in Louisville and while he should not have had an issue with the sloppy conditions, I consider the race a “toss”. Possessing a good tracking gear, he drew a perfect post to slip in behind the speedy JOEVIA saving ground early on and when the real running begins he may get a jump on those positioned further off the pace. The price will be right to take a stab in a very wide open race.
2nd - (#10) TACITUS 5-2 JOCKEY - JOSE ORTIZ
The ability to gain some early position may dictate how well this son of TAPIT fares from his wide draw. He was able to get past TAX in the late stages of the Grade II Wood Memorial and like the Ortiz brothers fairly often do, these 2 horses may run together again!
3rd - (#6) SPINOFF 13-1 JOCKEY - JAVIER CASTELLANO
I look for this son of HARD SPUN to secure a forward placing and grind out a decent run as 1 who might appreciate the marathon distance more than some of the others.
4th - (#9) WAR OF WILL 5-2 JOCKEY - TYLER GAFFALIONE
For more than 30 years LARRY’S PICKS has provided Triple Crown, Travers Day, Breeders’ Cup and Saratoga private party group outings analysis as
“A GUIDELINE FOR INTELLIGENT SPECULATION”! Larry was a 4 time finalist in the “WORLD SERIES OF HANDICAPPING” at Penn National in the 90’s as well as being a 13 time qualifier for the “HORSE PLAYER WORLD SERIES”, a Las Vegas event that began in 2005! LARRY’S PICKS highest priced Grade I winning selections over the years include DOMEDRIVER ($54.00 and the “cold” exacta for $142.00 BC Mile) FERDINAND ($37.00 Kentucky Derby) SINGLETARY ($35.00 BC Mile) GLORIOUS EMPIRE ($33.40 Sword Dancer) TEXAS RED ($29.80 BC Juvenile) COLONIAL AFFAIR ($29.00 Belmont Stakes) SEA HERO ($27.00 Kentucky Derby) TOURIST ($26.80 and the “cold” superfecta for $4,448.00 BC Mile) WAVELL AVENUE ($22.00 BC F&M Sprint) TONALIST ($20.40 and the “cold” exacta for $348.00 Belmont Stakes) In addition, numerous IRS level scores have historically occupied the “Selection” page of LARRY’S PICKS, the largest of which was at Saratoga on Travers Day 2011 when the 4 runners from his analysis of the 3rd race combined for an $11,355.00 superfecta box. More recently in the 2017 Belmont Stakes, LARRY’S PICKS “Selection” page yielded the $4,486.00 superfecta when his top pick TAPWRIT outran the other 3 horses occupying the analytical space.
While the major race days come and go, for year round stimulating conversation on horse racing in general visit the finest horse chat site on the entire world wide web, www.UpInClass.com Good luck to all and may they all come back safe!
llatour1@twcny.rr.com
(#10) TACITUS 5-2 JOCKEY - JOSE ORTIZ
Off since a solid effort for 4th in Louisville before advancing to the show spot following the DQ of MAXIMUM SECURITY, this son of TAPIT will likely share the favorite’s role with Preakness winner, WAR OF WILL. A late runner by nature who won the Grade II Wood Memorial and Tampa Bay Derby just prior to the Kentucky Derby, he drew the widest slot but will want to be a bit closer to what might be a moderate pace in order to show his best. Look for him to drop in toward the rail to save some ground and then make a late run past what Ortiz hopes will be tiring runners.
(#9) WAR OF WILL 5-2 JOCKEY - TYLER GAFFALIONE
This 3 time Graded Stakes winner including the Grade I Preakness has the right style and breeding to negotiate the marathon 1 ½ mile distance given a clean trip. The only potential knocks are that he is making his 6th start of the year and he will be heavily bet. These are not insignificant when searching for value in a race at a distance that few if any of these will ever try again. This is a tough call on a horse who also draws wide. He has shown considerable ability but he may have already peaked!
(#7) SIR WINSTON 5-1 JOCKEY - JOEL ROSARIO
Like WAR OF WILL this son of AWESOME AGAIN is trained by Mark Casse. He ran the best race of his career while closing to be 2nd last out in the Grade III Peter Pan Stakes, a race that had a quick early pace. He may want to revert to the stalking style he displayed over synthetic surfaces early in his career lest he be subjected to the mercy of a much slower pace scenario on Saturday. Rosario won this race on TONALIST in 2014 keying the “cold” exacta from LARRY’S PICKS at a robust $348.00! A “bounce” candidate, sans a change in tactics, look for him late if at all.
(#8) INTREPID HEART 7-1 JOCKEY - JOHN VELAZQUEZ
This lightly raced Kentucky bred was the beaten favorite in the Peter Pan Stakes last out, a race that saw him suffer a stumbling start. 1 of 2 being saddled by Todd Pletcher, he is also 1 of 3 sired by the prolific TAPIT who has fathered 3 of the last 5 Belmont winners including LARRY’S PICKS top selections TONALIST in 2014 and TAPWRIT in 2017! The breeding is strong on both sides as maternal Grandsire TOUCH GOLD foiled the 1997 Triple Crown bid by SILVER CHARM when he prevailed in the Belmont. He has worked well since his last and while sporting an ascending speed figure pattern he could take another step forward on Saturday.
(#5) BOURBON WAR 8-1 JOCKEY - MIKE SMITH
The 1 race experiment with blinkers is over as this well connected son of TAPIT tries to regain good form after doing little running in the Preakness 3 weeks back. Much was expected from him in that race after he failed to draw into the Kentucky Derby field but he never fired in Baltimore. Given some pace and a well timed move he could close for a share beneath the 2018 Triple Crown winning jockey, Mike Smith!
(#4) TAX 9-1 JOCKEY - IRAD ORTIZ
This Kentucky bred by ARCH has been off since a disappointing 15th place finish in Louisville. He may not have cared for the sloppy conditions he found that day, especially from his tricky inside draw. Top jockey Irad Ortiz will ride him for the 1st time on Saturday and an improved showing is quite likely in the cards.
(#3) MASTER FENCER 10-1 JOCKEY - JULIEN LEPAROUX
This Japanese bred son of JUST A WAY closed from 19th to 7th in the Derby and was beaten less than 4 lengths for the win. Jockey Julien Leparoux may have a better gauge of the talent level now on a colt who has a solid foundation from a series of distance races throughout his young career. Like a few others signed on he may be at the mercy of the pace scenario and he will require expert handling and a well timed move in order to close for a share. He appears playable, especially underneath in gimmicks!
(#6) SPINOFF 13-1 JOCKEY - JAVIER CASTELLANO
While some horses outrun their odds such as COUNTRY HOUSE wearing the roses at 65-1, this 52-1 shot and LARRY’S PICKS top pick 5 weeks back gained an early forward position only to back out of it in a major way when the jockey asked for some serious run, effectively running to his longshot status over the sloppy conditions. Off since the Derby, he had been working fairly well until his last breeze, a 5 furlong move on the 1st that was on the slow side. Johnny Velazquez had his choice of this runner or INTREPID HEART and he chose the latter. One may recall that he had similar options in Louisville when he chose to ride CODE OF HONOR over this colt and we know how that turned out. I’m getting mixed messages on a colt who actually has the perfect style to go well at 1 ½ miles and while he’ll not be my top pick this time around, I wouldn’t be surprised if he shows up with a solid run beneath new pilot Javier Castellano!
(#2) EVERFAST 19-1 JOCKEY - LUIS SAEZ
The most experienced colt in the race making his 12th lifetime start is this son of TAKE CHARGE INDY. A fast closing 2nd when last seen in the Preakness the connections will lose the services of Joel Rosario to SIR WINSTON but Luis Saez should prove a solid replacement. That said, the colt hasn’t won since his debut and a repeat of his last is probably unlikely.
(#1) JOEVIA 35-1 JOCKEY - JOSE LEZCANO
This winner of the Long Branch Stakes last out should inherit the pace duties based on the prevalent styles of the other 9 signed on, especially having drawn the rail. If you like him you may get an early thrill but it is unlikely he will make an impact when the serious running begins!
“SELECTIONS”
1st - (#4) TAX 9-1 JOCKEY - IRAD ORTIZ
This colt has much more speed than he was able to employ from his inside draw in Louisville and while he should not have had an issue with the sloppy conditions, I consider the race a “toss”. Possessing a good tracking gear, he drew a perfect post to slip in behind the speedy JOEVIA saving ground early on and when the real running begins he may get a jump on those positioned further off the pace. The price will be right to take a stab in a very wide open race.
2nd - (#10) TACITUS 5-2 JOCKEY - JOSE ORTIZ
The ability to gain some early position may dictate how well this son of TAPIT fares from his wide draw. He was able to get past TAX in the late stages of the Grade II Wood Memorial and like the Ortiz brothers fairly often do, these 2 horses may run together again!
3rd - (#6) SPINOFF 13-1 JOCKEY - JAVIER CASTELLANO
I look for this son of HARD SPUN to secure a forward placing and grind out a decent run as 1 who might appreciate the marathon distance more than some of the others.
4th - (#9) WAR OF WILL 5-2 JOCKEY - TYLER GAFFALIONE
The hard luck rail runner from the Derby and subsequent Preakness champ needs no introduction but in making his 6th start of the year, he might need a freshening! That said, it is hard to leave him out of the superfecta mix!
LL
